Areal Flood Warning 53, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
800 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 AM EST SAT DEC 11 2021

Updated the forecast several times early this morning as the
strong to severe storms moves deeper into the area. The latest was
to clear some of the watch counties to the north and west as the
severe threat is confined mainly to points in the far east and
south. In addition, the latest T/Td obs and trends were included
with this update. These freshened grids have been sent to the NDFD
and web servers along with new HWO, ZFP, and SAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 450 AM EST SAT DEC 11 2021

09Z sfc analysis shows eastern Kentucky in the modifying warm
sector of a potent and deadly storm system. The cold front from
this is steadily approaching with several bands of strong to
severe storms located ahead of it. These bands are expected to
become more QLCS in nature with time early this morning
maintaining a severe threat well into the CWA. Additionally,
discrete and long lived supercells proceed the organized
convective lines with the distinct potential to produce
tornadoes. In particular a tornado warned storm over Boyle County
is a major concern for our CWA over the next hour or so should it
fail to weaken much despite the less favorable environment.
Anyways, this will be the case for the next several hours as the
front pushes into the area. Accordingly, a tornado watch is in
effect for about the northwest half of the JKL CWA basically
northwest of Wayne to Elliott County. Otherwise, temperatures
continue to climb through the area as warmer and more moist air is
squeezed into the forecast area. Regardless, the drier air in the
east will be harder to overcome and should act as a backstop to
the severe weather due to less instability - but the kinematics of
this dynamic system will have a momentum of its own. Specifically,
temperatures are in the mid to upper 60s in all but the far east
where some near 60 degree readings are found. Meanwhile, dewpoints
are in the low 60s west to the mid 50s east as winds have been
sustained at 10 to 20 mph through the night with gusts to 30+ mph
at times - keeping the boundary layer well mixed. Earlier there
were some breaks in the clouds for the area, but now the higher
clouds from the approaching storms to the west have spread
overhead.

The models are in excellent agreement aloft through the short
term portion of the forecast. They all depict the amplifying
trough plowing into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today before
bottoming out and deamplifying as it departs the area tonight.
This will send significant height falls - and attendant mid level
energy - through eastern Kentucky this morning before the pattern
flattens and heights rebound tonight into Sunday. The trough is
fed by a strong jet at 250mb passing through just to or north by
00Z Sunday along with a low level jet at 850mb moving over
Kentucky proper this morning. This is providing much of the
kinematics for the storms and helping them to overcome the more
limited instability for our area. The dynamic nature of the system
affecting us this morning lends itself toward favoring the CAMs
for PoP and convective details while the rest of the forecast the
NBM was reasonable with no large scale adjustments needed.

Sensible weather will feature a very active 12 to 18 hours ahead
of us as a strong cold front and its convective bands push into
the CWA this morning. The severe threat and highest PoPs/best QPF
moves through west to east this morning into the afternoon - well
timed out per the CAMs. The front will bring times of heavy rain
and training will be the main concern for excessive rainfall due
to the general swift movements of the individual cells. Also of
note, will be the quick temperature drop post frontal - leading
to readings falling below freezing for most by daybreak Sunday as
a switch to west and northwest winds bring in the colder air.
Dry, cold, and quiet weather follows for Sunday with highs only in
the 40s despite mostly sunny skies.

Again made only minor and mainly point based adjustments to the
NBM temperatures through the period - with just a touch of terrain
distinction included tonight. As for PoPs, mainly adjusted the
NBM values to ensure conditional values with the front's passage
and tonight and lingering it a bit longer in the eastern parts of
the CWA into the evening then dry.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM EST SAT DEC 11 2021

The first few days of the extended will be warm and mainly dry for
eastern Kentucky. A ridge of high pressure will allow for steadily
warming temperatures Monday and Tuesday. After seeing mostly clear
skies Monday and Monday night, a passing warm front will bring
increasing clouds to the area on Tuesday, and we may even see a
few passing rain showers for locations along and north of I64 on
this day. The period Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
should be dry, as high pressure becomes reestablished. It appears
that the dry weather will come to and end to end the week and
going into next weekend, as an area of low pressure moves our way
out of the Great Plains. Scattered rain showers will move back
into the area late Thursday, and should persist for a few days, as
a frontal boundary becomes nearly stalled out over the region.

