Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
300 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

.DISCUSSION...

North Mississippi and east central Arkansas destabilized quickly
morning as temperatures briefly climbed into the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Dew points were in the low to mid 70s resulting in
MLCAPE over 2000J/kg. Steep mid-level lapse rates in excess of 7.5
C/km and deep shear will continue to result in large hail and
possibly damaging wind this afternoon. These conditions prompted a
severe thunderstorm watch that will continue through 4 pm. An
additional watch may be required, or the current one extended.

A cold front has moved through Jonesboro, AR and Kennett, MO and
will continue to move across the remainder of the Midsouth this
evening and overnight. As the front passes the threat for severe
storms should end. Temperatures are expected to fall into the 50s.
Wednesday through Friday are expected to be cool and dry. Expect
lows in the 40s to low 50s Thursday and Friday. Highs Wednesday
through Friday should be in the 70s.

Over the weekend into early next week, rain will return to the
Midsouth. Northwest flow will gradually transition to zonal flow
with a series of weak disturbances moving across the Midsouth.
Temperatures will trend slightly warmer. Expect afternoon highs
back in the upper 70s to low 80s. Severe storms do not look
likely, but with several days of rain some flooding could develop.

30

&&

.AVIATION...18z TAFs

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across north Mississippi
through this evening. Areas north should have a brief chance of
thunderstorm development but TUP has the greatest chance. Winds
will remain elevated through the TAF period. CIGs will eventually
improve by the end of the TAF period at JBR, MEM and MKL.

SWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
508 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-060015-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
508 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected this
evening, mainly north of I-40. Damaging winds and large hail will
be the main threats. Although an isolated tornado is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while
following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

KRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
503 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

ARZ018-026-027-042230-
Poinsett AR-Greene AR-Craighead AR-
503 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR...

Western Poinsett County in eastern Arkansas...
Greene County in eastern Arkansas...
Craighead County in eastern Arkansas...

At 503 PM CDT...strong thunderstorms producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located along a line extending
from near O'Kean to near Algoa. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Dangerous cloud to ground lightning is also possible with this
thunderstorm.

People in western Poinsett...Greene and Craighead Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3588 9103 3588 9087 3604 9084 3615 9075
      3615 9081 3622 9080 3620 9033 3545 9076
      3548 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 286DEG 18KT 3614 9077 3555 9118

SJM

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