Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
Issued by National Weather Service Chicago IL
707 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...(Issued 533 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021)

Monitoring an MCV previously sampled on upstream RAOBs earlier
today which is now moving into the warned storm in central
Wisconsin to the northwest of the local area. At this point the
warm advection into the front in the right rear quadrant of the
upper jet and continued more easterly storm motion vectors will
keep the initial threat confined to our northern tier of counties
for the next hour or so.

KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 500 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021)

Tonight and Wednesday:

Damaging wind threat is the initial concern this evening, with
damaging winds already observed just to the north of the local
area.

Storms have begun to develop along a frontal boundary draped
across or just to the north of our northern tier of counties from
Marquette to Sheboygan in advance of shortwave activity across the
upper Midwest. The shortwave and cold front across western
Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota will be the impetus for more organized
thunderstorms this evening, but the incoming frontal
boundary/composite outflow off the lake and storms to the north will
be the initial focus. Oshkosh recently gusted to 59 kt. As
forcing increases an uncapped atmosphere to the southwest will
remain in place. Steep low level lapse rates and modest DCAPE will
support a damaging wind threat along and to the south of the
front. 49 kt winds were already observed in Manitowoc earlier
today too. And the storms to the northwest in Marshfield have
reported 55 kt winds.

There is a non zero tornado threat with 100-125 J/KG of 0-3 km
CAPE in place and some enhanced vorticity on the front, especially
in any areas that are able to back winds ahead of the boundary.
The onshore moving front should ease the threat closer to the
shore with time this afternoon. The composite boundary from the
northeast may act to shift the focus away from the lake this
evening.

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect through mid evening from
Sauk to Dodge county and from Marquette to Sheboygan county.

The low level jet feed into the front will also support locally
heavy rain this evening before the low level jet veers to westerly
overnight. The front and trough axis will provide the impetus for
an area of showers and storms on Wednesday, higher coverage in
the afternoon.

KMD

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 445 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021)

Wednesday night through Monday:

Previous discussion unchanged from the midnight shift...

Showers and maybe a few thunderstorms will linger into Wednesday
night, before dissipating as drier air arrives overnight into
Thursday morning. Temperatures Wednesday night look to fall into
the 50s in most locations.

Thursday continues to look like a relatively pleasant day, though
there are some questions as to how much sun we will actually see,
with cyclonic flow aloft favoring a stratus/stratocu deck for much
of the day. Temperatures will be on the cool side, with highs
likely struggling to reach 70 in all but perhaps the far south and
southwest. Winds will be breezy from the north and northeast.

It is starting to look more likely than not that Friday will start
out dry, with precipitation potential increasing later in the day
and especially into Friday night, as ascent increases ahead of a
shortwave dropping through the Dakotas. The track of this wave and
associated precipitation remains in question, with some models
trending further south over the last 24 hours. There will
certainly be showers and thunderstorms in place across the Midwest
and lower Great Lakes during this time, but it's not entirely
clear where exactly the best rain chances will set up. This
unsettled, and uncertain pattern will persist through the weekend,
as the wave slowly moves through the Great Lakes.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 700 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021)
Scattered showers and storms will develop along a southward moving
outflow boundary and a cold front from the west. Expect convective
coverage to be highest along and north of a KMSN-KMKE line, thus
confidence on direct terminal impacts is low.

Addtional showers and some storms may spread in then late tonight
into the early morning hours as the trough axis arrives. Concern
overnight into Wednesday morning will then focus around the extent
of lower clouds that spread in behind the front in a moist
airmass. Confidence is high for a period of MVFR, we could see IFR
also. Confidence on how far south the low clouds spread though is
low, and will need to be monitored.

Thunder coverage may increase in the afternoon as the cold front
approaches, though at this distance specific terminals impacts
preclude anything more than a VCTS at this distance.

KMD

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 840 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021)

Winds beginning to turn more northwest across about the northern
third of Lake Michigan as pneumonia front begins to strengthen due
to upstream pressure rises across Lake Superior and UP. As high
pressure continues to build to the north, the pneumonia front
should accelerate southward later this morning and afternoon, with
a few gusts to 25 knots. The latest GLERL FVCOM estimate of Lake
MI surface water temps show the last several days of breezy
offshore winds have created upwelling of cooler water along the
western shore of the lake. Hence this cooler water may cause the
pneumonia front to accelerate south and west this afternoon. A
Small Craft Advisory for the nearshore waters will remain in
effect for building waves and a brief period of gusty northeast
winds up to 25 knots. Mariners should be alert for the rapid wind
shift to the N-NE this afternoon and evening.

Kavinsky

&&

.BEACHES...450 pm CDT...

A fast moving front will move south across Lake Michigan and into
southern Wisconsin this evening. This will result in a sharp
change in wind direction to the north, northeast, wind gusts
between 20 and 30 mph and rapidly increasing waves to between 3
and 6 feet. This will result in dangerous swim conditions for
beaches from Sheboygan county southward to Racine county. Will
continue to monitor forecasts for Kenosha county as they may need
to be added to this risk though it appears the higher waves will
remain north.

Gagan/KMD

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071 until 7 AM
     Wednesday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643 until 10 AM Wednesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 AM Wednesday.

