Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
202 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

A mid/upper trough over western Oklahoma early this afternoon is
progged to move eastward into northern Arkansas this evening.

Tonight...widespread precipitation is expected to fill in on the
backside of this system during the afternoon hours and continue
through the evening hours with an intense deformation band
expected to develop on the northwest side of the mid/upper trough.
Initially, we'll see some elevated CAPE which will support
thunderstorms but this will fade as we move into the late
afternoon/early evening hours. There is still a broad zone of mid-
level frontogenesis coincident with a TROWAL signal and some
negative epv above the area of fronto-g all supportive of a more
organized area of snowfall this evening and tonight. The main
problem is our relatively "warm" surface layer that will require
some dynamic cooling to remain below 3C supporting snow at the
surface. The main change from the previous forecast was an
eastward and southeastward shift of the main axis of snowfall
while introducing some minor accumulations in the 1-2+ inch range
across the Turnpike and into the Flint Hills area or slightly
south and east of the previous forecast. Due to the "warm" surface
layer, confidence in snow accumulations remain low with some
forecast bust potential given the favorable column.

Thu-Sat...Dry weather conditions will return for Thursday with near
or slightly below normal temperatures anticipated. Breezy north
winds early in the period should relax as we move through the day
and the pressure gradient relaxes. A mid/upper ridge is progged to
build into the central CONUS late in the week and into the
weekend bringing dry and mild conditions to the area. Breezy south
winds will return on Saturday with above normal highs around 60
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Southwest flow will prevail at the start of the period with a
mean mid/upper trough situated across the western CONUS. We'll see
increasing chances for precipitation late on Sun and into the
beginning of the week as a mid/upper trough is progged to emerge
from the Rockies and move over the Central Plains on Mon-Tue
bringing another round of precipitation to the area. Unsettled
weather may linger into the middle of the week with mid/upper
troughing progged across the central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

The main concerns are precipitation type and low stratus trends.

A strong low pressure system over northern Oklahoma at midday,
will traverse slowly eastward reaching south-central Missouri by
late tonight. This will maintain a fairly tight pressure gradient
with gusty north winds across central and eastern Kansas this
afternoon through Thursday morning. Rain with embedded
thunderstorms will affect south-central and southeastern Kansas
this afternoon into tonight. Meanwhile, rain is expected to mix
with and change to snow for a few hours in south-central and
southeast KS, affecting the HUT, ICT, SLN and CNU terminals the
most, where wet snow accumulations of a half inch up to 2 inches
is possible, mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces. IFR
conditions should dominate in south-central and southeast KS
through this evening, then MVFR should prevail at all terminals by
early Thursday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Fire weather concerns will remain low the next few days due to
additional precipitation through tonight. Breezy southerly winds
will return on Saturday into Sunday which will allow the grassland
fire danger index to reach the very high category across portions of
the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    45  33  51  31 / 100 100   0   0
Hutchinson      39  31  50  28 / 100 100   0   0
Newton          43  31  50  29 / 100 100   0   0
ElDorado        46  32  50  31 / 100  90  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   48  33  51  33 / 100  70   0   0
Russell         39  29  51  26 /  90  50   0   0
Great Bend      37  29  50  26 /  90  50   0   0
Salina          39  31  52  28 / 100 100   0   0
McPherson       39  30  50  28 / 100 100   0   0
Coffeyville     53  35  48  32 /  90  70  20   0
Chanute         50  33  47  31 /  90  80  20   0
Iola            48  33  46  30 /  90  80  20   0
Parsons-KPPF    50  34  47  31 /  90  70  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ052-053-069>072-
093>096-098>100.

Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT
Thursday for KSZ052-053-068>072-083.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047>051-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...JMC
FIRE WEATHER...MWM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1145 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-181645-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1145 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong north winds will overspread the entire area today, with
sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts 45 mph. See the latest
wind advisory for further details.

Rain with embedded thunderstorms is expected this afternoon and
evening across south central and southeast Kansas. Isolated strong
to severe storms are possible in southeast Kansas with nickel to
quarter size hail. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out this
afternoon to the southeast of a Caney to Parsons line.

Rain is expected to mix with and change to wet snow very late this
afternoon into tonight across south-central into east-central
Kansas, where one to two inches of slushy snow is possible. Most of
the snow accumulations will be on elevated, grassy surfaces.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Showers and a few thunderstorms return to the region for Monday
night. At this time, the threat of strong to severe storms appears
to be low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

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