Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
605 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Scattered TS continue across much of the western half of the area.
TS currently noted at KCNM and KHOB. These storms will continue
while another round gathers to the north this evening and moves
through 02-06Z. Gusty winds and heavy rain are likely with these
storms. Uncertainty as to whether low cigs will develop in the
morning after the storms move out of the area. Amendments will
likely be needed through the evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Current radar and satellite is showing storms beginning to develop
along a remnant outflow boundary in the Permian Basin, and also in
the higher elevations west of the Pecos River. These storms will
increase in coverage with still several hours of heating left.
Instability and shear is enough that some of these storms will
become severe and potential slow movement may also add an isolated
flash flood threat as well. An upper level disturbance moving
southeast across West Texas may also cause more storms to develop
to the north later tonight, developing into an MCS that will move
southeast across the basin creating a greater wind and flood
threat.

An upper level low will develop from a departing trough and linger
for a few days. Tomorrow it will be located over MAF before
slowly moving east into the weekend. This will cause scattered
showers and storms to once again develop Thursday with rain
chances diminishing each day afterward as the lift exits the
region. A weak ridge building out of Mexico will not only bring
some drier weather but will also let temperatures increase back to
near normal earl next week. A dryline will likely form from
southeastern New Mexico to the Big Bend with temperatures being
moderated some to the east of the dryline by cooler southeast
winds.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     61  80  62  81 /  60  30  20  20
Carlsbad                       61  83  62  86 /  40  30  10  20
Dryden                         66  86  65  82 /  40  40  40  40
Fort Stockton                  62  83  62  84 /  40  50  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 59  78  60  80 /  30  40  20  20
Hobbs                          59  81  59  82 /  50  30  10  10
Marfa                          52  81  51  80 /  30  70  30  40
Midland Intl Airport           61  81  62  82 /  60  40  20  20
Odessa                         61  81  61  82 /  50  40  20  20
Wink                           62  86  62  87 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

29

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1246 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-031800-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
1246 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021 /1146 AM MDT Wed Jun 2 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe storms this afternoon and into the
overnight, a few storms may produce hail, strong winds, frequent
lightning, and locally heavy rain that may result in flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms remain in the forecast for most areas Wednesday and
Thursday, a few may be strong.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
601 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

NMZ028-033-034-TXZ045-050-060-022345-
Southern Lea County NM-Eddy County Plains NM-Central Lea County NM-
Andrews TX-Gaines TX-Winkler TX-
601 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL EDDY...SOUTHERN
LEA...WESTERN ANDREWS...SOUTHWESTERN GAINES AND NORTH CENTRAL WINKLER
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT/545 PM MDT/...

At 601 PM CDT/501 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms 13 miles northwest of Jal, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hobbs, Eunice, Jal, Monument, Humble City, Maljamar, Eunice Airport,
Jal Airport, Nadine, Halfway, Frankel City, Lea County Regional
Airport, Industrial Airpark and Oil Center.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT/800 PM
MDT/ for western Texas.

LAT...LON 3255 10263 3199 10293 3230 10379 3297 10379
      3297 10376 3300 10376 3300 10372
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 293DEG 8KT 3227 10332

89

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
501 PM MDT Wed Jun 2 2021

NMZ028-033-034-022345-
Southern Lea County NM-Eddy County Plains NM-Central Lea County NM-
501 PM MDT Wed Jun 2 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN EDDY AND
SOUTHWESTERN LEA COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

At 501 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Loving, or near Carlsbad, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Carlsbad, Loving, Avalon, Carlsbad North, Malaga, Halfway, Lake
Avalon, Otis, Cavern City Air Terminal and Living Desert State Park.

LAT...LON 3222 10439 3257 10433 3259 10360 3208 10374
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 266DEG 31KT 3235 10413

87

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
618 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 W GOLDSMITH           31.98N 102.70W
06/02/2021  M60 MPH          Ector              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SCOTT.KLEEBAUER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
534 PM MDT Wed Jun 2 2021

NMZ028-033-034-030015-
Southern Lea County NM-Eddy County Plains NM-Central Lea County NM-
534 PM MDT Wed Jun 2 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN EDDY AND WEST
CENTRAL LEA COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

At 534 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles northeast of Avalon, or 18 miles northeast of Carlsbad, moving
east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Halfway.

LAT...LON 3256 10427 3276 10413 3275 10354 3242 10363
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 277DEG 23KT 3263 10406

89

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
646 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

NMZ034-TXZ050-060-030030-
Southern Lea County NM-Andrews TX-Winkler TX-
646 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LEA...SOUTHWESTERN
ANDREWS AND NORTHWESTERN WINKLER COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT/630 PM
MDT/...

At 645 PM CDT/545 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms over Jal, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jal, Jal Airport and Bennett.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT/800 PM
MDT/ for western Texas.

LAT...LON 3217 10366 3248 10343 3229 10278 3191 10315
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 317DEG 11KT 3213 10319

89