Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
429 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Slow moving storms will continue into the evening hours with
precipitation gradually decreasing overnight. The heat and
humidity will continue into the weekend with daily thunderstorm
chances continuing.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Dangerous flooding situation developing in portions of eastern
Indiana into western portions of Ohio. Moisture transport
vectors continue to indicate slow moving storms over the next
several hours in this area. In addition thunderstorm activity is
starting to develop in other area locations as well. Please
remain alert and pay attention to all flood warnings this
evening.

Flash flooding is not the only threat however. Hail, generally
on the smaller size, will be possible with some of these storms.
Isolated larger hail will be possible. In addition, DCAPE values
are very high and there are steep low level lapse rates. Due to
this there is also the potential for damaging winds with the
storms.

Another additional threat outside of thunderstorm activity is
still the heat into the early evening hours. Canceled a portion
of the heat advisory, however kept the southern portion of the
heat advisory in place where storms have not yet reached. In
addition there is a special weather statement out for some of
the other area locations for heat index values in the middle to
upper 90s. As additional storms develop expect the heat threat
to then diminish across the region.

Will also have to watch out for the potential for fog during the
overnight hours once thunderstorm activity decreases. Given low
level moisture from the rainfall and due to slow moving flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Yet another day of heat, humidity, and thunderstorm activity.
Have heat index values in the 90s. There are some isolated
values near heat advisory criteria of 100, however due to some
uncertainty with convective potential just have mention in the
HWO and did not issue a heat advisory anywhere for Friday. While
there will be the potential for thunderstorm activity on Friday
and some heavy downpours, the moisture transport vectors do
indicate a little more in the way of movement. Given the
continued environment as well, cannot rule out isolated strong
to severe storms as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Guidance from models continues to suggest H5 ridge
amplification over the Ohio Valley for the weekend. This will
allow for surface high pressure to broaden its influence across
the lower Ohio Valley through the Atlantic coast. A stalled
frontal boundary will lift northward into the Great Lakes region
in response to the ridge aloft becoming more amplified. This
should limit the overall coverage of shower and storm activity
across the ILN CWA as the primary forcing mechanism remains to
our north. However, hot and humid conditions will still offer an
unstable air mass, so isolated convective activity cannot be
completely ruled out. Rather, PoPs will primarily be diurnal in
nature, with better chances as you move further north. Expect
daytime highs to continue trending around 5 degrees or so above
average, with most locations topping out in the upper 80s to
lower 90s both Saturday and Sunday.

Flow pattern aloft becomes more progressive on Monday, allowing the
H5 ridge to propagate eastward. In turn, this ridging pattern will
be replaced by a trough in the Midwest. The upper level trough and
associated surface cold front will offer better shower and storm
coverage on Monday as this unstable air mass has a sufficient
lifting mechanism to initiate storms. Ensembles from the GFS/Euro
show likely probabilities of SBCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg, so
thunderstorm activity will likely cover a good portion of the fa.
The cold front will slowly progress through our fa Monday night,
which will continue to offer chances for showers and storms during
the overnight hours. Models still have this cold front draped across
portions of southern Ohio by 12z Tuesday morning, so with the slower
progression of the front, precipitation chances remain intact on
Tuesday.

The other feature to be on the lookout for on Tuesday is the
potential impacts of a tropical system - currently listed as
Tropical Depression NINE from the NHC. This system is currently
forecast to reach Hurricane strength as it moves through the Gulf,
eventually making landfall on the northern Gulf Coast Sunday.
Ensemble tracks from the CMC/GFS are now leaning more towards a
solution where the system moves up through the Tennessee and lower
Ohio Valleys, which would provide increased moisture, clouds and
precipitation across the majority of the ILN CWA. Impacts from this
system would be felt as early as Tuesday, but it's still a little
early to diagnose the overall impacts it will have in our region as
changes in the flow pattern aloft will influence the track and
evolution of this system. Nonetheless, it will be one of the primary
features to look out for during the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thunderstorms have started to develop this afternoon and expect
additional thunderstorm development into the evening hours
before gradually decreasing tonight. Wind flow is very weak with
these so expect thunderstorms that develop to be very slow
moving, especially ones by KDAY, KCVG, and KLUK. Isolated gusty
winds will be possible with these thunderstorms along with
reduced visibility.

Tonight there will be the potential for more fog development.
Cu will develop again for the day on friday with additional
thunderstorm development potential during the afternoon hours.
Left out of the TAF sites tomorrow until after the end of the
TAF period except for at the longer KCVG TAF where there is a
VCTS mention. Flow on Friday will continue to be light. Outside
of thunderstorm activity expect winds to be light and less than
10 knots.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible through Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for OHZ078.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>096.
IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for INZ075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Novak

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
412 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

KYZ097>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051-052-054>056-063>065-072>074-
079>082-088-272015-
Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-
Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-
Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Brown-Highland-
Adams-Pike-Scioto-
412 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Kentucky, Northern
Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West
Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Locations outside of thunderstorm activity will have heat index
values into the middle to upper 90s through the early evening hours.
Thunderstorms that develop will produce heavy rainfall and lead to
the potential for flooding issues. In addition to the flooding
concerns isolated small hail and damaging wind gusts will be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heat index values in the 90s are expected for Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report significant weather conditions.

