Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
429 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Slow moving storms will continue into the evening hours with
precipitation gradually decreasing overnight. The heat and
humidity will continue into the weekend with daily thunderstorm
chances continuing.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Dangerous flooding situation developing in portions of eastern
Indiana into western portions of Ohio. Moisture transport
vectors continue to indicate slow moving storms over the next
several hours in this area. In addition thunderstorm activity is
starting to develop in other area locations as well. Please
remain alert and pay attention to all flood warnings this
evening.

Flash flooding is not the only threat however. Hail, generally
on the smaller size, will be possible with some of these storms.
Isolated larger hail will be possible. In addition, DCAPE values
are very high and there are steep low level lapse rates. Due to
this there is also the potential for damaging winds with the
storms.

Another additional threat outside of thunderstorm activity is
still the heat into the early evening hours. Canceled a portion
of the heat advisory, however kept the southern portion of the
heat advisory in place where storms have not yet reached. In
addition there is a special weather statement out for some of
the other area locations for heat index values in the middle to
upper 90s. As additional storms develop expect the heat threat
to then diminish across the region.

Will also have to watch out for the potential for fog during the
overnight hours once thunderstorm activity decreases. Given low
level moisture from the rainfall and due to slow moving flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Yet another day of heat, humidity, and thunderstorm activity.
Have heat index values in the 90s. There are some isolated
values near heat advisory criteria of 100, however due to some
uncertainty with convective potential just have mention in the
HWO and did not issue a heat advisory anywhere for Friday. While
there will be the potential for thunderstorm activity on Friday
and some heavy downpours, the moisture transport vectors do
indicate a little more in the way of movement. Given the
continued environment as well, cannot rule out isolated strong
to severe storms as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Guidance from models continues to suggest H5 ridge
amplification over the Ohio Valley for the weekend. This will
allow for surface high pressure to broaden its influence across
the lower Ohio Valley through the Atlantic coast. A stalled
frontal boundary will lift northward into the Great Lakes region
in response to the ridge aloft becoming more amplified. This
should limit the overall coverage of shower and storm activity
across the ILN CWA as the primary forcing mechanism remains to
our north. However, hot and humid conditions will still offer an
unstable air mass, so isolated convective activity cannot be
completely ruled out. Rather, PoPs will primarily be diurnal in
nature, with better chances as you move further north. Expect
daytime highs to continue trending around 5 degrees or so above
average, with most locations topping out in the upper 80s to
lower 90s both Saturday and Sunday.

Flow pattern aloft becomes more progressive on Monday, allowing the
H5 ridge to propagate eastward. In turn, this ridging pattern will
be replaced by a trough in the Midwest. The upper level trough and
associated surface cold front will offer better shower and storm
coverage on Monday as this unstable air mass has a sufficient
lifting mechanism to initiate storms. Ensembles from the GFS/Euro
show likely probabilities of SBCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg, so
thunderstorm activity will likely cover a good portion of the fa.
The cold front will slowly progress through our fa Monday night,
which will continue to offer chances for showers and storms during
the overnight hours. Models still have this cold front draped across
portions of southern Ohio by 12z Tuesday morning, so with the slower
progression of the front, precipitation chances remain intact on
Tuesday.

The other feature to be on the lookout for on Tuesday is the
potential impacts of a tropical system - currently listed as
Tropical Depression NINE from the NHC. This system is currently
forecast to reach Hurricane strength as it moves through the Gulf,
eventually making landfall on the northern Gulf Coast Sunday.
Ensemble tracks from the CMC/GFS are now leaning more towards a
solution where the system moves up through the Tennessee and lower
Ohio Valleys, which would provide increased moisture, clouds and
precipitation across the majority of the ILN CWA. Impacts from this
system would be felt as early as Tuesday, but it's still a little
early to diagnose the overall impacts it will have in our region as
changes in the flow pattern aloft will influence the track and
evolution of this system. Nonetheless, it will be one of the primary
features to look out for during the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thunderstorms have started to develop this afternoon and expect
additional thunderstorm development into the evening hours
before gradually decreasing tonight. Wind flow is very weak with
these so expect thunderstorms that develop to be very slow
moving, especially ones by KDAY, KCVG, and KLUK. Isolated gusty
winds will be possible with these thunderstorms along with
reduced visibility.

