Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
656 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021/

DISCUSSION...

A busy night across northern portions of the Mid-South at this
hour. A line of severe thunderstorms, currently along the
Mississippi River, has begun to quickly accelerate and weaken
across west Tennessee. Instances of severe wind gusts are still
possible, but storm structure looks less impressive now. After
this area of storms moves east of the area, we should see a break
in convection through late morning.

The atmosphere is expected to recover through late morning as
temperatures climb to near 80F and dewpoints remain in the 70s.
The next round of storms will approach the region from the
southwest, as another shortwave lifts out of Texas. Instability
will surge to 3500 MLCAPE over north Mississippi and may creep
into west Tennessee as well. Latest Hi-Res Convective Allowing
Models (CAMs) show storms firing up near the Delta around noon
and lifting ENE across north Mississippi and portions of west
Tennessee. Bulk Shear will increase to 50 kts, SRH will approach
250 m2/s2, and LCLs will be quite low. The combination of all
three will support a healthy tornado risk as well as large hail
and damaging winds.

Storm mode may start as multi-cellular with embedded supercells
and then morph into a loosely organized QLCS or bow echo. All
modes of severe weather will be in play this afternoon and SPC's
outlined Enhanced Risk covers our area quite well. The threat will
diminish by late afternoon as storms push east of the area. A
cold front will then approach the area from the northwest around
sundown. A few showers and thunderstorms will form along the
front, but are not anticipated to be severe as upper level forcing
will be rather weak.

Behind the front, the Mid-South will see several a nice string of
nearly perfect weather days. Expect plenty of sunshine and low
humidity. Highs will only top out around 70F for both Wednesday
and Thursday. Low temperatures will be quite cool with readings in
the upper 40s and lower 50s. A reinforcing front will move
through the region Thursday night. With limited moisture in place
and weak forcing, just a low chance of rain was carried across
the north. Friday will feature abundant sunshine and highs in the
lower 70s once again.

Return flow will setup across the Mid-South on Saturday, as a
large surface low organizes to the lee of the Rockies. A warm
front is expected to lift north across the region and a few
showers or thunderstorms may accompany the front in the afternoon
and evening hours. A weak shortwave is expected to move through
the region on Sunday with a chance of scattered storms expected
across much of the region for Mother's Day.

Unsettled weather will remain over the Mid-South through early
next week as a series of shortwaves rotate through the region.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs

Following passage of TSRA at TUP through midmorning, the atmosphere
will again become unstable and supportive of TSRA. Areas south and
east of MEM will be best positioned afternoon TSRA, as upstream
energy lifts out of the Arklatex, across north MS. Decided to
carry a brief TEMPO at MEM, given the majority of CAM output
places TSRA in the MEM VCNTY for a few hours. Surface cold front
will pass through MEM near sunset, with post frontal MVFR
prevailing, no threat of TSRA for the inbound arrival push.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
551 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-051300-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
551 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Another round of severe thunderstorms is expected this afternoon,
mainly south of I-40. Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes
are all possible. See website for additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed Tuesday afternoon.
Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

AC3

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