Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
203 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

The main concern in the short term is thunderstorms tonight.

At upper levels, there is a weak area of troughing across the
Northern Plains. Eventually as time progresses, it will move
eastward and zonal flow will cover the northern half of the CONUS.
At the sfc, low pressure resides over eastern Colorado to eastern
SD. Connecting the lows is a cold front, which will be dragged
through Nebraska this afternoon and evening. As it does, 850 FGEN
shows that it will provide enough lift to initiate thunderstorms.
Ample moisture exists this afternoon to support this, with dwpts
well into the 60s, and above avg PWATs of 1.25"+.

As for severe concerns, steep ML lapse rates (7.5+C/km) exist,
and have worked their way east into central Nebraska today. As
such, there is ample MLCAPE, with values 2000+. Additionally,
a tongue of 0-3km SRH reaching upwards of 200m2/s2 is laid across
the area, with some spots of higher values. Lastly, ample 0-6km
bulk shear exists, with values ranging 30-50 kts. All that said,
expecting a wind threat to be the biggest hazard. However, large
hail is possible. Expecting the severe threat to wane into the
overnight.

Behind this system, drier air will work its way into western
Nebraska as sfc high pressure works into the area. This will be
evident by widespread dwpts in the 50s. Subsidence from the high
will allow for mostly clear skies and highs in the 80s across the
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

A warm front pushing up through Nebraska will stall out over the
northeast part of the state on Monday as an upper level ridge begins to
amplify over the midwest. Anticipate a good amount of instability along
and south of the front will combine with a short wave moving through
the flow to initiate thunderstorms primarily east of highway 83. Also,
ample shear will be present especially near the boundary so organized
convection may pose a severe threat.

As the upper trof continues to amplify through the middle of next week,
expect above normal temperatures with generally dry conditions across
the region.

The axis of the upper ridge will slide to our east by Wednesday as a
more progressive less amplified flow regime becomes established,
resulting in cooler temperatures and a better chance for thunderstorms
through the latter part of next week. A plume of tropical moisture will
surge up through the Rockies and push eastward into the Plains late
next week and heading into the weekend, increasing the potential for
locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

A cold front currently stretches across the area, leading to
thunderstorm activity in the Sandhills and north central
Nebraska. This front will become the focal point for greater
thunderstorm activity late this afternoon and evening impacting
southwest and north central Nebraska including KLBF, KBBW, and
KONL. Gusty erratic winds may occur around the thunderstorms as
well as lower ceilings and visibility. Otherwise, winds will shift
from the south to the north as the front passes.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sinclair
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Meltzer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-292100-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 /300 PM MDT Sat Aug 28 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening
as a cold front moves through southwest and north central
Nebraska. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats,
although locally very heavy rainfall is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect north central
Nebraska throughout the day on Monday. A few storms may be strong
with gusty winds and hail.

Additional thunderstorm chances exist Wednesday night through
Friday. Severe weather potential is unclear at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather and
rainfall reports to the NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
537 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

NEZ009-026-027-038-282315-
Loup NE-Custer NE-Rock NE-Blaine NE-
537 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Rock,
northwestern Loup, northwestern Custer and southeastern Blaine
Counties through 615 PM CDT...

At 537 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles south of Rose to 6 miles east of
Dunning. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brewster, Dunning, Linscott and Almeria Meadow State Wildlife
Management Area.

This includes Highway 2 near mile marker 238, and between mile
markers 245 and 248.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
central and north central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4209 9963 4183 10011 4171 10001 4195 9949
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 225DEG 18KT 4197 9952 4180 9998

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Sporer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
616 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

NEZ037-038-059-282345-
Custer NE-Lincoln NE-Logan NE-
616 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Lincoln, southeastern Logan and west central Custer Counties through
645 PM CDT...

At 616 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gandy, or over Stapleton, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Stapleton, Gandy, Logan, Shanklin Bluff, Tarboz Lake and Hoagland.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 92 between mile markers 223 and 243.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 106 and 120.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
central and southwestern Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4135 10049 4149 10063 4172 10033 4150 10011
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 232DEG 12KT 4147 10049

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Sporer