Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
735 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

A quiet day across central and western Nebraska with abundant sunshine
early this afternoon. Expect quiet conditions to continue through tonight
though clouds will be on the increase especially over the Pine Ridge
and an isolated shower/rumble of thunder  may sneak in from the panhandle
to the sandhills ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest.

The cold front will slowly move through Nebraska on Saturday with large
scale ascent from favorable position of the right rear quadrant of the
upper level jet and a vigorous short wave moving through the Dakotas.
However timing of best diurnal instability looks to make the front most
active late in the day/evening tomorrow. Ample bulk shear will be
present along the front and orientation of the vectors generally
parallel to the boundary expect a linear mode to convection. Overlap of
parameters evident in mesoscale ensemble guidance indicates best
potential for line segments with a damaging wind/large hail
threat along with some locally heavy rainfall will generally be
from around O'Niell back through North Platte toward Imperial and
east ward. There is good confidence in the overall scenario though
spread in guidance members lowers confidence in specifics
especially regarding westward extent of convection.

Expect improving conditions behind the front after the upper trof axis
pushes through and ends any lingering showers/thunder, followed by the
arrival of notably cooler air.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

Development of a trof over the Pacific northwest and arrival of Ida
along the central Gulf coast will amplify the ridge over the midwest.
So after a warm front pushes up through Nebraska Sunday night and
becomes stationary across the eastern part of the state, most of
central and western Nebraska will see above normal temperatures and
generally dry conditions through the first part of next week. Though it
is worth noting that convective complexes may develop upstream and
slide along the stationary front and create a very tight gradient
between wet and dry.

The axis of the upper ridge will slide to our east by Wedsnesday as a
more progressive less amplified flow regime becomes established,
resulting in cooler temperatures and a better chance for
thunderstorms through the latter part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 735 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

VFR conditions tonight into Saturday. Gusty south winds will
develop ahead of a cold front Saturday afternoon at KLBF.
Thunderstorms will be possible late afternoon and will not include
with this TAF issuance with coverage very isolated.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Roberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
332 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-282045-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
332 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 /232 PM MDT Fri Aug 27 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front late
Saturday afternoon and evening. Some storms may be strong to
severe. The greatest threat for severe storms is along and east of
a line from Imperial to North Platte to O'Neill. Damaging winds
and large hail are the main threats. Localized heavy rainfall is
also possible.

Thunderstorms are possible Sunday night through Monday night,
mainly over northeastern portions of the outlook area. At this
time, the threat for severe storms is low.

Thunderstorms are also possible Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday. At this time, the threat for severe storms is
uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected today or tonight across the
outlook area.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1156 PM MDT Fri Aug 27 2021

NEZ022-280645-
Garden NE-
1156 PM MDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Garden
County through 1245 AM MDT...

At 1156 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lisco, or 13 miles northwest of Oshkosh, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Oshkosh, Lisco, Crescent Lake National Wildlife Refuge, Richardson
Lake, Mumper, Rackett, Dogtown Flats, Deer Lake, Adams Flats and
Sugar Loaf Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4195 10234 4145 10202 4132 10261 4139 10261
      4140 10264 4174 10264 4175 10267 4177 10267
TIME...MOT...LOC 0556Z 221DEG 15KT 4153 10256

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Snively