Special Weather Statement, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
722 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

Things starting to maybe become a little more clear on how things
will pan out this afternoon/evening, but some key questions still
remain: 1. Where will the warm front set up? 2. Will forcing be
strong enough to break the fairly stout cap over the area (per the
KOAX 19Z sounding)? As of around 2:30 PM, radar/satellite/surface
obs show the warm front from roughly Tekamah, NE, eastward to
near Carroll, IA, and south/southeastward toward Creston, IA.
Difficult to say how much farther northeastward it makes it, as
outflow from a significant hail-producing storm that moved through
the Des Moines metro area could slow its progress a fair amount.
As far as forcing, could see some enhanced convergence with that
outflow, but may need to end up waiting for a strengthening low
level jet early this evening to get anything to go, which seems to
be the idea held by the CAMs, and those still have very little,
if anything, that initiates in the forecast area. That said, if
something does get going, plenty of instability with just over
3000 J/kg of MUCAPE per the KOAX 19Z sounding, and decent shear
would suggest supercells capable of all hazards, especially right
near the warm front where low level shear is likely enhanced. So
while severe storms aren't particularly likely in the forecast
area early this evening, still worth keeping a close eye on, as
potential is there.

Higher confidence that the greater severe weather risk will be
overnight as convection currently going up in SE WY into the NE
panhandle is expected to congeal into an MCS and move eastward
into the area toward 11 PM. Expect a damaging wind and hail threat
with those storms, as plenty of instability will remain in place
overnight. One question with regarding those storms will be cold
pool maintenance, as RAP guidance suggests 0-3 km shear values
generally less than 30 kts ahead of the line, but still should be
sufficient for at least some level of organization.

Main severe storm threat should exit the area by 5 AM or so, but
expect scattered showers and storms to persist through Saturday as
a mid/upper level trough currently over Montana digs into the
area and eventually cuts off. In addition to precip, this will
bring much cooler weather, with highs in the 70s for many both
Saturday and Sunday. Latest guidance suggests the low may stick
around the area a little bit longer than previously thought, which
could lead to continued showers and storms into at least Sunday,
so increased precip chances a bit through the Sunday morning
hours. May end up needing to go higher and possibly into Monday in
future forecasts.

Low should eventually push off toward the Great Lakes, bringing a
return to the mid and upper 80s by Tuesday. However, another bit
of shortwave energy and cold front look to slide through sometime
Tuesday night into Thursday bringing our next chance at precip,
though still some differences on exact timing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

VFR conditions will continue until 06-07Z when complex of
thunderstorms at this time over the Nebraska Panhandle moves east
into the TAF sites. Wind gusts greater than 30-40 kts can be
expected with these storms as they move quickly west to east. MVFR
and IFR ceilings are likely in these storms. After the lines
passes, other thunderstorms and showers will linger with MVFR
conditions possible in vicinity of the storms.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Smith

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
343 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-101200-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
343 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

Though not likely, a few strong to severe thunderstorms could
develop across extreme southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa late
this afternoon into this evening. Any storms that do develop in
this area will be capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds. A few tornadoes would also be possible.

A more widespread severe weather episode is possible across
portions of the area later this evening. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop across central Nebraska and
spread east through the area from around 10 PM through the early
morning hours Saturday. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary hazards with these storms.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Saturday however severe
storms are not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Friday

Some lingering non-severe storms are possible into Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed across portions of southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa this evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
950 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

NEZ016-017-030-031-042-100300-
Madison NE-Pierce NE-Platte NE-Boone NE-Antelope NE-
950 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MADISON...NORTHWESTERN
PLATTE...SOUTHWESTERN PIERCE...ANTELOPE AND BOONE COUNTIES UNTIL 1000
PM CDT...

At 950 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Orchard to 9 miles southwest of Elgin.
Movement was southeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Albion, Neligh, Newman Grove, St. Edward, Elgin, Clearwater, Cedar
Rapids, Petersburg, Oakdale, Meadow Grove, Tilden, Primrose, Loretto
and The Highway 14 And 56 Junction.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
northeastern Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4214 9770 4153 9772 4152 9781 4153 9788
      4152 9788 4151 9804 4150 9804 4148 9828
      4233 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 0250Z 301DEG 43KT 4229 9825 4193 9825

DeWald