Temperatures in the extended will be well above normal each day,
with the coolest days maxing out in the mid to upper 50s, and the
warmest days topping out in the 60s. Nightly lows will vary from
the upper 20s to lower 30s on the coldest nights, and only fall
into the 40s and lower 50s on the warmest nights. Winds should be
generally out of the south or southwest for most of the period,
but should shift to the north on Friday, as a front sags southward
across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EST SAT DEC 11 2021

Reductions in visibility along with erratic strong wind gusts will
continue to be the rule through the rest of the morning as
showers and storms impact the TAF sites where MVFR and IFR cigs
are found. Winds will continue to be strong through the morning
hours out of the southwest at 10 to 20 kts with gusts to 30 kts or
higher, at times. These will shift to out of the west/northwest
at around 10 to 15 kts later this afternoon once the front
passes. Improving conditions then follow into the evening with
CIGs likely becoming VFR or SKC while the winds start to settle.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
617 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

KYZ050>052-058>060-104-106>108-111215-
Rowan KY-Montgomery KY-Elliott KY-Menifee KY-Estill KY-Johnson KY-
Morgan KY-Bath KY-Powell KY-Wolfe KY-
617 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Powell, southeastern
Montgomery, Morgan, southeastern Bath, northwestern Johnson,
northwestern Estill, Menifee, southern Rowan, northwestern Wolfe and
Elliott Counties through 715 AM EST...

At 617 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Scranton, or near Frenchburg, moving northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bangor, Zilpo, Cogswell and Kellacey around 620 AM EST.
  Craney, Paragon, Lick Fork, Leisure, Pelfrey, Blaze, Zag, Yocum,
  Clearfield and Brandy around 625 AM EST.
  Blairs Mills, Hamm, Wagner, Minor, Crix, Wrigley and Christy
  around 630 AM EST.
  Fannin Valley, Farley, Lytten, Wagner Store, Elliottville, Little
  Sandy and Vale around 635 AM EST.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Sandy Hook, Stark,
Newfoundland and Bruin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 AM EST for southeastern
and east central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3818 8305 3821 8301 3817 8292 3811 8289
      3798 8302 3796 8300 3800 8296 3797 8287
      3769 8409 3778 8411 3781 8408 3781 8412
      3784 8400 3786 8402 3793 8397 3799 8400
      3825 8331 3819 8326 3827 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 1117Z 242DEG 56KT 3801 8352

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

GREIF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
804 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

KYZ104-106-107-109-110-119-111330-
Elliott KY-Martin KY-Floyd KY-Johnson KY-Magoffin KY-Morgan KY-
804 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Martin, east central
Morgan, Johnson, northwestern Floyd, central Magoffin and
southeastern Elliott Counties through 830 AM EST...

At 803 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Falcon, or near Salyersville, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Staffordsville, Fitz, Denver, Collista, East Point and Flatgap
  around 810 AM EST.
  Paintsville, Prestonsburg, Wittensville, Nippa, Tutor Key,
  Thealka, Thelma, Stambaugh, Bobbs and Galen around 815 AM EST.
  Whitehouse, River, Offutt, Chestnut, Boons Camp, Wells Chapel,
  Williamsport and Odds around 820 AM EST.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Tomahawk, Stidham,
Wells, Davisport, Pevier, Delong, Davella, Inez, Add, Milo, Job, Calf
Creek, Debord, Hode, Andy, Bradbury and Beauty.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 AM EST for southeastern
and east central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3763 8316 3766 8323 3809 8299 3809 8293
      3800 8302 3796 8300 3800 8296 3800 8293
      3789 8268 3788 8261 3795 8258 3796 8253
      3794 8249 3794 8250 3790 8247 3791 8247
      3788 8242 3781 8240 3776 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 1303Z 251DEG 50KT 3780 8298

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GREIF

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>