Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1244 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

...SEVERE STORMS LIKELY TODAY...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR to MVFR ceilings exist across the region. Numerous SHRA/TSRA
will spread eastward across the area ahead of a cold front this
afternoon through early this evening. Along the line, wind gusts
of 50-70 KT and golfball size hail are possible. Tornadoes cannot
be ruled out. Brief visibility reductions to LIFR are likely in
periods of +RA. The threat for storms will decrease from west to
east this evening, with lingering lower ceilings into Wed morning.
Winds will shift from southerly ahead of the storms to N/NNW
behind the front. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Increasing forcing associated with an approaching mid level
shortwave has resulted in isolated strong convection this morning.
These storms have tapped into moderate to strong instability and
sufficient low level shear (as sampled by the 12Z KJAN sounding)
to result in at least one cell becoming severe just south of
Jackson and potentially resulting in a tornado. Isolated to
scattered convection will remain possible in this regime through
the balance of the morning and into the early afternoon, which is
why SPC has posted a Tornado Watch for a good chunk of the area
through the day. Especially with any storms that are able to
remain discrete, all modes of severe weather are possible through
the morning hours. Heading later into the day, as low level
forcing increases ahead of the approaching cold front, additional
convection is expected to develop west of the area and spread
eastward, with a storm mode transition to more linear. While
tornadoes will still be possible, veering low level winds are
expected to help limit this threat relative to a greater damaging
wind and large hail threat. In addition to the current convective
watch, additional watches are expected for additional portions of
the area later on this afternoon.

In addition, with PW and water vapor transport in the 99th
percentile to max range of model climatology and the potential for
convection for potential to train, flash flooding is also a
concern. Some cells in the northeastern portion of the CWA are
already doing this at the current time. While there is a localized
flooding threat across the entire area, greater potential is
expected to shift to the southeast with a portion of the afternoon
line of storms this afternoon of storms. This is where we continue
to maintain a Flash Flood Watch through this evening. /DL/

Prior discussion below:

Today and Tonight: A strong storm system shifting east through
the region from late this morning through the afternoon, will
bring severe storms to much of the forecast area today. Damaging
wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to the size of golf balls, and
tornadoes will all be possible. In addition to this, heavy
rainfall rates could result in flash flooding across portions of
the CWA. Particularly across southeast portions of the CWA, where
2-4 inches of rain in a short amount of time are possible, with
some locally higher amounts not out of the question. Much of this
will fall across areas that have recently been affected by heavy
rainfall. As a result, I'll hoist a "Flash Flood Watch" for a
portion of the area today.

A trough swinging east into and through the region today, will
likewise send a cold front east into and through the CWA through the
course of today and into tonight.  An abundance of deep moisture and
instability will reside across the area as we warm into the 80s
today. This, coupled with increased low and mid-level flow over the
region, sufficient enough deep-layer wind shear, and steep lapse
rates, will all set the stage for this severe weather and
heavy rain potential across the CWA.

As we move into tonight, convection will come to an end over the CWA
as the squall line moves east into Alabama.  Clouds will linger
across much of the forecast area during the overnight hours.
Slightly cooler drier air will also begin advection southeast into
the CWA through the night.  As day break rolls around Wednesday
morning, lows will range from the middle 50s to the middle 60s.
/19/

Wednesday through Monday: Come Wednesday morning the cold front will
be across our southeast zones along with a chance of rain. Broad
upper level troughing will remain over our region and a >1020mb high
will be centered over the central Plains. This surface high will
spread east through the day and help push the cold front south of
our CWA and bring an end to rain chances by mid afternoon. Cooler
and drier air will filter into our region in the wake of the cold
front. This will lead to high temperatures from the lower 70s north
to the upper 70s south. Our normal highs run in the lower 80s. Under
mostly clear skies and a light north wind Wednesday night,
temperatures will bottom out several degrees cooler than normal in
the low to mid 50s at most locations. Our normal lows run in the
upper 50s to near 60F. Cooler than normal temperatures and dry
weather will last through Friday night although a warming trend is
expected. Saturday our flow aloft will become zonal while our low
level flow increases out of the southwest. This will lead to
moisture increasing over our CWA from the west. There are some
differences in the models but a surface low shifting east across the
mid Mississippi river valley Saturday night and Sunday will drop a
weak cold front towards our CWA. Although the cold front looks to
stall north of our CWA Sunday, daytime heating of our moist airmass
is expected to result in isolated to scattered convection across our
area Sunday and Monday. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       86  59  75  54 / 100  38   2   0
Meridian      87  62  77  54 / 100  71   7   2
Vicksburg     86  59  75  55 / 100  26   0   0
Hattiesburg   87  64  79  57 /  99  83  27   6
Natchez       83  59  75  56 / 100  25   2   0
Greenville    85  57  73  54 /  94  18   0   0
Greenwood     86  58  74  53 / 100  33   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for MSZ048>052-
     054>058-061>066-072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

DL/19/22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1218 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>036-040-041-
051730-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-
Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Issaquena-Sharkey-
1218 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...remainder of today

Remainder of today, severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes
are possible. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to
70 mph and large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region the rest
of today.

LAZ023>026-MSZ029>033-037>039-042>045-047-048-051730-
Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-
Neshoba-Warren-Hinds-
1218 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and
northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...remainder of today through Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...remainder of today

Remainder of today through tonight, localized flash flooding is
possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river
flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Remainder of today, severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes
are possible. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to
70 mph and large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region the rest
of today.

MSZ046-053-059-060-051730-
Kemper-Claiborne-Jefferson-Adams-
1218 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central
Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...remainder of today through Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...remainder of today

Remainder of today through tonight, localized flash flooding is
possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river
flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Remainder of today, significant severe thunderstorms and
tornadoes are possible. Some thunderstorms could also produce
damaging winds up to 80 mph and large hail up to at least golf
ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region the rest
of today.

MSZ049>052-054>058-061>066-072>074-051730-
Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-
Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-
Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
1218 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and south central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...remainder of today through Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...remainder of today

Remainder of today through tonight, areas of flash flooding
likely and some roads could be flooded or closed. Some structures
may be potentially threatened by high water. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Remainder of today, significant severe thunderstorms and
tornadoes possible. Some thunderstorms could also produce
damaging winds up to 80 mph and large hail up to at least golf
ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region the rest
of today.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
153 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             ROLLING FORK            32.91N 90.87W
05/04/2021  E1.75 INCH       SHARKEY            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN ROLLING
            FORK BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
206 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0146 PM     HAIL             CARROLLTON              33.50N 89.92W
05/04/2021  E1.00 INCH       CARROLL            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
216 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0147 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE LAKE PROVIDENCE   32.81N 91.17W
05/04/2021                   EAST CARROLL       LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE WAS DOWN ON HWY 65.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
218 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0143 PM     HAIL             LENA                    32.60N 89.60W
05/04/2021  E0.70 INCH       LEAKE              MS   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN LENA.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
218 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

MSZ030-041945-
Clay MS-
218 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CLAY COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM
CDT...

At 218 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Pala Alto, or 8 miles northwest of West Point, moving northeast
at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Clay
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 PM CDT for northeastern
Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3367 8850 3366 8852 3364 8851 3364 8850
      3363 8850 3363 8888 3381 8879 3381 8872
      3368 8872 3368 8850 3367 8849
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 224DEG 35KT 3371 8872

DC