Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS New Orleans, LA

951 
WWUS54 KLIX 272137
SVSLIX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
437 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

LAC121-272146-
/O.CAN.KLIX.SV.W.0139.000000T0000Z-211027T2145Z/
West Baton Rouge LA-
437 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WEST BATON ROUGE
PARISH IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for southeastern
Louisiana.

LAT...LON 3015 9117 3038 9115 3045 9100 3061 9081
      3050 9062 3038 9065 2965 9108 2973 9111
      2975 9109 2981 9110 2986 9120 2997 9126
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 226DEG 34KT 3040 9106 3027 9094 2980 9113 

$$

LAC005-007-033-047-063-093-272145-
/O.CON.KLIX.SV.W.0139.000000T0000Z-211027T2145Z/
Ascension LA-St. James LA-Livingston LA-Iberville LA-
East Baton Rouge LA-Assumption LA-
437 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR ASCENSION...NORTHWESTERN ST. JAMES...CENTRAL LIVINGSTON...
SOUTHEASTERN IBERVILLE...SOUTH CENTRAL EAST BATON ROUGE AND
ASSUMPTION PARISHES...

At 436 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Inniswold to near Prairieville to Bayou Geneve, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Baton Rouge, Denham Springs, Gonzales, Donaldsonville, Napoleonville,
Oak Hills Place, St. Gabriel, Walker, White Castle, Livingston,
Sorrento, French Settlement, Port Vincent, Geismar, Supreme,
Shenandoah, Old Jefferson, Paincourtville, Inniswold and
Prairieville.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 162 and 188.
 Interstate 12 between mile markers 7 and 30.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for southeastern
Louisiana.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Squall lines can produce brief tornadoes and straight-line wind 
damage. Although a tornado is not immediately likely, it is best to 
move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These 
storms may cause serious injury and significant property damage.

&&

LAT...LON 3015 9117 3038 9115 3045 9100 3061 9081
      3050 9062 3038 9065 2965 9108 2973 9111
      2975 9109 2981 9110 2986 9120 2997 9126
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 226DEG 34KT 3040 9106 3027 9094 2980 9113 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

JRK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
347 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.SHORT TERM...
The much anticipated cold front has pushed into our western zones,
and a good portion of our area ahead of this line has entered the
warm sector thanks to a northward surging warm front. A strong
tornado and damaging wind threat will exist for the remainder of
the afternoon into the evening hours as CAPE well over 2000 J/kg
and 0-3km SRH over 250 m2/s2 persists during this timeframe. The
threat area will shift east as the day comes to close with a
tornado watch out to 10 pm. The risk for severe weather will
quickly come to an end from west to east as the front pushes
through. Behind the front, there will some lingering showers but
that will end quickly as well. Winds will shift to the
west/northwest and will be gusty at times. 23

.LONG TERM...
Expect much cooler, drier air behind the front as surface high
pressure builds into the region by the end of the week. Our area
will remain under northwesterly flow aloft which will help
reenforce the cool conditions at the surface, especially for
Friday and Saturday night. The flow aloft becomes more zonal by
the end of the weekend, but our area will remain dry through the
end of the forecast period. 23

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAF Discussion)
MVFR ceilings are moving in or developing across all sites this
afternoon out ahead of the approaching cold front/squall line to
our west. Strong, gusty southeast winds will be experienced as the
warm front lifts northward and the pressure gradient tightens. Could
see some showers and isolated thunderstorms develop ahead of the
line and have this possibility included in the forecast.
Otherwise, expect the bulk of the action to be with the actual
front itself, along and just ahead of the line. TEMPO'd in some
IFR conditions and very strong winds with the stronger
thunderstorms in the line. Tried to time the passage from west to
east but some amendments may need to be made later in case the
speed or orientation changes. After the frontal passage, there
will be some limited post frontal rain chances but that should
come to a quick end. Conditions will improve from west to east
late in the period but westerly winds will be strong beginning
around or just after daybreak. 23

&&

.MARINE...
Hazardous conditions will exist throughout much of the forecast
period as the cold front pushes through this evening. Strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible until the frontal passage.
Afterwards, west to northwest winds will likely increase to Gale
force winds, sustained winds in excess of 34 knots with higher
gusts, for much of Thursday and Friday. Winds will begin to relax
by the weekend as the pressure gradient subsides. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  56  69  51  62 /  80  20  10  10
BTR  56  70  52  65 /  40  10  10  10
ASD  59  74  52  67 / 100  10  10  10
MSY  62  74  57  67 / 100  10  10  10
GPT  62  74  54  66 / 100  10  10  20
PQL  62  74  53  65 / 100  10  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Gale Watch from 1 AM CDT Thursday through Friday afternoon for
     GMZ550-552-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ550-552-570-
     572.

     Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Friday afternoon for
     GMZ536-538-555-557-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ536-538-555-
     557-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Friday for GMZ530-532-534.

MS...None.
GM...Gale Watch from 1 AM CDT Thursday through Friday afternoon for
     GMZ552-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ552-570-572.

     Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Friday afternoon for
     GMZ538-555-557-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ538-555-557-
     575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Friday for GMZ532-534.

&&