Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1001 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1001 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

Slight cooling in the boundary layer as we approached sunset has
allowed a more favorable airmass for convection this evening and the
result has been pockets of storms dropping south. Majority of the
storms have been subsevere but a persistent area of storms to the
northeast of Indy has produced wind damage and hail. This cluster
continues to drop southeast as of 02Z.

Expect convection to gradually weaken over the next 1-2 hours as
instability diminishes...with much of the forecast area likely to be
free of rain by 06Z at the latest. The rest of the night will see
skies clear as a drier airmass advects into the region from the
northwest. May see some patchy fog towards daybreak...especially in
areas where rain fell today.

Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

MARGINAL RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS LATE TODAY...UNSEASONABLE HEAT
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND

Central Indiana will continue to see hot summertime this weekend...
amid a zonal-like upper-level northwest flow as the predominant
upper ridge builds across the central/western US.  A subtle mid-
level wave sliding through the eastern extent of the ridge will work
with the hot and somewhat humid air mass providing 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE to promote scattered convective showers late today/early this
evening. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, especially along
northern/western zones where instability will be greatest. Isolated
strong to possibly marginally severe winds are possible, as current
DCAPE values range from 800 west of Indianapolis to 1400 J/kg over
far eastern counties.  Low shear and most recent guidance's slightly
downward trend in convection suggest more isolated than scattered
activity...yet made only small changes to POPs since earlier
today, given PWATs to increase to locally 2.00" amid H700 RH of
70-80% early this evening. Expect greatest coverage in the 22-00z
time frame, with at least isolated showers lingering further into
the evening while slowly sliding to the east/southeast. Localized
rainfall heavy enough to cause brief ponding in low-lying areas is
possible given storm motion of 10-15 kts at best. Very low chances
of any flash flooding with 3-hr guidance in the 3-4" range.

For locations dodging the isolated/scattered convection,
unseasonable heat will continue into this evening, with low to
mid 90s continuing across the region...with temps possibly
topping out near 95-100 along the Wabash valley. A weak boundary,
that will help to initiate convection today...will pass south
through the region tonight. The subsequent northerly winds will be
light, and skies mainly clear for the remainder of the period,
allowing for another very warm to hot day Sunday...however
humidity will be noticeably lower as dewpoints finally nudge below
60F for the first time in several days. Temperatures will drop to
near 70F tonight...rebound to upper 80s to near 90F Sunday...and
reach a much more seasonable 60-65F range by early Monday.

&&

.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

Monday through Tuesday Night...

The long term will start off dry Monday as an expansive upper ridge
envelopes areas west of the Mississippi River. Meanwhile, eastern
Canada, the eastern Great Lakes and northern Appalachia will be
under the influence of an upper trough. A pair of sharp waves will
dive southeast in the northwest upper flow in between the ridge and
trough and will move across central Indiana Monday night and Tuesday
night. However, a very dry column, northerly winds on the front side
of broad Canadian surface high pressure and low level subsidence
support keeping PoPs out, despite the GFS showing some QPF.

The northerly winds will bring in a much drier and less warm
airmass, with seasonable afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s to
middle 80s by Tuesday and cool overnight lows in the 50s Tuesday
night.

Wednesday through Saturday...

Temperatures will even be slightly cooler Wednesday as surface high
pressure builds in. By Thursday, an upper ridge will be moving
overhead and the surface high will move off to the eastern states.
This will swing the winds back around to the southwest which will
allow temperatures and humidity to be back on the rise and for the
potential for some late week and early weekend showers.

Look for slightly below normal temperatures with highs in the middle
70s to lower 80s Wednesday to heat back up to the lower 80s east to
around 90 degrees northwest by Friday.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 649 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

IMPACTS:
-Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening
-Otherwise VFR conditions expected through Sunday evening

DISCUSSION: Isolated to scattered convection continues early this
evening...largely being driven by diurnal heating and available
instability. The best instability remains over the Wabash Valley and
points west which is where the most robust activity has been largely
to this point. Will need to monitor an intensifying cluster of
storms north of KCMI in the near term as a S/SE motion would
potentially bring the storms into the northern Wabash Valley prior
to 00Z. At this point...will maintain VCTS wording at both KHUF and
KLAF with VCSH at KBMG and KIND where the airmass is more unstable.
Once heating is lost...storms should gradually diminish by the end
of the evening.

