Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
410 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Saturday/...An upper trof oriented
near/along the East Coast moves gradually off into the western
Atlantic through the period, and in the process brings a rather
weak shortwave trof southward through the forecast area. In
response, an upper ridge which extends from the eastern Gulf to
near the ArkLaTex retreats from the eastern Gulf while expanding
over the southern/central Plains and building into the southeast
states. A modest surface low located just east of the Florida
peninsula remains nearly in place during the period. A very weak
surface trof extending from the surface low into northern Alabama
moves slowly through the forecast area tonight, though appears to
attempt to reform along the southern portion of the area on
Saturday, aided by a sea breeze circulation. MLCAPE values this
afternoon and Saturday afternoon look to range from 1500-2500
J/kg. While abundant deep layer moisture remains in place over the
area with precipitable water values typically ranging from
2.0-2.2 inches, model soundings show some mid level dry air is
present. With weak shear, this environment looks supportive of
some strong storms, and an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled
out with strong gusty winds as the main threat. Am concerned that
despite the unstable and moist environment during the period,
forcing associated with the sea breeze, surface trof and shortwave
trof is just too weak to support much more than scattered
convective coverage this afternoon and Saturday afternoon. Have
limited pops this afternoon to good chance at best as a
consequence with similar, chance to good chance pops, following
for Saturday. Lows tonight range from the lower/mid 70s inland to
the mid/upper 70s at the coast. Highs this afternoon and on
Saturday will be mostly in the lower 90s except for mid 90s over
portions of south central Alabama. Heat index values both this
afternoon and Saturday afternoon will be mostly 102-107 with a few
higher spots possible but not with sufficient coverage to warrant
consideration of a Heat Advisory. A low risk of rip currents is
expected through Saturday. /29

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...Broad mid to
upper level ridging continues to stretch across much of the U.S
throughout the short term. At the surface, an inverted trough
shifts across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico as
it attempts to close off into a weak low pressure. Models
continue to show this surface feature progressing westward across
the Gulf and keep it south of the forecast area. With little in
terms of forcing, expecting isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each day, with Monday having slightly lower
coverages around 20-30%. Convection will follow a diurnal pattern
with showers and storms initiating over the Gulf and coast in the
early morning and then transitioning inland throughout the
afternoon and evening. Showers and storms should begin diminishing
later in the evening due to the loss of daytime heating and
instability. Seasonal temps for this time of year continue into
the short term as highs inland climb into the lower to mid 90s
each afternoon. Along the immediate coast, highs will reach into
the upper 80s to low 90s each day. Dew points generally in the mid
to upper 70s will help support area wide heat indices around 102
to 107 degrees. /14

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...A mid to upper level
trough begins to dig across the northeastern U.S. on Tuesday and
Wednesday as the mid to upper level ridge over the much of the
western and central U.S. builds. This ridging will likely help keep
the the trough from digging further south into the forecast area.
Overall, the region will be in between the ridge to our west and the
trough to our east throughout the period. At the surface, weak
ridging over the western Atlantic begins to build back over the
Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf by mid-week. Moisture
also starts to increase by mid-week with PWAT's ranging between 2
and 2.3 inches area wide. Therefore, isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms can be expected each day, with Wednesday having
the highest coverage around 60-70%. Temperatures continue to soar
through the period with highs generally in the lower to mid 90s.
Meanwhile, lows only dip down into the lower to mid 70s inland with
mid to upper 70s along the coast. Heat indices continue to hang
around the 102 to 106 degree each day. /14

&&

.MARINE...No impacts are expected through the period except for
winds and seas higher near isolated to scattered showers and storms.
/29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
405 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

ALZ261-232145-
Mobile Inland AL-
405 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHEASTERN MOBILE COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 405 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles west of
Movico, or 6 miles southeast of Citronelle, moving south at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Creola, Axis, Mount Vernon and Movico.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3108 8825 3114 8805 3114 8803 3093 8791
      3092 8791 3093 8792 3094 8792 3093 8793
      3093 8795 3091 8796 3088 8799 3083 8815
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 340DEG 13KT 3105 8812

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
442 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

ALZ051-052-MSZ067-232230-
Choctaw AL-Washington AL-Wayne MS-
442 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN CHOCTAW...NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND WAYNE COUNTIES
UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 441 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located just north of
Waynesboro, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesboro, Clara, Millry, Buckatunna and Silas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3183 8889 3183 8876 3185 8865 3190 8844
      3161 8818 3143 8864
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 328DEG 17KT 3170 8863

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
530 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

ALZ052-MSZ067-076-232300-
Washington AL-Greene MS-Wayne MS-
530 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE AND NORTHEASTERN GREENE
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 530 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles northeast
of State Line, or 10 miles west of Chatom, moving southeast at 15
mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 35 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Chatom, State Line, Buckatunna and Fruitdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8809 3127 8845 3162 8863 3170 8840
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 330DEG 15KT 3149 8843

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
535 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

MSZ075-078-079-232315-
Stone MS-Perry MS-George MS-
535 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHWESTERN GEORGE...SOUTHERN PERRY AND NORTHEASTERN STONE COUNTIES
UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 534 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles east of
Brooklyn, or 14 miles northeast of Wiggins, moving southeast at 15
mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 35 mph will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
George, southern Perry and northeastern Stone Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3113 8901 3093 8878 3082 8896 3090 8914
      3100 8914 3105 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 325DEG 15KT 3105 8904

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
541 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

ALZ264-266-232330-
Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-
541 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 541 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located over Summerdale,
or near Robertsdale, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 35 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Foley, Robertsdale, Summerdale, Silverhill and Elberta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 8764 3053 8783 3059 8766 3049 8747
      3034 8760 3036 8760 3036 8761 3033 8761
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 331DEG 12KT 3051 8769

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
609 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

ALZ264-266-240000-
Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-
609 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...SOUTH
CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 608 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located over Magnolia
Springs, or near Foley, moving south at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Magnolia Springs and Bon Secour.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3025 8780 3026 8777 3030 8773 3029 8775
      3033 8781 3039 8785 3039 8781 3040 8782
      3044 8774 3027 8758 3026 8770 3024 8774
      3024 8775 3025 8776 3024 8778 3024 8776
      3023 8779
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 339DEG 12KT 3039 8774