Special Marine Warning 413, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
258 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
The mid-level trough is evident on satellite water vapor imagery
over the northwestern Bahamas this afternoon. A couple of rounds of
convection have made their way across the Atlantic into South
Florida so far with strong wind gusts and frequent lightning. The
pocket of drier air at the mid-levels combined with colder
temperatures have provided a stout environment for any convection
that develops into that cold pocket aloft to produce strong wind
gusts.

Widespread gusts above 40 mph have been reported with the first
couple of rounds, mainly from outflows from decaying convection.
Some stronger winds (50+ mph) have also been reported with isolated
strong to severe cells. The surface environment has allowed for
strong outflows to propagate outwards for quite some distances.
Expect some lulls, possibly one this afternoon, with activity
picking up again at some point by the evening. Another round could
materialize overnight around 06z. The threat of strong wind gusts
and frequent lightning activity will remain with a concern into
Thursday. As the disturbance cross the region, convective coverage
will pick up with a potentially wet and stormy start to Thursday. As
the feature moves into the Gulf later in the day, rain chances will
begin to diminish from east to west.

Temperatures outside of convection will remain fairly warm with most
areas rising into the lower 90s. Some inland areas could reach into
the mid 90s but the additional cloud cover should help keep
temperatures a little cooler on Thursday compared to today. Observed
dewpoints have been running lower than most guidance, so trended
closer to the lower end of the guidance envelope through the evening
hours...

.LONG TERM (Friday-Early Next Week)...

As the upper-level low exits the region some drier air in the mid-
levels will work into the region. High pressure will remain at the
surface with increased east/southeasterly wind flow across the area.
Friday a more typical summertime pattern will set up across the area
with scattered showers and storms over the east coast and Atlantic
waters before shifting towards the interior and Gulf coast in the
afternoon and evening.

As we move into the weekend, another impulse of moisture looks to
move into the region. Therefore, with increased moisture scattered
to numerous showers and storms particularly in the afternoon and
evening. Southeasterly wind flow will favor the interior and west
coast of South Florida. A typical summertime pattern will continue
through the early part of the week with scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the area.

High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s with heat index
values into the triple digit each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...
The winds will remain breezy to windy from the easterly direction
today before decreasing to 10 to 15 knots tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms will be on an uptick later this afternoon into
tonight, as an upper level low moves across South Florida from the
Bahamas. There will more likely be AMD later this afternoon into
tonight at the TAF sites for the showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
As the mid-level disturbance passes across the region, the surface
feature associated with the disturbance will lead to a tightening
pressure gradient which will allow for an easterly wind surge to
deteriorate marine conditions. The Small Craft Advisories have been
expanded to include all the local Atlantic and Gulf coastal waters
including Biscayne Bay. Small craft on Lake Okeechobee should
exercise caution as gusty winds could create bouts of hazardous
conditions there as well, particularly overnight. This wind threat
is outside of convection which could also be stout with gusts above
40 knots possible. As the disturbance enters the Gulf by late week,
conditions should begin to improve as the wind subsides.

&&

.BEACHES...
There is a high rip current risk along the east coast beaches of
South Florida due to breezy/gusty easterly winds. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will gradually increase, especially across the
east coast beaches, through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  91  80  90 /  60  40  30  60
West Kendall     76  92  78  91 /  60  50  30  60
Opa-Locka        77  91  78  91 /  60  50  40  60
Homestead        77  89  78  89 /  60  40  30  50
Fort Lauderdale  79  89  80  89 /  60  40  40  60
N Ft Lauderdale  78  89  80  89 /  60  40  40  60
Pembroke Pines   77  89  78  89 /  70  40  40  60
West Palm Beach  76  90  78  90 /  70  50  50  70
Boca Raton       77  89  79  89 /  70  40  40  60
Naples           76  92  76  92 /  40  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine...RAG
Thursday Night through Wednesday...Kelly

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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
1006 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
260215-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1006 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...Atlantic Beaches: High Rip Current Risk...
...Atlantic/Gulf/Biscayne Bay: Hazardous Marine Conditions...
...A Few Strong Storms Possible Today...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents along the Atlantic
beaches of South Florida.

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms are forecast today, with
locally gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall possible.

Waterspouts: Waterspouts will be possible with showers and storms.

