Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
1025 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...Unsettled weather pattern today into Thursday...

.UPDATE...
The opening round of convection moved across Southeast Florida
this morning with strong wind gusts over portions of coastal
Miami-Dade. Another round of showers and storms is offshore over
the Atlantic now. As the mid-level disturbance progresses
westward, conditions will deteriorate with increasing winds and
convective activity. Will continue with same forecast philosophy
as previous shift with lean towards higher envelope of wind
guidance. Wind observations in the Bahamas have been above 20 kts
with gusts around 30 kts from a variety of sites this morning. As
the disturbance arrives, an easterly wind surge will push from
east to west across the region. Have adjusted the wind forecast up
a knot or two to account for this trend and expanded the Small
Craft Advisory to include Biscayne Bay (particularly for concerns
around the mouth of the bay) along with the remaining Gulf and
Atlantic waters. The 12z MFL morning sounding does show a
relatively dry atmosphere for this time of year but the dry slot
from the SAL event has eroded slightly due to the mid-level low.
500 mb temperatures have cooled to -8.7 deg C which is fairly
notable around South Florida in late August.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 743 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021)

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...
An opening wave of convection has cleared MIA/FLL this morning
with another round expected later today from the Bahamas. As the
mid level disturbance pushes across the region today into
Thursday, convective activity will increase along with the
generally easterly flow. Some directional variability is possible
with convection along with sub-VFR conditions. Short-fused AMDs
likely through the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 415 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021)

DISCUSSION...

Short term (Today - Thursday):

Key Points:

1) Hazardous marine conditions are forecast during the short term
period, especially across the southern Atlantic waters and Gulf
waters off Mainland Monroe County where a Small Craft Advisory goes
into effect at 11 AM today.

2) There will be a high risk of rip currents along the east coast
beaches of South Florida from this morning through at least Thursday.

Deep-layer subtropical high pressure will remain centered over the
western Atlantic waters through the short term period, as a
mid/upper-level perturbation tracks westward along the southern
periphery of the ridge toward South Florida today. GOES-16 derived
precipitable water along with water vapor imagery loops show deep
moisture associated with this feature, which should gradually
overspread South Florida from the east beginning late this afternoon.
The increasing moisture and background ascent accompanying the
perturbation will support elevated shower and thunderstorm chances
from this afternoon through at least Thursday -- especially across
the eastern half of South Florida. A few strong showers and storms
will be possible during this time-frame, mainly over the Atlantic
waters and east coast metros. The primary concerns through the short-
term period will be hazardous marine and beach conditions due
strengthening easterly winds through Thursday (see marine and beach
sections below). Maximum temperatures will be near normal each day,
with lower 90s expected across the area.

Long term (Thursday night - Tuesday):

Models remain in fair agreement in showing a mid level perturbation
over SoFlo, which resembles a closed low in latest guidance, slowly
migrating NW and into the northern GOMEX Thursday night into Friday.
This allows for the ridge over the west Atlantic to expand back into
the area and keep SoFlo under a robust SE wind regime.

Enough deep moisture will linger in the wake of the perturbation to
combine with the easterly flow regime in order to favor showers
and storms over interior and west coast areas each afternoon
through early next week. Coverage will be in the high-end
scattered to numerous range, highest during the afternoon hours.

Expect high temperatures to remain hot, in the low 90s for much of
the area, and in the upper 80s for locations near the Atlantic
coast. Heat index values should reach the low-mid hundreds each
afternoon.

MARINE...

A weak disturbance will move across the area today and Thursday,
resulting in a strengthening pressure gradient and breezy easterly
winds across the local waters. Winds across the southern Atlantic
and Gulf waters off Mainland Monroe County will reach or marginally
exceed 20 knots with higher gusts from this morning through early
Thursday morning, and a Small Craft Advisory will go into effect for
these areas beginning at 11 AM today. Elsewhere, winds could
approach advisory levels, and small craft operators are urged to
exercise extra caution. Additional Small Craft Advisories may become
necessary for the northern Atlantic waters, Biscayne Bay, and the
Gulf waters off Collier County, though confidence in meeting or
exceeding advisory criteria is currently too low to issue these
advisories at this time. Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain
elevated as the weak disturbance moves across the area, especially
across the Atlantic waters where a few strong storms with locally
gusty winds and higher seas will be possible.

BEACHES...