Moisture will shift southeast of the region by Sunday morning as  a
cold front ushers in a drier airmass. May still see a few afternoon
cu Sunday otherwise the trend will be towards mainly clear skies
with increasing subsidence. Northerly winds on Sunday will be around
10kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Update...Ryan
Short Term...AGM
Long Term...Koch
Aviation...Ryan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
404 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-132015-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport,
Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil,
Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin,
Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield, Bloomington,
Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee,
Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown, and North Vernon
404 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this
afternoon and evening with highest coverage across western central
Indiana. Marginally severe winds will be the main threat...with
lightning and heavy rainfall leading to very localized flooding also
possible. General storm motion will be from the north at 10-15 mph.

Heat indices will remain in the mid 90s to 103 for much of the
central Indiana through this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

AGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
948 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0929 PM     HAIL             1 NE ANDERSON           40.10N 85.68W
06/12/2021  U0.50 INCH       MADISON            IN   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: HALF-INCH (0.50 IN.).

0905 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW SUMMITVILLE       40.33N 85.68W
06/12/2021                   MADISON            IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            9 POWER POLES KNOCKED DOWN, SOME BROKEN AT
            THE GROUND ALONG CO RD 1550 NORTH JUST WEST
            OF STATE ROUTE 9. POWER LINES DOWN AS WELL.
            DAMAGE TO A WHEAT FIELD JUST SOUTH ALONG CO
            RD 1450 NORTH.

0900 PM     HAIL             SUMMITVILLE             40.33N 85.65W
06/12/2021  U0.50 INCH       MADISON            IN   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: HALF-INCH (0.50 IN.).

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1015 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

INZ047>049-056-057-130300-
Rush-Henry-Shelby-Hancock-Marion-
1015 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN SHELBY...
HANCOCK...RUSH...SOUTHWESTERN HENRY AND EASTERN MARION COUNTIES...

At 1014 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 9 miles south of New Castle to 9 miles
southeast of Greenfield to near Lawrence. Movement was south at 25
mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail are possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Eastern Indianapolis Suburbs, Shelbyville, Lawrence, Greenfield, New
Castle, Rushville, Cumberland, McCordsville, Knightstown, New
Palestine, Morristown, Carthage, Spiceland, Shirley, Kennard,
Wilkinson, Lewisville, Fairland, Milroy and Glenwood.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 93 and 126.
 Interstate 74 between mile markers 100 and 121.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3945 8543 3945 8561 3956 8595 3964 8595
      3964 8596 3993 8600 3987 8567 3994 8540
      3974 8530 3950 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 344DEG 24KT 3979 8541 3971 8562 3980 8592

Ryan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1016 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

INZ042-130245-
Randolph-
1016 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT RANDOLPH COUNTY...

At 1016 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Winchester, or
17 miles southeast of Dunkirk, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winchester, Union City, Farmland, Lynn and Saratoga.

LAT...LON 4012 8520 4030 8498 4030 8480 4001 8481
TIME...MOT...LOC 0216Z 313DEG 16KT 4019 8500

Ryan

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1021 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE NEW CASTLE         39.90N 85.34W
06/12/2021                   HENRY              IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF STATE
            ROUTE 103 AND CO RD 300 SOUTH.

1010 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHIRLEY                 39.89N 85.58W
06/12/2021                   HANCOCK            IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            UTILITY POLE AND LINES DOWN AT THE
            INTERSECTION OF STATE ROUTE 234 AND SHIRLEY
            ROAD.

0947 PM     HAIL             3 S EDGEWOOD            40.06N 85.73W
06/12/2021  U0.50 INCH       MADISON            IN   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: HALF-INCH (0.50 IN.).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1036 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1036 PM     HAIL             INDIANAPOLIS            39.78N 86.15W
06/12/2021  E0.25 INCH       MARION             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ON MASSACHUSETTS AVENUE NEAR DOWNTOWN.

&&

MDR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1040 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

INZ047-048-055-130315-
Johnson-Hancock-Marion-
1040 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN HANCOCK...NORTH
CENTRAL JOHNSON AND SOUTHEASTERN MARION COUNTIES...

At 1040 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Indianapolis,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Indianapolis, Greenwood, Lawrence, Franklin, Beech Grove, Southport,
New Whiteland, Cumberland, Whiteland, New Palestine, Warren Park,
Homecroft, Monument Circle, Indiana State Fairgrounds and Broad
Ripple.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 96 and 116.
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 74 and 92.
 Interstate 74 between mile markers 93 and 100.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3970 8591 3970 8595 3966 8595 3952 8610
      3972 8626 3988 8612 3975 8586
TIME...MOT...LOC 0240Z 307DEG 13KT 3977 8612

Ryan