Special Weather Statement, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
353 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

Frontal boundary pretty much centered over the area from east to
west. South of the boundary, including New Orleans, temperatures
are in the lower 70s, with temperatures in the lower 60s north of
the boundary. At present, convection is almost entirely north of
the boundary.

Nearly zonal mid-level flow across the area, but each impulse that
moves through the flow has been triggering a round of convection.
One such impulse is over southwest Arkansas early this morning,
with another somewhat weaker one over the Gulf of Mexico south of
Lake Charles.

&&

.SHORT TERM (through Saturday)...

With the shortwaves approaching the western portions of the area
this morning, we've got at least one more wave of convection this
morning and early afternoon. Through about 12z, most remains to
the north of the front, but most guidance is consistent in
convection pushing the boundary southward off the coast by 18z or
so as the southwest Arkansas shortwave is the more dominant one.
Not out of the question that we could get into another wake low
situation depending on the strength of the cold pool. With
convection being elevated, still a hail threat as well through the
morning hours. Considering that precipitable water values are
still in excess of 1.5 inches, and that we've seen quick 1-2"
amounts with the heavier cells, will continue Flash Flood Watch
through it's expiration at 17z. Many areas are totally saturated,
and any heavy rain will be runoff.

Debated just continuing the Watch through Friday evening. All
indications are that there will be an 18-24 hour break in
organized convection, and that the main push for convection Friday
afternoon and Friday night will primarily be just north of our
area. Will hold off on an extension and give day shift a chance to
reassess this morning.

Models indicate that the boundary should push offshore on
Saturday. Question will be whether it gets far enough offshore to
allow everyone to dry out. For now, will linger some precipitation
through Saturday afternoon, but not to the extent of the last
several days. 35

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday and beyond)...

Frontal boundary should move showers off the coast Sunday
morning. High pressure will then begin to build over the area from
the west Monday and will help us start a relatively dry weather
pattern through at least mid week over land. However, with the
frontal boundary expected over or near the coastal waters early
next week, there will be potential for offshore convection each
day. TDB/35

&&

.AVIATION (valid through 12z Friday)...

Threat of TSRA at all terminals through midday today with
associated IFR or lower ceilings/visibilities. MVFR or better
conditions should move into the area during the afternoon hours.
However, as boundary returns northward toward 12z Friday, could
see ceilings deteriorate to IFR again. 35

&&

.MARINE...

Will continue Small Craft Advisory through the afternoon hours for
the open waters as well as Chandeleur and Breton Sounds, with
Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines for the lakes and
Mississippi Sound this morning. As boundary pushes offshore this
morning, expect gusty winds for several hours after passage. If an
organized MCS can develop, threat of a wake low would increase.
Boundary returns north (onshore) Friday, then back into and
through the coastal waters Saturday afternoon/night. Any periods
of benign weather over the coastal waters is likely to be fairly
short lived through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  55  68  57 /  70  40  80  90
BTR  75  60  71  61 /  70  30  80  80
ASD  75  59  72  62 /  90  30  70  70
MSY  75  65  75  67 / 100  20  60  60
GPT  74  59  71  62 / 100  20  60  70
PQL  75  58  71  59 / 100  20  60  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch until noon CDT today for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>050-056>061-063>072-075>078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ550-552-
     555-570-572-575.

     Flash Flood Watch until noon CDT today for GMZ530.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ536-538-
     557-577.

MS...Flash Flood Watch until noon CDT today for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ552-555-
     570-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ538-557-
     577.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
340 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

MSZ068-151015-
Wilkinson-
340 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WILKINSON COUNTY...

At 339 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Big Bend, or 9
miles east of Bordelonville, moving east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Centreville, Woodville, Fort Adams and Crosby.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3128 9106 3100 9106 3100 9164 3104 9156
      3107 9157 3113 9163 3116 9160 3121 9159
      3124 9156 3122 9151 3124 9148 3126 9147
      3132 9108
TIME...MOT...LOC 0839Z 262DEG 29KT 3113 9174

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
359 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

MSZ068-151015-
Wilkinson-
359 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WILKINSON COUNTY...

At 358 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Fort Adams, or
16 miles northeast of Simmesport, moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Centreville, Woodville, Fort Adams and Crosby.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3128 9106 3100 9106 3100 9147 3101 9160
      3104 9156 3106 9156 3113 9163 3116 9160
      3123 9157 3124 9153 3122 9151 3124 9148
      3124 9145 3130 9108
TIME...MOT...LOC 0858Z 269DEG 27KT 3112 9157

CAB

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
458 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

LAZ036-037-071-MSZ068>070-151045-
St. Helena-Northern Tangipahoa-East Feliciana-Pike-Wilkinson-Amite-
458 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ST. HELENA...
NORTHEASTERN EAST FELICIANA AND NORTHWESTERN TANGIPAHOA PARISHES...
SOUTHWESTERN PIKE...SOUTHEASTERN WILKINSON AND SOUTHERN AMITE
COUNTIES...

At 458 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Centreville, or
12 miles north of Clinton, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kentwood, Centreville, Osyka, Norwood, Felps, Gillsberg, Easleyville
and Tangipahoa.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3095 9110 3113 9107 3109 9041 3083 9046
TIME...MOT...LOC 0958Z 278DEG 31KT 3104 9100

PG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
503 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

LAZ034>036-047-151045-
East Feliciana-Pointe Coupee-West Baton Rouge-West Feliciana-
503 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL WEST BATON
ROUGE...SOUTHERN WEST FELICIANA...CENTRAL POINTE COUPEE AND
SOUTHWESTERN EAST FELICIANA PARISHES...

At 503 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Bayou Current,
moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
New Roads, St. Francisville, Morganza and Batchelor.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3083 9180 3084 9181 3085 9127 3068 9128
      3065 9130 3063 9129 3059 9132 3067 9173
      3071 9173 3074 9176 3078 9176 3082 9181
TIME...MOT...LOC 1003Z 274DEG 30KT 3076 9182

PG