INZ075-080-KYZ089>096-OHZ078-272015-
Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Clermont-
412 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northern
Kentucky and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Slow moving storms will bring the potential for heavy downpours and flooding
concerns into the evening hours. In addition small hail and damaging
winds will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heat index values in the 90s are expected for Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report significant weather conditions.

INZ050-058-059-066-073-074-OHZ053-060>062-070-071-077-272015-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Clark-Preble-
Montgomery-Greene-Butler-Warren-Hamilton-
412 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Storms will continue across many locations into the evening hours.
Storms will be slow moving and any storm that develops will lead to
flash flood concerns. Please pay attention into the evening hours and
watch for flash flooding.

In addition to the flood threat, there will be the potential for
hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heat index values in the 90s are expected for Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report significant weather conditions.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
437 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

INZ074-075-KYZ091-262100-
Ohio IN-Dearborn IN-Boone KY-
437 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF OHIO, SOUTHERN
DEARBORN AND NORTHERN BOONE COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

At 437 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Rising Sun.
This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail, frequent
         cloud-to-ground lightning, and very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
         objects. Lightning can cause serious injury or death.
         Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Dillsboro, Moores Hill, Wilmington,
French, Hartford, Mount Sinai, Aberdeen, Pate, Belleview, Cold
Springs, Petersburg, Rabbit Hash and North Landing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

When thunder roars, go indoors! Do not stay in the open or seek
shelter under trees when lightning threatens.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3908 8481 3890 8480 3890 8504 3913 8509
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 087DEG 3KT 3899 8490

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Coniglio

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
441 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

INZ050-OHZ042-060-262115-
Wayne IN-Darke OH-Preble OH-
441 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WAYNE,
NORTHWESTERN PREBLE AND SOUTHERN DARKE COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

At 441 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Lewisburg. This
storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph, pea size hail, frequent
         cloud-to-ground lightning, and very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
         objects. Lightning can cause serious injury or death.
         Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Arcanum, Bradford, Hagerstown, New Madison, Fountain
City, Franklin, Webster, Wayne Lakes, Gettysburg, Greens Fork,
Bethel, Hollansburg, Palestine, Economy, Whitewater, Union Corners,
Middleboro, Sharpeye and Abbottsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

When thunder roars, go indoors! Do not stay in the open or seek
shelter under trees when lightning threatens.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 8481 4013 8481 4020 8444 4006 8443
      3988 8476 3987 8519 3990 8520 4001 8520
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 067DEG 3KT 3984 8464

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

Coniglio

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
454 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

OHZ044-045-052-262130-
Champaign OH-Logan OH-Union OH-
454 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CHAMPAIGN,
SOUTHERN LOGAN COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWESTERN UNION
COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

At 454 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over North
Lewisburg. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail, frequent
         cloud-to-ground lightning, and very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
         objects. Lightning can cause serious injury or death.
         Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marysville, West Liberty, North Lewisburg, De Graff, Milford Center,
Quincy, Woodstock, Cable, Rosewood, Pickrelltown, Lippincott,
Carysville, Springhills, Mingo, Pottersburg and Kennard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

When thunder roars, go indoors! Do not stay in the open or seek
shelter under trees when lightning threatens.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4026 8335 4012 8339 4021 8401 4034 8396
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 125DEG 2KT 4023 8360

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Coniglio

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
458 PM EDT THU AUG 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MORAINE                 39.70N 84.23W
08/26/2021  M2.40 INCH       MONTGOMERY         OH   PUBLIC

&&

HICKMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
459 PM EDT THU AUG 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DOWNTOWN DAYTON         39.76N 84.19W
08/26/2021                   MONTGOMERY         OH   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SEVERAL MOTORISTS STRANDED IN HIGH WATER REPORTED.

&&

JDR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
521 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

OHZ034-035-042-043-262145-
Auglaize OH-Darke OH-Shelby OH-Mercer OH-
521 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN SHELBY,
NORTHEASTERN DARKE, SOUTHWESTERN AUGLAIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MERCER
COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

At 521 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Minster, moving
northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail, frequent
         cloud-to-ground lightning, and very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
         objects. Lightning can cause serious injury or death.
         Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Coldwater, New Bremen, Minster, St. Henry, Fort Loramie, Osgood,
Chickasaw, Burkettsville, North Star, Montezuma, Yorkshire, Egypt,
Lake Loramie State Park, Maria Stein, Carthagena and Willowdell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

When thunder roars, go indoors! Do not stay in the open or seek
shelter under trees when lightning threatens.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4040 8431 4025 8445 4035 8466 4048 8466
      4053 8449
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 126DEG 10KT 4037 8446

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Coniglio