Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
417 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe thunderstorms possible through late evening
Thursday. Cold front swings through tonight, providing cooler
and drier into Friday and Saturday. A slight chance for showers
exists Sunday, but an extended period of below average
temperatures is expected into the beginning of the next work
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for all of our
counties with the exception of our northern three (Hardin,
Auglaize and Mercer) until 10 PM EDT. A cluster of storms
tracking southeast through western Ohio and central Ohio have
already produced a number of severe reports - mainly for hail
greater than 1" in diameter. While strong, damaging winds and
large hail will continue to be the primary threat, several
supercells have formed and will keep the threat for isolated
tornadoes present with these storms. Additionally, some storms
have begun training in central Ohio, which may lead to localized
flooding issues.

More favorable 0-6km effective shear remains across our eastern
counties in central Ohio where closer to 40 kts is present.
These values drop off to near 25 kts towards our western
counties. SPC mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg where
these storms are located in west-central Ohio. A very moist and
unstable environment will remain in place through the evening,
keeping strong to severe thunderstorms present for the time
being. Our northern counties in central Ohio will have the
severe threat end by this evening as storms push further south
over the next couple of hours. After about 10pm, the severe
threat will begin to diminish, with only some scattered showers
possible overnight as the cold front swings through. There could
be some river fog development as well - especially further
south towards the Ohio River where the moisture will remain
higher the longest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Drier air filters in on Friday as northwesterly flow persists
aloft and surface winds shift out of the north. Some post-
frontal stratus clouds will linger during the early morning
hours before lifting. Still expecting scattered cu development
during the day with weak instability present, but surface high
pressure building in from the upper Midwest will offer drier
conditions across the fa. Additionally, a relief from the heat
and humidity will be felt as dewpoints drop to near or just
below 60 (compared to low to mid-70s on Thursday) with high
temperatures topping off in the middle 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be across the region on Saturday. Under a
northwest flow aloft, a disturbance will pass by to our southwest.
It looks like pcpn with this system will stay mostly out of our
area, so we are expecting dry conditions. Highs will range from 75
to 80.

A broad mid level trough will dig southeast across the Great Lakes
Saturday night into Sunday. This will push a weak cold front east
through the area, bringing a low chance for a shower or
thunderstorm. It will remain a little cool for the beginning of
August.

For the reminder of the forecast, Monday through Thursday, broad mid
level troughing will remain with weak high pressure across the Ohio
Valley at the surface. It should stay mainly dry through the period
with very low chances of pcpn perhaps by late in the week. It will
continue a little below normal early week, then closer to normal
later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered storms expected to develop this afternoon and linger
into the late evening hours. Some of these storms will be strong
to severe. Have included a tempo group at every taf site to
indicate potential timing of TSRA based on latest model
guidance. Heavy downpours will lead to reduced vsbys and some
MVFR CIG reductions - IFR reductions are less likely but could
happen briefly in stronger storms. Strong wind gusts and large hail
will be the primary threats with these storms. Included an
increase in wind gusts to near 25 kts in the tempo group, but
will monitor trends and amend if stronger gusts are expected
with thunderstorms.

Thunderstorm threat diminishes this evening from north to south,
but a few storms could linger until about midnight for our
southern taf sites. Afterwards, a number of sites will observe
MVFR CIG and vsby reductions overnight with the passing cold
front. Surface winds will shift towards the north-northwest, but
remain fairly light below 10 kts overnight.

May have held onto MVFR CIGs longer than needed, but CIG
improvement to VFR is expected around sunrise on Friday.
Prevailing VFR expected the remainder of the taf period on
Friday with light northerly winds.

.OUTLOOK... MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible
Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Clark

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
510 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

INZ050-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-072>074-080-300915-
Wayne-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-
Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-
Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Highland-
510 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms this morning are not expected to be severe.
However, additional thunderstorms are forecast to develop this
afternoon. A few severe storms will be possible with damaging winds
being the primary threat. Large hail or an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

INZ058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070-071-077>079-081-082-088-
300915-
Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Butler-Warren-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Adams-
Pike-Scioto-
510 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, South
Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The heat index will be between 95 and 100 this afternoon.

Thunderstorms will develop and move across the area this afternoon
into the evening. A few severe storms will be possible with damaging winds
being the primary threat. Large hail or an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
620 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT STERLING          39.72N 83.27W
07/29/2021                   MADISON            OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

HICKMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
643 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE NEW HOLLAND       39.56N 83.22W
07/29/2021                   PICKAWAY           OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A BARN IS DESTROYED AND A NUMBER OF TREES ARE DOWN ACROSS
            THE VILLAGE.

&&

ANOVAK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
651 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

OHZ062-063-072-292315-
Fayette OH-Clinton OH-Greene OH-
651 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE...
NORTHEASTERN CLINTON AND SOUTHERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 651 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Jamestown,
moving southeast at 30 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
One half inch diameter hail...

Locations impacted include...
Xenia, Washington Court House, Wilmington, Sabina, Jamestown,
Wilberforce, New Jasper, Bowersville, Port William, Milledgeville,
Octa, Paintersville, Melvin, Rosemoor, Bloomington, Lumberton,
Middleton Corner, New Antioch, Jasper Mills and Lees Creek.

This includes I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 49 and 67.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3938 8359 3936 8374 3966 8402 3973 8389
      3958 8340
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 314DEG 27KT 3962 8378

Hatzos

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
653 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N JAMESTOWN           39.69N 83.74W
07/29/2021                   GREENE             OH   PUBLIC

            TREES SNAPPED AND A TREE UPROOTED.

&&

ANOVAK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
655 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

OHZ082-088-292330-
Pike OH-Scioto OH-
655 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PIKE AND NORTHERN SCIOTO
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 654 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Lucasville, and another strong thunderstorm near Pike Lake, moving
southeast at 35 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
One half inch diameter hail...

Locations impacted include...
Waverly, Piketon, South Webster, Clarktown, Pike Lake, Kincaid
Springs, Lucasville, Cynthiana, Rosemount, Beaver, Rarden, Sinking
Spring, Otway, Wakefield, Pike County Airport, Minford, Omega,
Givens, Mcdermott and Mount Joy.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3876 8266 3881 8309 3885 8327 3902 8327
      3905 8332 3906 8339 3920 8335 3917 8279
      3895 8281 3894 8275 3885 8276 3885 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 316DEG 30KT 3891 8293

Hatzos

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
702 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

OHZ072-292330-
Clinton OH-
702 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CLINTON COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM
EDT...

At 702 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 7 miles east of
Waynesville, moving southeast at 35 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
Penny size hail...

Locations impacted include...
Wilmington, New Vienna, Clarksville, Martinsville, Midland, Melvin,
New Antioch, Oakland, Cuba, Lees Creek, Reesville, Morrisville,
Ogden, Kingman, Burtonville, Interstate 71 at US Route 68, Cowan Lake
State Park and Lumberton.

This includes I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 43 and 53.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3938 8399 3957 8398 3956 8386 3946 8358
      3942 8359 3929 8374 3928 8376 3928 8390
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 306DEG 29KT 3949 8396

Hatzos