Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
Issued by National Weather Service Chicago IL
1231 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 500 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021)

Tonight and Wednesday:

Damaging wind threat is the initial concern this evening, with
damaging winds already observed just to the north of the local
area.

Storms have begun to develop along a frontal boundary draped
across or just to the north of our northern tier of counties from
Marquette to Sheboygan in advance of shortwave activity across the
upper Midwest. The shortwave and cold front across western
Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota will be the impetus for more organized
thunderstorms this evening, but the incoming frontal
boundary/composite outflow off the lake and storms to the north will
be the initial focus. Oshkosh recently gusted to 59 kt. As
forcing increases an uncapped atmosphere to the southwest will
remain in place. Steep low level lapse rates and modest DCAPE will
support a damaging wind threat along and to the south of the
front. 49 kt winds were already observed in Monodic earlier today
too. And the storms to the northwest in Marshfield have reported
55 kt winds.

There is a non zero tornado threat with 100-125 J/KG of 0-3 km
CAPE in place and some enhanced vorticity on the front, especially
in any areas that are able to back winds ahead of the boundary.
The onshore moving front should ease the threat closer to the
shore with time this afternoon. The composite boundary from the
northeast may act to shift the focus away from the lake this
evening.

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect through mid evening from
Sauk to Dodge county and from Marquette to Sheboygan county.

The low level jet feed into the front will also support locally
heavy rain this evening before the low level jet veers to westerly
overnight. The front and trough axis will provide the impetus for
an area of showers and storms on Wednesday, higher coverage in
the afternoon.

KMD

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 445 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021)

Wednesday night through Monday:

Previous discussion unchanged from the midnight shift...

Showers and maybe a few thunderstorms will linger into Wednesday
night, before dissipating as drier air arrives overnight into
Thursday morning. Temperatures Wednesday night look to fall into
the 50s in most locations.

Thursday continues to look like a relatively pleasant day, though
there are some questions as to how much sun we will actually see,
with cyclonic flow aloft favoring a stratus/stratocu deck for much
of the day. Temperatures will be on the cool side, with highs
likely struggling to reach 70 in all but perhaps the far south and
southwest. Winds will be breezy from the north and northeast.

It is starting to look more likely than not that Friday will start
out dry, with precipitation potential increasing later in the day
and especially into Friday night, as ascent increases ahead of a
shortwave dropping through the Dakotas. The track of this wave and
associated precipitation remains in question, with some models
trending further south over the last 24 hours. There will
certainly be showers and thunderstorms in place across the Midwest
and lower Great Lakes during this time, but it's not entirely
clear where exactly the best rain chances will set up. This
unsettled, and uncertain pattern will persist through the weekend,
as the wave slowly moves through the Great Lakes.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021)

The primary concerns for the Milwaukee area airports are:

- Northeast to north winds through the TAF period, occasionally
  gusty and variable if any convection passes over or nearby

- Probable IFR to low MVFR ceilings arriving prior to daybreak and
  then continuing much of the TAF period

- Likelihood of a couple periods of showers today with potential
  for widely scattered thunderstorms as well, with the best time
  at MKE being during the afternoon

Plenty of potential impacts for southern Wisconsin airports this
Wednesday. A southward-sagging cold front is draped across the
area early this morning, helped by thunderstorm outflows and the
marine layer last evening. This will keep airports along/north of
the I-94 corridor with northeast winds through the TAF period,
though confidence at MSN for specific wind direction is lower.
Behind this northeast wind shift is cooler air, which combined
with the antecedent moisture has made for IFR ceilings across much
of the northern half of Wisconsin. As this oozes southward
overnight, this should make it into at least eastern Wisconsin
aided by the cooler marine air. There is uncertainty into the
morning how long IFR sticks at MKE and nearby airports, but have
leaned more pessimistically given the weather setup.

While scattered showers and a few storms are likely along and
north of I-94 through the morning, the afternoon seems to be the
most favored time period for highest coverage of showers and
likely some storms along/south of I-94. Confidence on how close
these are to MKE and for what duration is low, and it's possible
these remain mainly south. Otherwise for the afternoon, any
thunderstorms may temporarily disrupt/mix out the low clouds, but
that should be only brief, with the larger scale weather setup
favoring the return of lower clouds into this evening.

MTF

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 840 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021)

Winds beginning to turn more northwest across about the northern
third of Lake Michigan as pneumonia front begins to strengthen due
to upstream pressure rises across Lake Superior and UP. As high
pressure continues to build to the north, the pneumonia front
should accelerate southward later this morning and afternoon, with
a few gusts to 25 knots. The latest GLERL FVCOM estimate of Lake
MI surface water temps show the last several days of breezy
offshore winds have created upwelling of cooler water along the
western shore of the lake. Hence this cooler water may cause the
pneumonia front to accelerate south and west this afternoon. A
Small Craft Advisory for the nearshore waters will remain in
effect for building waves and a brief period of gusty northeast
winds up to 25 knots. Mariners should be alert for the rapid wind
shift to the N-NE this afternoon and evening.

Kavinsky

&&

.BEACHES...

A fast moving front will move south across Lake Michigan and into
southern Wisconsin this evening. This will result in a sharp
change in wind direction to the north, northeast, wind gusts
between 20 and 30 mph and rapidly increasing waves to between 3
and 6 feet. This will result in dangerous swim conditions for
beaches from Sheboygan county southward to Racine county. Will
continue to monitor forecasts for Kenosha county as they may need
to be added to this risk though it appears the higher waves will
remain north.

Gagan/KMD

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071 until 7 AM
     Wednesday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643 until 10 AM Wednesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 AM Wednesday.

&&

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
Issued by National Weather Service Chicago IL
1217 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-080530-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
1217 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Overnight

Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue mainly along and
north of Interstate 94 through daybreak. A few of the storms could
produce brief heavy rainfall and temporary gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Wednesday with cloud to
ground lightning the main risk.

There are periodic chances for thunderstorms Friday into the
upcoming weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ643>646-080530-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
1217 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Overnight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through early Wednesday for
rapidly increasing waves between 2 to 6 feet and a brief period of
north-northeast wind gusts up to 25 knots.

There is a chance for widely scattered thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Wednesday with cloud to
ground lightning the main risk.

There are periodic chances for thunderstorms Friday into the
upcoming weekend.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-080530-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
1217 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Overnight

Northerly wind gusts to 25 knots and waves to between 3 and 7
feet will continue across the lake.

Widely scattered thunderstorms across the central part of the
lake will continue.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Wednesday over the central
and southern portions of the lake with cloud to ground lightning
the main risk.

There are periodic chances for thunderstorms Friday into the
upcoming weekend.

www.weather.gov/mkx

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
941 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 ESE SHEBOYGAN         43.75N 87.69W
07/06/2021  M45 MPH          LMZ643             WI   BUOY

&&

BKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
944 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 ESE SHEBOYGAN         43.75N 87.69W
07/06/2021  M45 MPH          LMZ643             WI   BUOY

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS MARINE TSTM WIND REPORT
            FROM 1 ESE SHEBOYGAN.

&&

BKL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
Issued by National Weather Service Green Bay WI
211 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

WIZ052-070800-
Sheboygan WI-
211 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 209 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms over
Plymouth and near Kohler, moving east at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds up to 30 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sheboygan, Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Kohler, Elkhart
Lake, Greenbush, Glenbeulah, Haven and Johnsonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4370 8810 4384 8807 4386 8760 4366 8758
TIME...MOT...LOC 0709Z 276DEG 17KT 4377 8800

Cooley