Special Marine Warning 129, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
402 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Current-Tonight... A little more active this afternoon than the
last couple of days, with scattered showers and lightning storms
ongoing and pushing towards the east coast from the west around
15 to 20 mph. These showers and storms are mainly from Orange
county northward, and from Okeechobee county southward. The 15Z
XMR sounding continues to show a slight increase in low level
moisture from what it has been the last couple days. Rain chances
will range from 40-50 percent across Lake/Volusia counties,
decreasing to around 30 percent farther south across the rest of
east central FL where mid level drier air will continue to limit
shower/storm development for much of the afternoon. Greatest
chance for storms south of Orlando will be with any late day
boundary collisions with the east coast sea breeze toward the I-95
corridor.

Hot and humid once again this afternoon with afternoon highs in
the low to mid 90s. Continued dewpoints in the 70s will cause it
to feel hotter, with the peak heat index range from 101-107.

Monday-Wednesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Broad mid
level trough will remain in place over the eastern CONUS through
mid week as short wave energy drops SSE across the mid-MS and OH
Valleys Tue- Wed. This will keep a surface trough in place over
the SE CONUS, while displacing the Atlantic ridge axis across SOFL
Mon-Tue, lifting north to Lake Okeechobee Wed and near the Cape
by late Wed night.

South of the trough, mean layer moisture will increase over ECFL
with light SE surface and steering flow favoring the eastern side
of the peninsula for diurnal showers/TS chances, especially Tue-
Wed (60-70 POPs areawide), with Mon being more transitional with 60
to 70 across the north, and 40 to 50 across the south.

Heat Index values Mon afternoon will reach 101-107 areawide, then
Higher coverage of clouds/precip should keep values slightly
lower (L100s) for Tue-Wed.

Thursday-Sunday... (Previous Discussion) Eastern CONUS mid level
trough lifts out to the NW, allowing a strong mid level ridge to
rebuild over Florida. This in turn will

allows the western flank of the Atlantic surface ridge to
build northward, backing winds to light S-SE. This should lead to
lower coverage of diurnal precip doe the eastern side of the
peninsula. Since the NBM doesn't want to recognize this, have
continued to substantially undercut its hyper aggressive POPs
(categorical beneath a strengthening mid level ridge is dubious, and
that's putting it mildly). Will keep likely POPs (60) in place Thu,
with scattered (50, except 40 in Martin Co) Fri-Sun. Temps look to
be fairly close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period.
A slightly more active afternoon than the last couple days, with
showers and lightning storms impacting MCO, LEE, SFB and DAB; as
well as VRB and FPR. Some of these storms have been fairly gusty
with gusts up to 35 KT. Cell movement is towards the east around
15-20KT. SCT showers and lightning storms through late afternoon
and early evening are expected, with storms being capable of
producing brief MVFR/IFR CIGs/VIS. Left TEMPOs out currently, but
will amend as needed. Rain chances decrease after sundown, with
the highest chances being along the coastal sites. Winds will be
SW 5-10 KT this afternoon and overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Current-Tonight... Scattered showers ongoing along the coast and
near shore waters. Cell movement is towards the east around 15-20
KT. Current buoy 41009 observations show seas are 1 ft with SSE
winds around 12 KT. Winds are expected to veer towards the S/SW
overnight with wind speeds increasing to around 10-15 KT. Seas
will be 1-3 feet. Continued isolated to scattered showers and
lightning storms will be possible through early evening as cells
move offshore. Main storm impacts today will be cloud-to water
lightning strikes and gusty winds.

Mon-Thu... (Modified Previous Discussion) Light to moderate SW
flow (8-13kt) Mon- Tue, backing to south Wed and SSE Thu. Seas
2-3ft. The main concern for boaters will be increasing coverage of
showers/TS, a few of which could be strong as they move offshore
during the afternoon/early evening. The risk will decrease
slightly Wed and especially Thu as surface and steering winds
slowly back/weaken.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  92  75  90 /  20  70  40  70
MCO  76  93  76  92 /  10  60  20  70
MLB  77  93  76  92 /  20  60  40  60
VRB  76  93  75  92 /  20  60  40  60
LEE  77  92  77  90 /  20  70  40  70
SFB  76  92  76  91 /  20  70  30  70
ORL  78  93  77  91 /  10  60  30  70
FPR  75  92  75  91 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Watson/Negron/Haley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
838 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-020600-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
838 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered lightning storms will continue through late evening
from Osceola and Brevard counties northward. A few strong
storms will be possible, producing frequent lightning strikes,
gusty winds up to 45 mph and locally heavy rainfall. Movement
will be toward the east northeast around 15 mph.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A few strong storms will be capable of producing wind gusts of
35 to 40 knots as they shift eastward across the intracoastal
and nearshore Atlantic waters of Volusia and Brevard counties.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Small craft should exercise caution for south to southwest winds
15 to 20 knots over the open Atlantic.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
Coverage of afternoon and evening showers and lightning storms
will increase into early to mid week, becoming scattered to
numerous across the area. Frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes, torrential downpours, and wind gusts up to 40 to 45 mph
will be the main threats. Localized poor drainage flooding is
possible in areas that receive heavy rainfall.

Heat indices will again reach between 101 and 107 across most of
the local area on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
910 PM EDT SUN AUG 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 25 ENE PORT CANAVERAL   28.51N 80.18W
08/01/2021  M50 MPH          AMZ572             FL   BUOY

            BUY 41009 MEASURES WIND GUST OF 43KT/50MPH FROM SW

&&

JRS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
924 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

FLZ045-047-053-147-020230-
Southern Brevard County FL-Osceola FL-Northern Brevard County FL-
Orange FL-
924 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BREVARD...SOUTHEASTERN
ORANGE AND NORTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM EDT...

At 923 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Lone Cabbage Fish Camp, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Melbourne, Rockledge, Cocoa, Cocoa Beach and Satellite Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2839 8056 2834 8057 2814 8054 2807 8088
      2835 8101 2861 8055 2854 8052 2845 8050
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 239DEG 16KT 2826 8085

Smith