Special Marine Warning 404, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
743 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

.AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...
An opening wave of convection has cleared MIA/FLL this morning
with another round expected later today from the Bahamas. As the
mid level disturbance pushes across the region today into
Thursday, convective activity will increase along with the
generally easterly flow. Some directional variability is possible
with convection along with sub-VFR conditions. Short-fused AMDs
likely through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 415 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021)

DISCUSSION...

Short term (Today - Thursday):

Key Points:

1) Hazardous marine conditions are forecast during the short term
period, especially across the southern Atlantic waters and Gulf
waters off Mainland Monroe County where a Small Craft Advisory goes
into effect at 11 AM today.

2) There will be a high risk of rip currents along the east coast
beaches of South Florida from this morning through at least Thursday.

Deep-layer subtropical high pressure will remain centered over the
western Atlantic waters through the short term period, as a
mid/upper-level perturbation tracks westward along the southern
periphery of the ridge toward South Florida today. GOES-16 derived
precipitable water along with water vapor imagery loops show deep
moisture associated with this feature, which should gradually
overspread South Florida from the east beginning late this afternoon.
The increasing moisture and background ascent accompanying the
perturbation will support elevated shower and thunderstorm chances
from this afternoon through at least Thursday -- especially across
the eastern half of South Florida. A few strong showers and storms
will be possible during this time-frame, mainly over the Atlantic
waters and east coast metros. The primary concerns through the short-
term period will be hazardous marine and beach conditions due
strengthening easterly winds through Thursday (see marine and beach
sections below). Maximum temperatures will be near normal each day,
with lower 90s expected across the area.

Long term (Thursday night - Tuesday):

Models remain in fair agreement in showing a mid level perturbation
over SoFlo, which resembles a closed low in latest guidance, slowly
migrating NW and into the northern GOMEX Thursday night into Friday.
This allows for the ridge over the west Atlantic to expand back into
the area and keep SoFlo under a robust SE wind regime.

Enough deep moisture will linger in the wake of the perturbation to
combine with the easterly flow regime in order to favor showers
and storms over interior and west coast areas each afternoon
through early next week. Coverage will be in the high-end
scattered to numerous range, highest during the afternoon hours.

Expect high temperatures to remain hot, in the low 90s for much of
the area, and in the upper 80s for locations near the Atlantic
coast. Heat index values should reach the low-mid hundreds each
afternoon.

MARINE...

A weak disturbance will move across the area today and Thursday,
resulting in a strengthening pressure gradient and breezy easterly
winds across the local waters. Winds across the southern Atlantic
and Gulf waters off Mainland Monroe County will reach or marginally
exceed 20 knots with higher gusts from this morning through early
Thursday morning, and a Small Craft Advisory will go into effect for
these areas beginning at 11 AM today. Elsewhere, winds could
approach advisory levels, and small craft operators are urged to
exercise extra caution. Additional Small Craft Advisories may become
necessary for the northern Atlantic waters, Biscayne Bay, and the
Gulf waters off Collier County, though confidence in meeting or
exceeding advisory criteria is currently too low to issue these
advisories at this time. Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain
elevated as the weak disturbance moves across the area, especially
across the Atlantic waters where a few strong storms with locally
gusty winds and higher seas will be possible.

BEACHES...

There is a high rip current risk along the east coast beaches of
South Florida due to breezy/gusty easterly winds. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will gradually increase today, especially
across the east coast beaches through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  91  80  90 /  60  60  30  60
West Kendall     76  92  78  91 /  60  60  30  60
Opa-Locka        77  91  78  91 /  60  60  40  60
Homestead        77  89  78  89 /  60  60  30  50
Fort Lauderdale  79  89  80  89 /  60  60  40  60
N Ft Lauderdale  78  89  80  89 /  60  60  40  60
Pembroke Pines   77  89  78  89 /  60  60  40  60
West Palm Beach  76  90  78  90 /  60  60  50  70
Boca Raton       77  89  79  89 /  60  60  40  60
Naples           76  92  76  92 /  40  70  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ651-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
     Thursday for GMZ657.

