Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
Issued by National Weather Service Chicago IL
524 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 327 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021)

Today through Thursday night:

A surface cold frontal boundary remains draped from west to east
across southern WI early this morning. However, the shower and
thunderstorm threat has largely remained well north of the surface
boundary overnight, roughly from near the Dells eastward to
Sheboygan. This is within an area of better moisture convergence
along a veering 25 to 30 kt lower level jet. Expect these trends to
continue over the next several hours, with the shower and
thunderstorm threat not shifting south into the Madison and Milwaukee
areas until later this morning and into the afternoon as the main
mid-level impulse and surface wave of low pressure over Iowa begins
to shift into far southern WI. The surface low will shift eastward
across southern Lake Michigan into tonight, and will act to push the
cold front through far southern sections of WI this afternoon.

While severe storms are not anticipated with these thunderstorms
today, some locally heavy downpours will be possible over southern
WI into this afternoon due to the high moisture content in the
vicinity of the frontal boundary. While this does not look to result
in widespread hydro concerns for southern WI, there could be a few
localized instances of minor flooding.

With the surface cold front to shift south of the area this
afternoon, the main threat for storms should gradually wane from
north to south through the afternoon. However, expect some rain
showers to continue this evening as the lower-level baroclinic zone
shifts overhead. These showers should end across the area late
tonight.

Much cooler temperatures will follow this cold frontal passage, with
northern parts of the area, north of I-94 likely to struggle to get
near 70 today. These cool high temperatures will then be likely
areawide for Thursday as cloudy, but dry conditions prevail under a
surface ridge of high pressure. Low temperatures Thursday night
look to drop into 50s under this high.

KJB

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 513 AM  CDT Wed Jul 7 2021)

Friday through Tuesday:

It is starting to look more likely than not that Friday will start
out dry, with precipitation potential increasing later in the day
and especially into Friday night, as ascent increases ahead of a
shortwave dropping through the Dakotas. The track of this wave and
associated precipitation remains in question, with models
continuing to trend south with most of the precipitation over the
weekend. If this trend conditions, southern WI could experience
a good amount of dry time through the weekend. However, unsettled
weather, with shower and thunderstorms do not look to be too far
to our south, so we will have to continue to monitor the track and
evolution of this system as a small chances could result in
better chances of rain getting into the area. Nevertheless, expect
temperatures to remain cool in this pattern, with highs generally
in the 70s through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021)

The primary concerns for the Milwaukee area airports are:

- Northeast to north winds through the TAF period, occasionally
  gusty and variable if any convection passes over or nearby

- Probable IFR to low MVFR ceilings arriving prior to daybreak and
  then continuing much of the TAF period

- Likelihood of a couple periods of showers today with potential
  for widely scattered thunderstorms as well, with the best time
  at MKE being during the afternoon

Plenty of potential impacts for southern Wisconsin airports this
Wednesday. A southward-sagging cold front is draped across the
area early this morning, helped by thunderstorm outflows and the
marine layer last evening. This will keep airports along/north of
the I-94 corridor with northeast winds through the TAF period,
though confidence at MSN for specific wind direction is lower.
Behind this northeast wind shift is cooler air, which combined
with the antecedent moisture has made for IFR ceilings across much
of the northern half of Wisconsin. As this oozes southward
overnight, this should make it into at least eastern Wisconsin
aided by the cooler marine air. There is uncertainty into the
morning how long IFR sticks at MKE and nearby airports, but have
leaned more pessimistically given the weather setup.

While scattered showers and a few storms are likely along and
north of I-94 through the morning, the afternoon seems to be the
most favored time period for highest coverage of showers and
likely some storms along/south of I-94. Confidence on how close
these are to MKE and for what duration is low, and it's possible
these remain mainly south. Otherwise for the afternoon, any
thunderstorms may temporarily disrupt/mix out the low clouds, but
that should be only brief, with the larger scale weather setup
favoring the return of lower clouds into this evening.

MTF

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 522 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021) A small craft advisory remains
in effect through mid morning, mainly for the near shores north
of Milwaukee. While waves should ease some today in the 2 to 4
foot range, expect northerly winds to increase again tonight into
the 15 to 20 kt range. This should build waves back into the 3 to
6 foot range, thus potentially setting up the need for another
small craft advisory for the area near shore waters tonight
through Thursday.

&&

.BEACHES...Waves of 3 to 5 feet will subside to 2 to 4 feet today.
While this will lessen the swim severity during the day, expect
these waves to result in a moderate swim risk through the day.
However, these improvements look shorted lived as northerly winds
look to increase into the 15 to 20 kt range tonight into
Thursday. This is expected to build waves back into the 3 to 5
foot range again on Thursday, thus resulting in the likelihood of
another high swim risk day on Thursday for all of the southern WI
shores of Lake Michigan.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071 until 7 AM
     Wednesday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643 until 10 AM Wednesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 AM Wednesday.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
Issued by National Weather Service Chicago IL
401 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-080915-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
401 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected today with cloud to ground
lightning and heavy downpours being the main risks.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ643>646-080915-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
401 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through early Wednesday for
waves of 3 to 6 feet and a brief period of north-northeast wind
gusts up to 20 knots.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected today with cloud to ground
lightning the main risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and night.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-080915-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
401 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Northerly wind gusts to 25 knots and waves to between 4 and 7
feet will continue across the lake.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected today over the central and
southern portions of the lake with cloud to ground lightning the
main risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There are periodic chances for thunderstorms Friday into the
upcoming weekend, mainly over southern Lake Michigan.

www.weather.gov/mkx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
Issued by National Weather Service Green Bay WI
211 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

WIZ052-070800-
Sheboygan WI-
211 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 209 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms over
Plymouth and near Kohler, moving east at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds up to 30 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sheboygan, Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Kohler, Elkhart
Lake, Greenbush, Glenbeulah, Haven and Johnsonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4370 8810 4384 8807 4386 8760 4366 8758
TIME...MOT...LOC 0709Z 276DEG 17KT 4377 8800

Cooley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
Issued by National Weather Service Green Bay WI
607 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

WIZ052-071145-
Sheboygan WI-
607 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 605 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking thunderstorms with
torrential rain and wind gusts to 30 mph along a line extending from
Central Lake Winnebago to near St. Nazianz to Howards Grove to 7
miles northeast of Campbellsport. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Torrential rains and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms. Watch out for ponding of water on roads.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Howards Grove around 610 AM CDT.
  Sheboygan around 615 AM CDT.
  Plymouth around 620 AM CDT.
  Sheboygan Falls and Kohler around 635 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Johnsonville, Haven,
Waldo and Cascade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4366 8770 4364 8816 4369 8816 4382 8787
      4389 8795 4389 8769
TIME...MOT...LOC 1105Z 262DEG 36KT 4405 8835 4398 8802 4383 8784 4368
8819

RDM