Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1011 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Severe weather through part of the night with flooding concerns
also likely into the overnight hours. Additional severe threat
on Saturday with a boundary in the area. Continued thunderstorms
will be possible through the weekend and into early next week
until the frontal passage.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Thunderstorms continue across portions of the area. Damaging
winds and flash flooding will be the main threats. Isolated
tornadoes and hail will be possible as well. Expect additional
thunderstorms to move into the region overnight. Flash flooding
will be a significant concern. Only took away the northern tier
of the flood watch for now given uncertainty with how far north
convection will reach overnight. Flooding is even more of a
concern with timing at night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing during the morning
hours with a lull around mid day. Additional thunderstorm
development going into the afternoon and evening hours. Severe
weather with the potential for damaging winds will be possible
in the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The extended period begins Sunday with shortwave ridging over
the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes ahead of a progressive
deepening trough moving southeast into the northern plains.
Meanwhile, tropical remnant slowly lift northeast through the
southeastern United States. This pattern will lead to plenty of
heat and humidity Sunday through Monday. As far as
precipitation, moderate instability Sunday with minimal forcing
provides a chance of mainly diurnal storms. However, by Monday,
the approaching trough and associated cold front brings better
chances of convection.

There is some signal for development of a southwesterly low-level
jet Sunday night into Monday morning, so PoPs start to increase at
this time. Heading into the afternoon, timing of the front will be
critical in deciphering peak instability... along with associated
severe threat. Based on current guidance, front appears to push
through the region during the afternoon, so best instability
develops south and east of Interstate 71 corridor. In addition, the
ECMWF and the tail end of the NAM bring a secondary wave along the
front late Monday evening into the overnight, with significant
uptick in PoPs across the southeast part of the forecast area at
that time. Will continue to monitor this period for severe and
flooding threat as details become more clear.

Conditions dry out behind the front Tuesday afternoon as high
pressure quickly builds into the Ohio Valley. High temperatures will
likely be head to around 70 degrees with lower humidity values.

The surface high slides east through mid to late week as
temperatures warm again in southerly flow. Mid-level ridging
provides a break in the precipitation during this time, though can't
rule out an isolated afternoon storm by Friday as low level moisture
increases.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Thunderstorms moving through several of the TAF sites through
the night. There will gusty winds with these thunderstorms.
There could be a lull in the thunderstorms on Saturday before
additional thunderstorms develop. Some MVFR cigs will be
possible Saturday morning.

.OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Saturday through Monday

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for OHZ042-051>055-
     060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KYZ091>093.
     Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for KYZ089-090-
     094>100.
IN...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075.
     Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for INZ080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...Hogue
AVIATION...Novak

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
426 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

OHZ026-192030-
Hardin-
426 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms will be likely this evening into tonight.
Damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes, and flash flooding will be
possible.

Heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s through early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A few strong to severe storms will be possible again Saturday
afternoon and evening. Damaging wind would be the primary threat on
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report significant weather conditions.

OHZ034-035-043>046-056-192030-
Mercer-Auglaize-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Licking-
426 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Ohio and West Central
Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Severe thunderstorms will be likely this evening into tonight.
Damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes, and flash flooding will be
possible.

Heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s through early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

A few strong to severe storms will be possible again Saturday
afternoon and evening. Damaging wind would be the primary threat on
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report significant weather conditions.

INZ050-058-059-OHZ042-051>055-060>065-074-192030-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Darke-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-
Hocking-
426 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Severe thunderstorms will be likely this evening into tonight.
Damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes, and flash flooding will be
possible.

Heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s through early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

A few strong to severe storms will be possible again Saturday
afternoon and evening. Damaging wind would be the primary threat on
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report significant weather conditions.

INZ066-073>075-KYZ091>093-OHZ070>073-077>082-088-192030-
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Butler-Warren-
Clinton-Ross-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
426 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northern
Kentucky, South Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Severe thunderstorms will be likely this evening into tonight.
Damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes, and flash flooding will be
possible.

Heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s through early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

A few strong to severe storms will be possible again Saturday
afternoon and evening. Damaging wind would be the primary threat on
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report significant weather conditions.

INZ080-KYZ089-090-094>100-192030-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-
Mason-Lewis-
426 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky and Northern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Severe thunderstorms will be likely this evening into tonight.
Damaging winds and flash flooding will be possible. There will also
be the potential for isolated large hail and the potential for a
tornado.

Heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s through early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

A few strong to severe storms will be possible again Saturday
afternoon and evening. Damaging wind would be the primary threat on
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report significant weather conditions.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1240 AM EDT SAT JUN 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WSW FAYETTEVILLE      39.15N 84.02W
06/18/2021                   CLERMONT           OH   911 CALL CENTER

            PORCHED REPORTED COLLASPED FROM THUNDERSTORM WINDS. TIME
            ESTIMATE FROM RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1241 AM EDT SAT JUN 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BATAVIA                 39.08N 84.18W
06/18/2021                   CLERMONT           OH   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN IN BATAVIA. THIS WAS
            REPRESENTATIVE ACROSS THE COUNTY. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1247 AM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

KYZ094-190515-
Owen KY-
1247 AM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT OWEN COUNTY UNTIL 115 AM EDT...

At 1246 AM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 8 miles west of
Owenton, moving southeast at 35 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Owenton, Monterey, Gratz, Elk Lake, Beechwood, Harmony, Long Ridge,
Wheatley, Natlee, New Liberty, Squiresville, New Columbus and Elmer
Davis Lake.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If this storm becomes
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3838 8490 3842 8488 3843 8493 3846 8492
      3846 8494 3843 8496 3847 8495 3849 8499
      3852 8498 3851 8503 3856 8501 3856 8506
      3859 8507 3865 8497 3854 8467 3849 8463
      3847 8458 3838 8469 3834 8479
TIME...MOT...LOC 0446Z 300DEG 29KT 3850 8499

Franks