Special Weather Statement, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
353 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.SHORT TERM...
Tonight through Thursday...
Tonight into Tuesday morning, a frontal system is expected to move
through our area, increasing rain chances. Southerly surface winds
will help to enhance the lifting and moisture advection into the
area. Upper level divergence will help to enhance buoyancy and
help with efficiency. PW values will remain above the 75th
percentile for the SPC sounding climatology for the next few days.
These storms will have the potential for locally heavy rainfall
overnight, especially in the vulnerable areas. Lightning will also
be a concern overnight as well.

Tuesday through Thursday, the frontal boundary will linger over
the area. Wednesday and Thursday, the boundary refires
convection, mainly during the afternoon hours. Southerly surface
winds will help to enhance lifting and moisture advection over the
area Tuesday through Thursday. PW values will remain over the
75th percentile for the next few days. Heavy rainfall inside of
thunderstorm development will be a concern with this frontal
system moving through, particularly Tuesday. Lightning will also
be a concern as well. MSW

.LONG TERM...
Friday through Monday...
Friday through Monday, more of a normal summertime pattern will
begin to dominate the area. Rain chances will be enhanced, mainly
during the afternoon hours. Southerly surface winds will help to
enhance moisture advection in the atmosphere. PW values will
remain high through this time period. Scattered thunderstorms and
showers will be possible daily during the peak daytime heating
hours. Lightning will be a concern inside thunderstorm development
as well. MSW

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevail at all area airports. Some vicinity showers
will be possible through the afternoon hours. Temporary periods of
showers and storms will be possible at all area airports which
will cause lower visibilities and ceilings, and TEMPO groups are
in place during the best timing for these showers and storms.
Overnight tonight through the end of the forecast period, MVFR
conditions will be possible due to low ceilings and vicinity
showers. MCB may get to IFR conditions around daybreak tomorrow
briefing due to fog and vicinity showers before returning to MVFR
conditions for the end of the forecast period. MSW

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through Friday, winds will be southerly and moderate (<15
knots). Friday afternoon through Monday, winds will be easterly to
southeasterly and moderate (<15 knots). Wave heights will
correspond to the wind speeds. MSW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  83  70  89 /  80  80  20  50
BTR  73  86  73  90 /  80  90  30  60
ASD  73  86  72  89 /  80  80  40  70
MSY  76  87  76  89 /  80  80  40  70
GPT  74  85  74  87 /  90  80  40  70
PQL  72  84  72  87 /  90  90  50  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
339 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

LAZ057>060-065>067-212115-
Lower Terrebonne-St. Charles-Upper Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-St.
John The Baptist-St. James-Upper Lafourche-
339 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ST. JOHN
THE BAPTIST...SOUTHEASTERN ST. JAMES...SOUTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES...
NORTHEASTERN TERREBONNE AND NORTHWESTERN LAFOURCHE PARISHES...

At 339 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Labadieville to near Raceland to
near Montegut. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Houma, Thibodaux, Larose, Cut Off, Lockport, Mathews, Schriever,
Paradis, Gray, Des Allemands, South Vacherie, Chauvin, North
Vacherie, Raceland, Chackbay, Bayou Gauche, Montegut, Bayou Cane,
Labadieville and Boutte.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is also occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 2958 9074 2971 9101 2996 9084 3003 9070
      2988 9041 2971 9025 2959 9024 2938 9060
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 230DEG 24KT 2977 9093 2968 9068 2952 9057

JRK

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