Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
325 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

Currently have an upper circulation lifting across north central
OK with a closed upper low spinning over southern CA. At the
surface, there appears to be a weak stationary front/outflow
boundary stretching from south of Kansas City to near Salina.

Storms continue to linger near this weak boundary late this
afternoon as the entire area remains unstable with around
1500-2000J/KG of CAPE. Will also see showers/storms become more
widespread as the upper impulse lifts into south central/southeast
KS early this evening. After around 02z, feel that southeast KS
will be the only area still seeing showers/storms as the activity
over central KS is more diurnally driven. Main threat with
showers/storms will remain heavy rainfall and flooding due to
slow movement of storms. With minimal shear not too impressed
with large hail potential but can't rule out a wet microburst.

Additional storms are once again expected to develop out over the
High Plains late this afternoon/early evening and will track east
overnight. Confidence is low on how far east this activity will
make it due to weaker steering winds along with less 850-700mb
theta-e advection than we've had the last few nights. So for most
of the night, feel we should see a lull in activity with the
exception of southeast KS as the upper impulse continues to slowly
lift into MO.

Not overly impressed with precip chances during the day Mon as
much of it will depend on how far east High Plains activity makes
it and if there are any MCV's associated with this activity.
Meanwhile, the more pronounced upper impulse will be continuing to
track across MO. Widespread convection is expected late Mon
afternoon/early evening over the TX/OK Panhandle with this
activity forecast to track east and northeast Mon night. The
eastward progression of this activity will be aided by better jet
dynamics and upper diffluence spreading east as the upper low
rotates into NM/southern CO. Would expect some showers and storms
to linger across the area Tue morning with any convectively
induced impulses having a big impact on storm chances Tue
afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

By Wed morning weak upper trough will extend from eastern CO into
eastern NM with both ECMWF and GFS agreeing on a weak upper
impulse lifting across the Ozark region. With plenty of
instability around can't completely rule out a few storms about
anywhere on Wed, but feel the better chances will be tied to the
piece of energy tracking over the Ozark region. Good model
agreement on a deep upper trough digging over the West Coast for
Thu into Fri with some upper energy lingering under the upper
ridge from IA into Eastern OK. This feature will be the main focus
for showers and storms Wed into Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

* TSRA and low CIGs to impact the area through tonight

Plenty of low-level moisture plus increasing instability and various
low to mid-level boundaries will keep a risk of TSRA in play for the
remainder of the afternoon, and possibly into this evening. Through
the afternoon hours, it appears the greatest risk of TSRA will be
from KSLN south through KICT and east into southeast KS. By this
evening, the threat of TSRA should diminish across southern KS, but
may actually increase along the I-70 corridor. There's more
uncertainty with the TSRA potential this evening, so I opted to
leave TSRA/VCTS out of the TAFS in that area for now. In addition to
the TSRA threat, low CIGs will have an impact over much, if not all,
of the 18z TAF cycle.

EXTENDED PLANNING OUTLOOK: A continued risk of TSRA is expected
through the next several days, possibly lasting well into the
upcoming work week.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    60  75  60  75 /  30  30  60  60
Hutchinson      60  74  58  74 /  20  30  60  60
Newton          59  74  59  74 /  30  30  60  60
ElDorado        59  74  60  74 /  40  30  50  70
Winfield-KWLD   60  76  61  76 /  50  20  60  70
Russell         57  70  55  74 /  50  50  60  70
Great Bend      57  71  56  73 /  50  50  60  70
Salina          58  73  58  75 /  30  50  50  70
McPherson       59  73  58  74 /  30  40  60  70
Coffeyville     60  75  61  76 /  80  40  50  80
Chanute         59  74  61  76 /  80  60  50  70
Iola            59  74  60  76 /  80  60  50  70
Parsons-KPPF    60  74  61  76 /  80  50  50  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...RM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
439 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-171245-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
439 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered storms will affect parts of central and especially eastern
Kansas tonight. The stronger storms will be capable of nickel size
hail along with 50 to 60 mph winds. Heavy rain and flooding will
also remain a threat overnight with several flood warnings already
in effect. Do not drive across water covered roads.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There will be multiple opportunities for thunderstorms through next
week, some of which could be strong to marginally severe. However,
at this time, the threat of widespread, and or significant, severe
weather looks low. Flooding concerns may increase through next
week, especially for areas that see repeated rounds of
thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

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