&&

Aviation...RAG

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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
434 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
252045-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
434 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK EAST COAST BEACHES...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS...
...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents along the east
coast beaches of South Florida.

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms are forecast today, with
locally gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall possible.

Waterspouts: Waterspouts will be possible with showers and storms.

Wind: Sustained winds of 20 knots or greater with higher gusts are
forecast across portions of the Atlantic and Gulf waters today into
tonight, where a Small Craft Advisory goes into effect this morning.
Locally gusty winds will be possible with the stronger showers and
thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Hazardous marine and beach conditions will continue through at least
Thursday due to enhanced easterly winds. A few strong storms will be
possible across the area as a mid-level disturbance moves through the
region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

Weinman

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
635 AM EDT WED AUG 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 3 SSW MIAMI BEACH       25.77N 80.15W
08/25/2021  M39 MPH          AMZ630             FL   MESONET

            A WIND GUST OF 39 MPH (34 KT) WAS MEASURED
            BY THE MESONET STATION XDGE AT BISCAYNE BAY
            HARBOR PILOTS ASSOCIATED WITH A THUNDERSTORM
            PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. STATION ELEVATION:
            40 FT.

&&

FELL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
637 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

FLZ073-074-173-174-251115-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Far South Miami-Dade County FL-
Inland Miami-Dade County FL-Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
637 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Miami-Dade County
through 715 AM EDT...

At 636 AM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms capable of producing a funnel cloud along a line
extending from Westchester to The Redland to 9 miles southeast of
Royal Palm Ranger. Movement was southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Miami, Homestead, Coral Gables, Homestead General Airport, The
Redland, Kendall, Doral, Sweetwater, Florida City, West Miami,
Westchester, Richmond West, Fountainbleau, Country Walk, Kendale
Lakes, Leisure City, Zoo Miami, The Hammocks, Coral Terrace and Royal
Palm Ranger.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2515 8066 2514 8074 2519 8074 2518 8071
      2521 8074 2582 8070 2580 8025 2558 8042
      2523 8048 2520 8054 2521 8056 2523 8052
      2524 8057 2518 8061 2518 8062 2519 8061
      2519 8065 2514 8065 2514 8067
TIME...MOT...LOC 1036Z 060DEG 12KT 2576 8032 2554 8050 2527 8055

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hadi/RAG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
642 AM EDT WED AUG 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 3 SW KEY BISCAYNE       25.66N 80.19W
08/25/2021  M41 MPH          AMZ630             FL   MESONET

            A WIND GUST OF 41 MPH (36 KT) WAS MEASURED
            BY THE MESONET STATION XKBS BISCAYNE BAY
            LIGHT 20 ASSOCIATED WITH A THUNDERSTORM
            PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. STATION ELEVATION:
            20 FT.

&&

FELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
643 AM EDT WED AUG 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 3 SSW MIAMI BEACH       25.77N 80.15W
08/25/2021  M40 MPH          AMZ630             FL   MESONET

            A WIND GUST OF 40 MPH (35 KT) WAS MEASURED
            BY THE MESONET STATION XBBH AT DODGE ISLAND
            ASSOCIATED WITH A THUNDERSTORM PUSHING
            THROUGH THE AREA. STATION ELEVATION: 41 FT.

&&

FELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
645 AM EDT WED AUG 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 NE PERRINE            25.63N 80.30W
08/25/2021  M39 MPH          MIAMI-DADE         FL   MESONET

            A WIND GUST OF 39 MPH (34 KT) WAS MEASURED
            BY THE MESONET STATION XSOM AT SOUTH MIAMI
            (WHICH IS LESS THAN A MILE FROM BISCAYNE
            BAY) ASSOCIATED WITH A THUNDERSTORM PUSHING
            THROUGH THE AREA. STATION ELEVATION: 34 FT.

&&

FELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
735 AM EDT WED AUG 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 4 WNW KEY BISCAYNE      25.71N 80.21W
08/25/2021  M47 MPH          AMZ630             FL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION XDIN DINNER KEY LIGHT 1
            REPORTED A MARINE WIND GUST OF 47MPH AS A
            THUNDERSTORM PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA.
            STATION ELEVATION IS 17 FEET.

&&

HADI