&&

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
Issued by National Weather Service Chicago IL
431 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-072145-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
431 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon and increase in coverage this evening, mainly over
areas north of the Interstate 94 corridor. These storms will pose
a risk for localized damaging wind gusts and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Wednesday with cloud to
ground lightning the main risk.

There are periodic chances for thunderstorms Friday into the
upcoming weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ643>646-072145-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
431 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through early Wednesday for
rapidly increasing waves between 2 to 6 feet and a brief period of
north-northeast wind gusts up to 25 knots.

There is a chance for widely scattered thunderstorms this evening
with a risk for localized damaging wind gusts and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Wednesday with cloud to
ground lightning the main risk.

There are periodic chances for thunderstorms Friday into the
upcoming weekend.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-072145-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
431 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A fast moving cold front will move north to south this evening
resulting in wind gusts to 25 knots and rapidly increasing waves
to between 3 and 7 feet, mainly across central and northern
portions of the lake.

Scattered thunderstorms tonight will pose a risk for localized
damaging wind gusts and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Wednesday over the central
and southern portions of the lake with cloud to ground lightning
the main risk.

There are periodic chances for thunderstorms Friday into the
upcoming weekend.

www.weather.gov/mkx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
Issued by National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville
145 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

WIZ051-052-061945-
Sheboygan WI-Fond Du Lac WI-
145 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FOND DU LAC AND
NORTHERN SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 145 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Southern Lake Winnebago, or 10 miles northeast of North Fond Du Lac,
moving east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sheboygan, Howards Grove, Elkhart Lake, Southern Lake Winnebago,
Mount Calvary, St. Cloud, Glenbeulah, Haven, Johnsonville, Pipe,
Calvary, Marytown and Johnsburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If on or near Lake Winnebago, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4383 8841 4389 8841 4389 8840 4394 8840
      4394 8816 4389 8816 4389 8773 4381 8773
      4378 8771
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 266DEG 28KT 4390 8831

Donofrio

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
Issued by National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville
521 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

WIZ047-051-052-058>060-062300-
Dodge WI-Green Lake WI-Sheboygan WI-Washington WI-Ozaukee WI-
Fond Du Lac WI-
521 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN OZAUKEE...EASTERN GREEN
LAKE...FOND DU LAC...NORTHERN WASHINGTON...NORTHERN DODGE AND
SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 520 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a gusty outflow extending from near Brandon to near Campbellsport to
5 miles southeast of Belgium. Movement was south at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms. Some of the gusty winds will not be directly with the
thunderstorms.

Locations impacted include...
Sheboygan, Fond Du Lac, West Bend, Waupun, Port Washington, Plymouth,
Sheboygan Falls, Ripon, Mayville, North Fond Du Lac, Saukville,
Kewaskum, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Lomira, Belgium, Fredonia, Kohler,
Cedar Grove and Campbellsport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central, southeastern and east central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4374 8771 4369 8770 4357 8779 4349 8779
      4337 8788 4356 8901 4365 8901 4398 8892
      4398 8889 4390 8889 4389 8840 4394 8840
      4394 8816 4389 8816 4389 8773 4381 8773
      4377 8770
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 342DEG 30KT 4378 8884 4361 8835 4346 8772

FRIEDLEIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
Issued by National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville
607 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

WIZ046-047-051-052-070015-
Green Lake WI-Marquette WI-Sheboygan WI-Fond Du Lac WI-
607 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GREEN LAKE...FOND DU LAC...
MARQUETTE AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 607 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northeast of Westfield to near
Sheboygan Falls. Movement was east at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms. Some of the gusty winds may be away from the storms
themselves.

Locations impacted include...
Sheboygan, Fond Du Lac, Waupun, Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls, Ripon,
Berlin, North Fond Du Lac, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Kohler, Cedar
Grove, Campbellsport, Random Lake, Montello, Markesan, Westfield,
Princeton, Oakfield and Rosendale.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central, southeastern and east central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4398 8889 4390 8889 4389 8840 4394 8840
      4394 8816 4389 8816 4389 8773 4377 8770
      4354 8779 4355 8840 4363 8840 4364 8960
      4398 8960
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 292DEG 44KT 4397 8940 4367 8789

FRIEDLEIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
Issued by National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville
715 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

WIZ051-052-059-060-070130-
Sheboygan WI-Washington WI-Ozaukee WI-Fond Du Lac WI-
715 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN OZAUKEE...EASTERN FOND
DU LAC...NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM
CDT...

At 713 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near High Cliff State Park to near Southern
Lake Winnebago to near Waupun. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.
Gusty outflow was preceding some of these storms as well.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms. In addition, temporary heavy rainfall could lead to
brief localized flooding.

Locations impacted include...
Sheboygan, Fond Du Lac, Port Washington, Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls,
North Fond Du Lac, Saukville, Kewaskum, Howards Grove, Oostburg,
Belgium, Fredonia, Kohler, Cedar Grove, Campbellsport, Random Lake,
Newburg, Oakfield, Elkhart Lake and Southern Lake Winnebago.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southeastern and east central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4374 8771 4369 8770 4356 8779 4346 8781
      4337 8788 4354 8840 4363 8840 4363 8860
      4364 8862 4389 8847 4389 8840 4394 8840
      4394 8816 4389 8816 4389 8773 4381 8773
      4377 8770
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 296DEG 22KT 4411 8826 4384 8843 4367 8874

FRIEDLEIN