Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Omaha, NE

706 
WWUS53 KOAX 100555
SVSOAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
1255 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

IAC155-NEC053-055-155-177-100605-
/O.EXP.KOAX.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-210710T0600Z/
Pottawattamie IA-Washington NE-Dodge NE-Douglas NE-Saunders NE-
1255 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL POTTAWATTAMIE...
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN DODGE...DOUGLAS AND NORTHEASTERN
SAUNDERS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 100 AM CDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
southwestern Iowa...and east central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4125 9582 4126 9647 4145 9647 4144 9582
TIME...MOT...LOC 0555Z 328DEG 25KT 4107 9580 4107 9631 

$$

Petersen

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1237 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

Things starting to maybe become a little more clear on how things
will pan out this afternoon/evening, but some key questions still
remain: 1. Where will the warm front set up? 2. Will forcing be
strong enough to break the fairly stout cap over the area (per the
KOAX 19Z sounding)? As of around 2:30 PM, radar/satellite/surface
obs show the warm front from roughly Tekamah, NE, eastward to
near Carroll, IA, and south/southeastward toward Creston, IA.
Difficult to say how much farther northeastward it makes it, as
outflow from a significant hail-producing storm that moved through
the Des Moines metro area could slow its progress a fair amount.
As far as forcing, could see some enhanced convergence with that
outflow, but may need to end up waiting for a strengthening low
level jet early this evening to get anything to go, which seems to
be the idea held by the CAMs, and those still have very little,
if anything, that initiates in the forecast area. That said, if
something does get going, plenty of instability with just over
3000 J/kg of MUCAPE per the KOAX 19Z sounding, and decent shear
would suggest supercells capable of all hazards, especially right
near the warm front where low level shear is likely enhanced. So
while severe storms aren't particularly likely in the forecast
area early this evening, still worth keeping a close eye on, as
potential is there.

Higher confidence that the greater severe weather risk will be
overnight as convection currently going up in SE WY into the NE
panhandle is expected to congeal into an MCS and move eastward
into the area toward 11 PM. Expect a damaging wind and hail threat
with those storms, as plenty of instability will remain in place
overnight. One question with regarding those storms will be cold
pool maintenance, as RAP guidance suggests 0-3 km shear values
generally less than 30 kts ahead of the line, but still should be
sufficient for at least some level of organization.

Main severe storm threat should exit the area by 5 AM or so, but
expect scattered showers and storms to persist through Saturday as
a mid/upper level trough currently over Montana digs into the
area and eventually cuts off. In addition to precip, this will
bring much cooler weather, with highs in the 70s for many both
Saturday and Sunday. Latest guidance suggests the low may stick
around the area a little bit longer than previously thought, which
could lead to continued showers and storms into at least Sunday,
so increased precip chances a bit through the Sunday morning
hours. May end up needing to go higher and possibly into Monday in
future forecasts.

Low should eventually push off toward the Great Lakes, bringing a
return to the mid and upper 80s by Tuesday. However, another bit
of shortwave energy and cold front look to slide through sometime
Tuesday night into Thursday bringing our next chance at precip,
though still some differences on exact timing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

Ongoing thunderstorms at KOMA and KLNK will push through in the
first hour of the TAF cycle. Periods of showers and a few
thunderstorms are expected through much of the TAF cycle leaving
MVFR to IFR conditions through much of the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Kern

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
343 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-101200-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
343 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

Though not likely, a few strong to severe thunderstorms could
develop across extreme southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa late
this afternoon into this evening. Any storms that do develop in
this area will be capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds. A few tornadoes would also be possible.

A more widespread severe weather episode is possible across
portions of the area later this evening. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop across central Nebraska and
spread east through the area from around 10 PM through the early
morning hours Saturday. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary hazards with these storms.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Saturday however severe
storms are not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Friday

Some lingering non-severe storms are possible into Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed across portions of southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa this evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1232 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1232 AM     TSTM WND GST     7 ENE OMAHA             41.30N 95.89W
07/10/2021  M75 MPH          DOUGLAS            NE   ASOS

&&

PF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1233 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1231 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 N FIRTH               40.55N 96.60W
07/10/2021  M59 MPH          LANCASTER          NE   PUBLIC

&&

TSN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1236 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1206 AM     TSTM WND GST     11 ESE HANCOCK          41.32N 95.18W
07/10/2021  M61 MPH          POTTAWATTAMIE      IA   UNKNOWN

            IOWA MESONET SITE.

&&

TSN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1239 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     BURCHARD                40.15N 96.35W
07/10/2021                   PAWNEE             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD.

&&

PF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1241 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1214 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNW OMAHA             41.26N 95.94W
07/10/2021  M78 MPH          DOUGLAS            NE   PUBLIC

&&

TSN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1242 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1239 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW PAPILLION         41.13N 96.06W
07/10/2021                   SARPY              NE   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: 3-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN;
            POWER POLES BROKEN.

&&

PF