Wind: Sustained winds of 20 knots or greater with higher gusts are
forecast across portions of the Atlantic and Gulf waters today into
tonight, with a Small Craft Advisory in effect. Locally gusty winds
will be possible with the stronger showers and thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Hazardous marine and beach conditions will continue through at least
Thursday due to enhanced easterly winds. A few strong storms will be
possible across the area as a mid-level disturbance moves through the
region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

RAG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
137 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

FLZ069-070-251815-
Coastal Collier County FL-Inland Collier County FL-
137 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Collier
County through 215 PM EDT...

At 137 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm near Orangetree, or near Golden Gate Estates,
moving southwest at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Naples, Golden Gate Estates, Naples Park, Orangetree, Vineyards,
Golden Gate, East Naples, North Naples, Pelican Bay, Corkscrew Swamp
Sanctuary, Quail Creek Estate and Lely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2633 8184 2633 8182 2632 8182 2632 8166
      2642 8166 2642 8159 2625 8150 2604 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 1737Z 063DEG 24KT 2630 8163

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hadi/RAG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
139 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ENE NAPLES            26.15N 81.78W
08/25/2021  E47 MPH          COLLIER            FL   MESONET

            NPLMP NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT TOWER
            REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 47MPH AT 1:20PM AS
            AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH THE AREA.
            SITE ELEVATION IS 104 FEET.

&&

HADI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
143 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 E WILTON MANORS       26.16N 80.10W
08/25/2021  E40 MPH          BROWARD            FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            *** 1 INJ ***
            BROADCAST MEDIA, WSVN, REPORTED THAT A
            KITESURFER WAS INJURED AFTER BEING BLOWN OFF
            COURSE AT FORT LAUDERDALE BEACH. OFFICIALS
            SAID THE MAN WAS KITESURFING WHEN THE WIND
            SUDDENLY PICKED UP AND LAUNCHED HIM INTO A
            NEARBY BUILDING. THERE WERE STRONG, GUSTY
            THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS IN THE AREA AT THE
            TIME OF THE INCIDENT. FORT LAUDERDALE FIRE
            RESCUE RUSHED THE MAN TO BROWARD HEALTH
            MEDICAL CENTER WHERE THE MANS CONDITION IS
            CURRENTLY UNKNOWN.

&&

FELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
144 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S MARCO ISLAND        25.92N 81.73W
08/25/2021  M55 MPH          COLLIER            FL   MESONET

            MESONET THE CHARTER CLUB OF MARCO BEACH
            REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 55MPH AT 1:27PM AS A
            STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVED THROUGH THE AREA.
            SITE ELEVATION IS 7 FEET.

&&

HADI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
311 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

FLZ063-251945-
Glades FL-
311 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Glades
County through 345 PM EDT...

At 311 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm 7 miles east of Venus, or 9 miles northwest of
Lakeport, moving west at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Palmdale and Brighton Seminole Reservation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2706 8101 2683 8149 2703 8151 2703 8134
      2704 8133 2703 8133 2703 8127 2712 8127
      2712 8117 2721 8117 2721 8109
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 076DEG 19KT 2709 8123

LIGHTNING...EXCESSIVE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
429 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 E WILTON MANORS       26.16N 80.10W
08/25/2021  E40 MPH          BROWARD            FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            *** 1 FATAL ***
            CORRECTS PREVIOUS MARINE TSTM WIND REPORT
            FROM 2 E WILTON MANORS. BROADCAST MEDIA,
            WSVN, REPORTED THAT A KITESURFER IS
            PRONOUNCED DEAD DUE TO SIGNIFICANT INJURIES
            SUSTAINED AFTER BEING BLOWN OFF COURSE AT
            FORT LAUDERDALE BEACH. OFFICIALS SAID THE
            MAN WAS KITESURFING WHEN THE WIND SUDDENLY
            PICKED UP AND LAUNCHED HIM INTO A NEARBY
            BUILDING. THERE WERE STRONG, GUSTY
            THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS IN THE AREA AT THE
            TIME OF THE INCIDENT. FORT LAUDERDALE FIRE
            RESCUE RUSHED THE MAN TO BROWARD HEALTH
            MEDICAL CENTER, WHERE HE WAS LATER
            PRONOUNCED DEAD DUE TO INJURIES SUSTAINED
            FROM THE INCIDENT.

&&

SRB