Areal Flood Warning 40, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
734 AM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 734 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 2021

Fortunately, storms have shown a bit more movement over the past
hour, but still a few pockets of heavy rain falling in eastern
Kentucky. Outside of freshening up the hourly temperatures and
dewpoints, no other changes needed right now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 2021

An upper level low resides across the region this morning with a
very moist airmass in place. PW values range from 1.80-2.00 across
Kentucky right now. The upper level low continues to provide some
weak ascent that has led to some heavy showers and storms
overnight. This activity continues to expand. With the upper level
low virtually on top of us, storm movement has been very slow to
almost stationary at times. This is promoting some very heavy rain
early this morning in a few places. With little change expected
today and CAMs continue to additional development through the day,
opted to hoist a flash flood watch. The ground is also quite
saturated in places from the rainfall yesterday and overnight.
Thus, some of the area is a bit more primed today. Left the
northwestern portion of the CWA out of the watch as the CAMs are
really hitting the southern areas more and they have generally
seen less rain to the north.

The upper level low will shift eastward tonight with a weak trough
axis shifting southward across the area. This may provide one last
good chance of rain through the mid to late evening hours. While a
few showers could hold on into Saturday morning, the trend is for
slightly drier weather for Saturday as heights continue to build
across the region. A few models try to bring in a few showers late
in the day, but certainly should be less coverage than most days
this week.

Highs today will be similar to yesterday generally peaking around
80 with the clouds and precipitation. Should see temperatures
reach the mid 80s on Saturday with a bit more sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 2021

The period will begin with lingering activity, but will be a bit
more quiet moving forward. An upper level low that brought unsettled
weather much of this week will have shifted east, with a surface low
in New England for the start of the period. A weak cold front will
accompany this, bringing a chance of showers/storms mainly in the
afternoon and especially along the Virginia Border. As the upper
level wave departs, another shortwave will take shape across the
eastern USA and Canada as it rounds the base of the Canadian vort
and digs southward early next week. A surface low will develop as a
result and will be positioned across the Southeast. To the west, a
large ridge will sit across the Midwest keeping the upper level
pattern very meridional.

Through the day Tuesday, guidance diverges. The GFS is more bullish,
suggesting showers working in during the afternoon and evening as a
second front works out of the Great Lakes region. On the contrary,
the ECMWF and Canadian lean on the dry side with activity staying
east of the CWA. Given the uncertainties, have leaned on the blend
here. Given the upslope flow and better low-level moisture, it is
reasonable to see slight chance showers/storms along Virginia.
Rising heights will then follow for the end of the period, as a
surface high works into the upper Mississippi Valley and then Ohio
Valley, resulting in mostly dry weather.

Temperatures will run above the norm through the first half of the
period, generally ranging from the low to mid 80s in the afternoons
and low to mid 60s overnight. With a second front progressing across
the region Tuesday afternoon, temperatures will take a dip into
Wednesday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s and overnight lows
in the low 50s. An anticyclone and southerly flow will then increase
temperatures for the end of the period, with highs near average for
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 2021

Low IFR stratus will slowly lift into an MVFR layer this morning,
before returning to VFR this afternoon. Torrential showers and
storms will be in the area today and could create some localized
lower cigs and visibilities. Low clouds and fog will again
redevelop late tonight with model guidance in pretty good
agreement. Light winds will be seen through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ058>060-068-069-
079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...BB
AVIATION...KAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
439 AM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021

KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-121145-
Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-
McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-
Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-
Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton,
Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside,
Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin,
Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland,
Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton,
Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson,
Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden,
Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville,
and South Williamson
439 AM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms with torrential rain will be seen today and tonight.
Flash flooding is possible through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms are also possible at times Saturday through Sunday,
and again on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of flooding
through this evening.

KYZ044-050>052-121145-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, and Morehead
439 AM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible through tonight. Some storms will
contain brief heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms are also possible at times Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

KAS/BB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1031 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E PEBWORTH            37.50N 83.70W
06/11/2021  M1.25 INCH       OWSLEY             KY   MESONET

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN REPORT FROM 2 E
            PEBWORTH. 24 HOUR TOTAL AS OF 8 AM.

&&

HAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1033 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N FLINTVILLE          37.50N 83.30W
06/11/2021  M1.40 INCH       BREATHITT          KY   MESONET

            24 HOUR TOTAL AS OF 8 AM.

&&

HAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1103 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WNW WILHURST          37.64N 83.43W
06/11/2021  M1.40 INCH       BREATHITT          KY   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR TOTAL AS OF 9 AM.

&&

HAS