Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
726 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe thunderstorms possible through late evening
Thursday. Cold front swings through tonight, providing cooler
and drier into Friday and Saturday. A slight chance for showers
exists Sunday, but an extended period of below average
temperatures is expected into the beginning of the next work
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for all of our
counties with the exception of our northern three (Hardin,
Auglaize and Mercer) until 10 PM EDT. A cluster of storms
tracking southeast through western Ohio and central Ohio have
already produced a number of severe reports - mainly for hail
greater than 1" in diameter. While strong, damaging winds and
large hail will continue to be the primary threat, several
supercells have formed and will keep the threat for isolated
tornadoes present with these storms. Additionally, some storms
have begun training in central Ohio, which may lead to localized
flooding issues.

More favorable 0-6km effective shear remains across our eastern
counties in central Ohio where closer to 40 kts is present.
These values drop off to near 25 kts towards our western
counties. SPC mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg where
these storms are located in west-central Ohio. A very moist and
unstable environment will remain in place through the evening,
keeping strong to severe thunderstorms present for the time
being. Our northern counties in central Ohio will have the
severe threat end by this evening as storms push further south
over the next couple of hours. After about 10pm, the severe
threat will begin to diminish, with only some scattered showers
possible overnight as the cold front swings through. There could
be some river fog development as well - especially further
south towards the Ohio River where the moisture will remain
higher the longest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Drier air filters in on Friday as northwesterly flow persists
aloft and surface winds shift out of the north. Some post-
frontal stratus clouds will linger during the early morning
hours before lifting. Still expecting scattered cu development
during the day with weak instability present, but surface high
pressure building in from the upper Midwest will offer drier
conditions across the fa. Additionally, a relief from the heat
and humidity will be felt as dewpoints drop to near or just
below 60 (compared to low to mid-70s on Thursday) with high
temperatures topping off in the middle 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be across the region on Saturday. Under a
northwest flow aloft, a disturbance will pass by to our southwest.
It looks like pcpn with this system will stay mostly out of our
area, so we are expecting dry conditions. Highs will range from 75
to 80.

A broad mid level trough will dig southeast across the Great Lakes
Saturday night into Sunday. This will push a weak cold front east
through the area, bringing a low chance for a shower or
thunderstorm. It will remain a little cool for the beginning of
August.

For the reminder of the forecast, Monday through Thursday, broad mid
level troughing will remain with weak high pressure across the Ohio
Valley at the surface. It should stay mainly dry through the period
with very low chances of pcpn perhaps by late in the week. It will
continue a little below normal early week, then closer to normal
later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Storms will continue to move through KILN/KCVG/KLUK during the
first couple of hours of the taf period before weakening. Most
sites will still have a chance to observe a stray shower through
about 06z with the approaching cold front, but the strong to
severe storm threat will rapidly diminish this evening.

MVFR CIGs are possible tonight, but there is still uncertainty
as guidance has been flip-flopping all day. With lower
confidence, just put in a SCT deck overnight and will continue
to monitor trends as the night unfolds. KLUK still has the best
chance at an MVFR vsby reduction with the development of river
valley fog. Also put in MVFR vsbys at KILN tonight based on
guidance, but confidence is lower. Overnight, winds will shift
towards the north, but remain light below 10 kts.

Low clouds will lift in the morning, with SCT cu development
expected Friday afternoon. Northerly winds will increase to
around 10 kts with VFR conditions expected.

.OUTLOOK... MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible
Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Clark

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
510 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

INZ050-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-072>074-080-300915-
Wayne-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-
Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-
Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Highland-
510 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms this morning are not expected to be severe.
However, additional thunderstorms are forecast to develop this
afternoon. A few severe storms will be possible with damaging winds
being the primary threat. Large hail or an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

INZ058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070-071-077>079-081-082-088-
300915-
Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Butler-Warren-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Adams-
Pike-Scioto-
510 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, South
Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The heat index will be between 95 and 100 this afternoon.

Thunderstorms will develop and move across the area this afternoon
into the evening. A few severe storms will be possible with damaging winds
being the primary threat. Large hail or an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>