Areal Flood Warning 33, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
314 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...

.NEAR TERM [Tonight through Thursday]...Tropical Storm Elsa over
the Suwannee Valley this afternoon will continue to move north
and into se Georgia this evening. This will continue the threat
of flooding rainfall with isolated tornadoes. Elsa will shift
north of the Altamaha River around midnight bringing a decrease to
the wind and rain for ne Fl/se Ga. Elsa will move into the Carolinas
on Thursday leaving a sw flow across our area. Scattered to numerous
showers and storms are expected by Thursday afternoon as a moist
unstable airmass remains over the area. Temperatures will reach
near 90 degrees Thursday afternoon.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday night through Saturday Night]...A moist sw
flow will prevail across the area with a ridge across south
Florida and troughing to the north. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon as PWATs will be in
the 1.75 to 2 inch range. Temperatures will be close to average
July levels.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Wednesday]...Deep layer ridge extending
from the western Atlantic across south Florida will drift north
into the area early next week. This will bring an increase in
temperatures with a decrease in rain chances. Enough moisture will
remain over the area for scattered diurnal seabreeze convection
each day. Temperatures and pops will be close to normal levels
through period.

&&

.MARINE...Tropical Storm Elsa will track northward across
northeast Florida and southeast Georgia through this evening,
moving north of the area around midnight. Strong winds and
elevated seas will continue overnight and then decrease on
Thursday.Advisory conditions will progress south to north across
across FL waters early this morning, with the best potential of
Tropical Storm force winds focused across the GA waters where a
Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. Winds and seas decrease
trailing Elsa's departure to the northeast late tonight. High
pressure will build across central Florida Thursday through the
weekend bringing prevailing SSW winds.

Rip Currents: Moderate to High risk today and moderate risk on
Thursday as winds become offshore.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Minor flooding expected on the Suwannee and St.
Marys Rivers with a rise into Moderate Flood currently forecast
for portion of the Santa Fe River.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  73  86  73  87  72 / 100  70  20  50  10
SSI  76  87  77  89  76 /  90  60  20  40  10
JAX  74  89  74  88  74 /  80  60  20  50  10
SGJ  75  88  74  88  74 /  60  60  20  40  10
GNV  74  86  73  87  72 /  60  60  30  50  10
OCF  75  86  73  88  72 /  60  60  30  50  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Thursday for Baker-Bradford-Central
     Marion-Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal
     St. Johns-Eastern Alachua-Eastern Clay-Eastern Marion-
     Eastern Putnam-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Flagler-Inland
     Nassau-Inland St. Johns-Northern Columbia-South Central
     Duval-Southern Columbia-Suwannee-Trout River-Union-Western
     Alachua-Western Clay-Western Duval-Western Marion-Western
     Putnam.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Baker-Bradford-Eastern Alachua-
     Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Nassau-Northern Columbia-Southern
     Columbia-Suwannee-Union-Western Alachua.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

     Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns-Eastern
     Clay-Eastern Putnam-Inland Flagler-Inland St. Johns-South
     Central Duval-Trout River-Western Clay-Western Duval-
     Western Putnam.

GA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Thursday for Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-
     Brantley-Clinch-Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn-Coffee-Echols-
     Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Northeastern Charlton-
     Northern Ware-Pierce-Southern Ware-Wayne-Western Charlton.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Brantley-Clinch-Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-
     Northeastern Charlton-Northern Ware-Pierce-Southern Ware-
     Wayne-Western Charlton.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

     Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for Appling-Atkinson-
     Bacon-Coffee-Jeff Davis.

AM...Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to
     Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA
     to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal waters
     from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
318 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     TROPICAL STORM   MARINELAND              29.66N 81.21W
07/07/2021                   Flagler            FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WINDS OF 40 MPH REPORTED IN MARINELAND, FL

&&

SCORDERO