Special Marine Warning 128, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
402 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Current-Tonight... A little more active this afternoon than the
last couple of days, with scattered showers and lightning storms
ongoing and pushing towards the east coast from the west around
15 to 20 mph. These showers and storms are mainly from Orange
county northward, and from Okeechobee county southward. The 15Z
XMR sounding continues to show a slight increase in low level
moisture from what it has been the last couple days. Rain chances
will range from 40-50 percent across Lake/Volusia counties,
decreasing to around 30 percent farther south across the rest of
east central FL where mid level drier air will continue to limit
shower/storm development for much of the afternoon. Greatest
chance for storms south of Orlando will be with any late day
boundary collisions with the east coast sea breeze toward the I-95
corridor.

Hot and humid once again this afternoon with afternoon highs in
the low to mid 90s. Continued dewpoints in the 70s will cause it
to feel hotter, with the peak heat index range from 101-107.

Monday-Wednesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Broad mid
level trough will remain in place over the eastern CONUS through
mid week as short wave energy drops SSE across the mid-MS and OH
Valleys Tue- Wed. This will keep a surface trough in place over
the SE CONUS, while displacing the Atlantic ridge axis across SOFL
Mon-Tue, lifting north to Lake Okeechobee Wed and near the Cape
by late Wed night.

South of the trough, mean layer moisture will increase over ECFL
with light SE surface and steering flow favoring the eastern side
of the peninsula for diurnal showers/TS chances, especially Tue-
Wed (60-70 POPs areawide), with Mon being more transitional with 60
to 70 across the north, and 40 to 50 across the south.

Heat Index values Mon afternoon will reach 101-107 areawide, then
Higher coverage of clouds/precip should keep values slightly
lower (L100s) for Tue-Wed.

Thursday-Sunday... (Previous Discussion) Eastern CONUS mid level
trough lifts out to the NW, allowing a strong mid level ridge to
rebuild over Florida. This in turn will

allows the western flank of the Atlantic surface ridge to
build northward, backing winds to light S-SE. This should lead to
lower coverage of diurnal precip doe the eastern side of the
peninsula. Since the NBM doesn't want to recognize this, have
continued to substantially undercut its hyper aggressive POPs
(categorical beneath a strengthening mid level ridge is dubious, and
that's putting it mildly). Will keep likely POPs (60) in place Thu,
with scattered (50, except 40 in Martin Co) Fri-Sun. Temps look to
be fairly close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period.
A slightly more active afternoon than the last couple days, with
showers and lightning storms impacting MCO, LEE, SFB and DAB; as
well as VRB and FPR. Some of these storms have been fairly gusty
with gusts up to 35 KT. Cell movement is towards the east around
15-20KT. SCT showers and lightning storms through late afternoon
and early evening are expected, with storms being capable of
producing brief MVFR/IFR CIGs/VIS. Left TEMPOs out currently, but
will amend as needed. Rain chances decrease after sundown, with
the highest chances being along the coastal sites. Winds will be
SW 5-10 KT this afternoon and overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Current-Tonight... Scattered showers ongoing along the coast and
near shore waters. Cell movement is towards the east around 15-20
KT. Current buoy 41009 observations show seas are 1 ft with SSE
winds around 12 KT. Winds are expected to veer towards the S/SW
overnight with wind speeds increasing to around 10-15 KT. Seas
will be 1-3 feet. Continued isolated to scattered showers and
lightning storms will be possible through early evening as cells
move offshore. Main storm impacts today will be cloud-to water
lightning strikes and gusty winds.

Mon-Thu... (Modified Previous Discussion) Light to moderate SW
flow (8-13kt) Mon- Tue, backing to south Wed and SSE Thu. Seas
2-3ft. The main concern for boaters will be increasing coverage of
showers/TS, a few of which could be strong as they move offshore
during the afternoon/early evening. The risk will decrease
slightly Wed and especially Thu as surface and steering winds
slowly back/weaken.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  92  75  90 /  20  70  40  70
MCO  76  93  76  92 /  10  60  20  70
MLB  77  93  76  92 /  20  60  40  60
VRB  76  93  75  92 /  20  60  40  60
LEE  77  92  77  90 /  20  70  40  70
SFB  76  92  76  91 /  20  70  30  70
ORL  78  93  77  91 /  10  60  30  70
FPR  75  92  75  91 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Watson/Negron/Haley

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