There is a high rip current risk along the east coast beaches of
South Florida due to breezy/gusty easterly winds. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will gradually increase today, especially
across the east coast beaches through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  91  80  90 /  60  60  30  60
West Kendall     76  92  78  91 /  60  60  30  60
Opa-Locka        77  91  78  91 /  60  60  40  60
Homestead        77  89  78  89 /  60  60  30  50
Fort Lauderdale  79  89  80  89 /  60  60  40  60
N Ft Lauderdale  78  89  80  89 /  60  60  40  60
Pembroke Pines   77  89  78  89 /  60  60  40  60
West Palm Beach  76  90  78  90 /  60  60  50  70
Boca Raton       77  89  79  89 /  60  60  40  60
Naples           76  92  76  92 /  40  70  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

Update...RAG

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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
1006 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
260215-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1006 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...Atlantic Beaches: High Rip Current Risk...
...Atlantic/Gulf/Biscayne Bay: Hazardous Marine Conditions...
...A Few Strong Storms Possible Today...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents along the Atlantic
beaches of South Florida.

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms are forecast today, with
locally gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall possible.

Waterspouts: Waterspouts will be possible with showers and storms.

Wind: Sustained winds of 20 knots or greater with higher gusts are
forecast across portions of the Atlantic and Gulf waters today into
tonight, with a Small Craft Advisory in effect. Locally gusty winds
will be possible with the stronger showers and thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Hazardous marine and beach conditions will continue through at least
Thursday due to enhanced easterly winds. A few strong storms will be
possible across the area as a mid-level disturbance moves through the
region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

RAG

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1114 AM EDT WED AUG 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1053 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 N COUNTRY WALK        25.65N 80.43W
08/25/2021  M44 MPH          MIAMI-DADE         FL   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KTMB MIAMI TAMIAMI REPORTED A
            WIND GUST OF 44MPH AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
            MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. STATION ELEVATION IS
            5 FEET.

&&

HADI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1115 AM EDT WED AUG 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1031 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 N OCEAN RIDGE         26.55N 80.05W
08/25/2021  M43 MPH          AMZ650             FL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION XBOY BOYNTON BEACH REPORTED
            A WIND GUST OF 43MPH AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
            MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. STATION ELEVATION IS
            34 FEET.

&&

HADI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
1126 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

FLZ067-071-251615-
Inland Broward County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
1126 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Broward and
southwestern Palm Beach Counties through 1215 PM EDT...

At 1126 AM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm 7 miles east of Holey Land Wildlife Refuge, or
18 miles south of Belle Glade, moving west at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Holey Land Wildlife Refuge, Miccosukee Service Plaza, Rotenberger
Wildlife Refuge and West Broward Rec. Area On Alligator Alley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2608 8087 2646 8088 2656 8053 2622 8048
TIME...MOT...LOC 1526Z 074DEG 19KT 2642 8060

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hadi/RAG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
1154 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

FLZ066-070-251645-
Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL-
1154 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Collier
and southeastern Hendry Counties through 1245 PM EDT...

At 1154 AM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm capable of producing a funnel cloud over Big
Cypress Seminole Reservation, or 26 miles south of Montura, moving
southwest at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hendry Correctional, Big Cypress Seminole Reservation, Big Cypress
National Preserve and Sunniland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2628 8140 2640 8089 2608 8088 2588 8120
TIME...MOT...LOC 1554Z 067DEG 23KT 2629 8095

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hadi/RAG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
1231 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

FLZ066-069-070-075-251715-
Coastal Collier County FL-Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL-
Mainland Monroe FL-
1231 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Collier and
south central Hendry Counties through 115 PM EDT...

At 1230 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm 12 miles south of Hendry Correctional, or 19
miles southeast of Ave Maria, moving southwest at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Marco Island, Chokoloskee, Everglades City, Plantation Island,
Carnestown, Cape Romano, Belle Meade, Marco Island Airport, Copeland,
Big Cypress National Preserve, Royal Palm Hammock, South Blocks
Golde, Sunniland, Fakahatchee Strand State Preserve, Picayune Strand
State Forest, Port Of The Island, Intersection I-75 And Everglades
Blvd, Goodland, Miles City and Fiddlers Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2599 8180 2632 8127 2606 8093 2573 8134
      2575 8141 2579 8144 2577 8153 2581 8161
      2579 8164 2593 8181
TIME...MOT...LOC 1630Z 053DEG 26KT 2613 8121

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Hadi