Special Weather Statement, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
353 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

Frontal boundary pretty much centered over the area from east to
west. South of the boundary, including New Orleans, temperatures
are in the lower 70s, with temperatures in the lower 60s north of
the boundary. At present, convection is almost entirely north of
the boundary.

Nearly zonal mid-level flow across the area, but each impulse that
moves through the flow has been triggering a round of convection.
One such impulse is over southwest Arkansas early this morning,
with another somewhat weaker one over the Gulf of Mexico south of
Lake Charles.

&&

.SHORT TERM (through Saturday)...

With the shortwaves approaching the western portions of the area
this morning, we've got at least one more wave of convection this
morning and early afternoon. Through about 12z, most remains to
the north of the front, but most guidance is consistent in
convection pushing the boundary southward off the coast by 18z or
so as the southwest Arkansas shortwave is the more dominant one.
Not out of the question that we could get into another wake low
situation depending on the strength of the cold pool. With
convection being elevated, still a hail threat as well through the
morning hours. Considering that precipitable water values are
still in excess of 1.5 inches, and that we've seen quick 1-2"
amounts with the heavier cells, will continue Flash Flood Watch
through it's expiration at 17z. Many areas are totally saturated,
and any heavy rain will be runoff.

Debated just continuing the Watch through Friday evening. All
indications are that there will be an 18-24 hour break in
organized convection, and that the main push for convection Friday
afternoon and Friday night will primarily be just north of our
area. Will hold off on an extension and give day shift a chance to
reassess this morning.

Models indicate that the boundary should push offshore on
Saturday. Question will be whether it gets far enough offshore to
allow everyone to dry out. For now, will linger some precipitation
through Saturday afternoon, but not to the extent of the last
several days. 35

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday and beyond)...

Frontal boundary should move showers off the coast Sunday
morning. High pressure will then begin to build over the area from
the west Monday and will help us start a relatively dry weather
pattern through at least mid week over land. However, with the
frontal boundary expected over or near the coastal waters early
next week, there will be potential for offshore convection each
day. TDB/35

&&

.AVIATION (valid through 12z Friday)...

Threat of TSRA at all terminals through midday today with
associated IFR or lower ceilings/visibilities. MVFR or better
conditions should move into the area during the afternoon hours.
However, as boundary returns northward toward 12z Friday, could
see ceilings deteriorate to IFR again. 35

&&

.MARINE...

Will continue Small Craft Advisory through the afternoon hours for
the open waters as well as Chandeleur and Breton Sounds, with
Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines for the lakes and
Mississippi Sound this morning. As boundary pushes offshore this
morning, expect gusty winds for several hours after passage. If an
organized MCS can develop, threat of a wake low would increase.
Boundary returns north (onshore) Friday, then back into and
through the coastal waters Saturday afternoon/night. Any periods
of benign weather over the coastal waters is likely to be fairly
short lived through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  55  68  57 /  70  40  80  90
BTR  75  60  71  61 /  70  30  80  80
ASD  75  59  72  62 /  90  30  70  70
MSY  75  65  75  67 / 100  20  60  60
GPT  74  59  71  62 / 100  20  60  70
PQL  75  58  71  59 / 100  20  60  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch until noon CDT today for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>050-056>061-063>072-075>078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ550-552-
     555-570-572-575.

     Flash Flood Watch until noon CDT today for GMZ530.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ536-538-
     557-577.

MS...Flash Flood Watch until noon CDT today for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ552-555-
     570-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ538-557-
     577.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
733 AM CDT THU APR 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 5 SSE EAST NEW ORLEANS  30.00N 89.90W
04/15/2021  M47 MPH          ST. BERNARD        LA   MESONET

            MESONET SITE AT BAYOU BIENVENUE (VERTICAL
            LIFT GATE) MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 47
            MPH OR 41KTS FROM PASSING THUNDERSTORM
            WINDS.

&&

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
740 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

LAZ066-151330-
Lower Terrebonne-
740 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN TERREBONNE
PARISH...

At 739 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles southwest of
Dulac, or 20 miles south of Houma, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dulac, Cocodrie, Tambour Bay Buoy and Lumcon Center Buoy.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in New Orleans.

LAT...LON 2921 9088 2925 9088 2927 9092 2940 9089
      2937 9039 2930 9038 2924 9040 2930 9040
      2935 9044 2927 9048 2928 9057 2925 9059
      2922 9056 2921 9053 2921 9057 2925 9061
      2921 9059 2922 9064 2916 9065
TIME...MOT...LOC 1239Z 278DEG 26KT 2930 9083

PG

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