Tonight there will be the potential for more fog development.
Cu will develop again for the day on friday with additional
thunderstorm development potential during the afternoon hours.
Left out of the TAF sites tomorrow until after the end of the
TAF period except for at the longer KCVG TAF where there is a
VCTS mention. Flow on Friday will continue to be light. Outside
of thunderstorm activity expect winds to be light and less than
10 knots.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible through Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for OHZ078.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>096.
IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for INZ075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Novak

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
412 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

KYZ097>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051-052-054>056-063>065-072>074-
079>082-088-272015-
Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-
Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-
Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Brown-Highland-
Adams-Pike-Scioto-
412 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Kentucky, Northern
Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West
Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Locations outside of thunderstorm activity will have heat index
values into the middle to upper 90s through the early evening hours.
Thunderstorms that develop will produce heavy rainfall and lead to
the potential for flooding issues. In addition to the flooding
concerns isolated small hail and damaging wind gusts will be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heat index values in the 90s are expected for Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report significant weather conditions.

INZ075-080-KYZ089>096-OHZ078-272015-
Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Clermont-
412 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northern
Kentucky and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Slow moving storms will bring the potential for heavy downpours and flooding
concerns into the evening hours. In addition small hail and damaging
winds will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heat index values in the 90s are expected for Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report significant weather conditions.

INZ050-058-059-066-073-074-OHZ053-060>062-070-071-077-272015-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Clark-Preble-
Montgomery-Greene-Butler-Warren-Hamilton-
412 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Storms will continue across many locations into the evening hours.
Storms will be slow moving and any storm that develops will lead to
flash flood concerns. Please pay attention into the evening hours and
watch for flash flooding.

In addition to the flood threat, there will be the potential for
hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heat index values in the 90s are expected for Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report significant weather conditions.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
400 PM EDT THU AUG 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND GST     KRID RICHMOND APT       39.76N 84.84W
08/26/2021  M47 MPH          WAYNE              IN   AWOS

&&

HICKMAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
411 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

OHZ053-054-262045-
Madison OH-Clark OH-
411 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL CLARK
AND CENTRAL MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

At 411 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Choctaw Lake,
moving southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail, frequent
         cloud-to-ground lightning, and very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
         objects. Lightning can cause serious injury or death.
         Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is possible.

Locations impacted include...
London, Jefferson, West Jefferson, Choctaw Lake, Brighton, Lafayette,
South Vienna, Newport, Interstate 70 at US Route 42, State Route 29
at State Route 38, Interstate 70 at State Route 56, Madison Lake,
Plattsburg and Plumwood.

This includes I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 64 and 82.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

When thunder roars, go indoors! Do not stay in the open or seek
shelter under trees when lightning threatens.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3994 8328 3979 8347 3984 8361 3994 8366
      4001 8353 4001 8352 4002 8352 4007 8343
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 047DEG 11KT 3996 8343

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Coniglio

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
417 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

OHZ042-060-061-262045-
Montgomery OH-Darke OH-Preble OH-
417 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PREBLE,
SOUTHWESTERN DARKE AND NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH 445
PM EDT...

At 416 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Arcanum, moving
southwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail, frequent
         cloud-to-ground lightning, and very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
         objects. Lightning can cause serious injury or death.
         Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Arcanum, Lewisburg, New Madison, Wayne Lakes, Eldorado, Verona, West
Manchester, Gordon, Ithaca, Castine and Interstate 70 at US Route
127.

This includes I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 6 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

When thunder roars, go indoors! Do not stay in the open or seek
shelter under trees when lightning threatens.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4004 8453 3988 8444 3979 8467 3986 8475
      3999 8477
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 067DEG 6KT 3994 8458

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Coniglio

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