Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
308 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Forecast highlights:

Severe weather and flooding potential through tonight.

Multiple rounds of showers/storms possible the next several days,
which could pose additional flooding concerns, especially over
southeast Kansas.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing across east-central
Kansas, in the vicinity of an east-west oriented boundary, being
aided by shortwave energy and associated large-scale ascent
overspreading from the west. The atmosphere is characterized by
strong instability owing to good surface heating and rich boundary
layer moisture. Deep layer shear is modest, with well above normal
precipitable waters. The mid-levels are a bit more moist and a tad
cooler today compared to yesterday, which at least partially
explains why activity initiated earlier than yesterday.

Per observational and model trends, storms should continue to
develop/congeal along this boundary through the afternoon-evening,
in response to the large scale ascent approaching from the west and
a strengthening low-level jet. Primary threats will be large hail
and damaging winds, although decent low-level CAPE values may
support an isolated tornado threat before 9 PM. Mid-level lapse
rates aren't quite as steep as yesterday, so hail sizes should be
limited some, probably no larger than ping-pongs or golfballs.
Thinking the greatest severe threat will be generally along/south of
the Highway 50 corridor, although there is a conditional severe risk
further north into central/north-central Kansas this evening-
overnight as High Plains activity encounters greater instability as
it rolls east.

Furthermore, impressive precipitable water values and orientation
of low-level boundary nearly parallel to mid/upper flow will also
support training storms, very heavy rainfall rates, and potential
flooding/flash flooding. Thinking the greatest threat for this will
be from roughly Highway 50 on south/southeast, where a flood watch
has been hoisted through about sunrise Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

There is increasing concern that especially southeast Kansas
could see multiple rounds of showers/storms the next several days.
The culprits will be a persistent upper trough just
west/northwest of the region and associated favorable upper jet
dynamics, amidst above normal precipitation waters and some
semblance of a weak surface boundary draped across the region.
Consequently, later shifts may need to consider extending the
flood watch further into the future. If this forecast verifies,
several inches of rain could fall across mainly southeast Kansas
through mid-late next week, resulting in significant rises on area
rivers and streams across especially southeast Kansas (as is
supported by raw river model output). Stay tuned for later
forecast.

Temperature-wise, precipitation/clouds and the lingering central
CONUS upper trough should support somewhat cooler than normal
temperatures through the weekend and through much of next week, with
daytime highs generally in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Low confidence forecasts continue. Scattered elevated storms
continue to develop near KS/OK border south of KICT. That is the
focus of weak warm air advection aloft and is expected to
translate into southeast KS. Meanwhile surface outflow boundary
or front is between KMPR and KHUT but little if any additional
southward progress is expected. This will likely be the focus for
more robust convection later this afternoon as surface
temperatures increase. Better synoptic scale lift will occur this
evening as upper trough and coupled upper jet translates across
the area. Attempted limit thunderstorms to more likely time frames,
but will need to refine and add details as confidence increases
in the short term. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  83  66  84 /  90  60  40  20
Hutchinson      68  84  64  85 /  80  40  20  10
Newton          69  83  65  84 /  80  50  40  20
ElDorado        70  81  66  82 /  90  70  50  30
Winfield-KWLD   69  83  67  83 /  80  80  70  40
Russell         64  81  61  84 /  60  20  10  10
Great Bend      65  81  61  83 /  70  30  10  10
Salina          67  84  63  86 /  80  40  20  10
McPherson       67  84  63  85 /  80  40  20  10
Coffeyville     72  84  69  82 /  80  90  80  70
Chanute         71  83  69  82 /  90  80  80  60
Iola            71  83  69  82 /  90  80  80  60
Parsons-KPPF    72  83  69  82 /  80  90  80  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ052-053-068>072-082-
083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...PJH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
338 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-262045-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
338 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the region
through tonight. The strongest activity will be capable of half-
dollar size hail, 60 to 70 mph winds, and possibly an isolated
tornado. Additionally, locally very heavy rainfall is likely, which
could support flooding and flash flooding concerns. Thinking the
highest threat for severe weather and flooding will be generally
along and south of the Highway 50 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to remain in the
forecast this weekend through mid to late next week, with the
highest threat generally across southeast Kansas. While some strong
storms are possible, there is increasing concern for multiple
rounds of heavy rainfall, which may lead to flooding concerns.
Significant rises on area rivers and streams are possible. Stay
tuned for later forecasts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of severe weather, flooding, and rainfall are always
greatly appreciated.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
426 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ050-067-252230-
Reno KS-Rice KS-
426 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northwestern Reno County in south central Kansas...
  Southern Rice County in central Kansas...

* Until 530 PM CDT.

* At 424 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Sylvia, or near Zenith...moving
  northeast at 35 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hutchinson, South Hutchinson, Sterling, Nickerson, Sylvia, Alden,
  Plevna, Abbyville and Willowbrook.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
central and south central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3826 9847 3827 9793 3825 9792 3804 9792
      3786 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 238DEG 29KT 3797 9840

KETCHAM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
444 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ052-252230-
Marion KS-
444 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southwestern Marion County in central Kansas...

* Until 530 PM CDT.

* At 442 PM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was tracking
  a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall over Goessel, or
  7 miles northeast of Hesston...moving east at 20 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hillsboro, Goessel and Marion Lake.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
south central and central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3840 9714 3817 9713 3817 9715 3818 9716
      3817 9737 3834 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 249DEG 19KT 3824 9737

HOWERTON

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