Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
704 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

Main concern and challenge is the severe magnitude late tonight
into midday Wednesday across south central/southeast Kansas.
Upper low over Arizona early this afternoon will move steadily
eastward this evening, before emerging over the southern high
Plains late tonight. Strong elevated low level moisture transport
will occur along/north of a increasingly baroclinic warm frontal
zone near the Oklahoma/Kansas border overnight. While the usual
differences are shown among the short guidance with regard to
moisture quality, even a general compromise would yield elevated
cape values around 1500 j/kg across far southern Kansas late
tonight in the presence of 45 to 60 kts of cloud bearing shear.
If the NAM/RAP are closer in not only showing better moisture and
instability but also bowing the surface further north to the
Kansas/Oklahoma border Wednesday morning, then an increased threat
for damaging winds and even a tornado will exist. So again, there
appears to be a risk for mainly elevated severe with large hail
in the 06z-12z time frame across south central Kansas and the
Flint Hills and then across southeast Kansas in the 12z-18/19z
time frame on Wednesday. A signal for locally heavy rainfall will
also exist across southern Kansas early Wednesday morning.
Otherwise, while a few strong storms will also be possible across
parts of central Kansas late tonight, locations north of highway
50 look to receive an extended period of mainly rain within the
deformation zone around the north side of the upper low as it
moves eastward across the area into Wednesday evening. A mixed
phase or transition to snow is possible in central Kansas
Wednesday night, before the precip ends early Thursday morning.
Little more than a trace of snow accum is expected at this time.
North winds on the back side of the deep tropospheric cyclone look
to reach criteria so will issue a Wind Advisory with this
forecast package along/west of I-135. Drier weather for Thursday,
though temperatures remaining rather cool, then slightly milder
for Friday.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

Upper ridge early Saturday will shift east of the area by Sunday
with a moderating/slight warming trend thru the weekend. The
medium range models are still trying to resolve shortwaves within
the developing split upper flow regime through early next week. An
upper trof looks to move into the central Plains by Monday which
should result in modest chances for showers and perhaps some
thunder. Then a stronger upper jet and trof looks to dive south
along the West coast with a closed low forming over Arizona by
Tuesday night. Overall, temperatures should trend close to late
March climo thru the period.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

Main concerns: Severe Storms late tonight and strong winds
tomorrow

Current VFR cigs/Vis are expected to deteriorate over the next
several hours as showers and storm develop across the area. Storms
will continue through the night and into tomorrow morning. Severe
storms capable of quarter to half- dollar size hail and 55-70 mph
winds will be possible especially over south central and southeast
KS. Strong to marginally severe storms with hail up to quarter
size and winds to 55 mph will be possible across central KS. E

Rain showers will continue tomorrow afternoon through the end of
the TAF period. There is a chance snow mixes with rain toward the
end of the period mainly across central KS.

Strong north winds are expected throughout the day tomorrow,
especially across central and south central KS. Sustained winds of
25kts with gusts to 30-36kts will be possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

Fire weather concerns will remain low the next couple days due to
widespread precipitation and higher daytime humidity levels.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    47  51  36  52 /  90  80  70   0
Hutchinson      43  47  33  51 /  90  90  80   0
Newton          45  49  34  50 /  90  90  80   0
ElDorado        47  53  35  51 /  90  90  80  10
Winfield-KWLD   50  57  36  52 /  90  70  60   0
Russell         36  42  30  50 /  90  90  50   0
Great Bend      37  42  31  49 /  90  90  50   0
Salina          42  47  33  52 /  90  90  80   0
McPherson       43  47  32  51 /  90  90  80   0
Coffeyville     53  65  38  50 /  80  80  70  10
Chanute         51  59  37  48 /  90  90  70  20
Iola            49  57  37  47 /  90  90  80  20
Parsons-KPPF    52  64  38  48 /  80  80  70  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ032-033-
047>051-067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...KMB
FIRE WEATHER...KED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
346 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-172100-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
346 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly after midnight, across
south central and parts of southeast Kansas. The main threat will be
large hail up to half dollar size. A threat for damaging winds to 70
mph and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out for locations close to
the Oklahoma border toward dawn.

Locally heavy rainfall can also be expected with some of the more
intense storm cores across southern Kansas. This could lead to
minor lowland flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Severe storms will also be possible Wednesday morning until about
noon time, mainly across the southern Flint Hills and southeast
Kansas. The main threats will be quarter size hail and wind gusts to
60 mph. A risk for a tornado may exist for locations mainly
southeast of an Iola to Sedan line.

Some of the rain may mix with or change to wet snow Wednesday night
across central Kansas. Little if any snow accumulation is expected
at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late tonight, mainly across south
central Kansas and the southern Flint Hills.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1021 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

KSZ082-091-170345-
Harper KS-Kingman KS-
1021 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northwestern Harper County in south central Kansas...
  Southeastern Kingman County in south central Kansas...

* Until 1045 PM CDT.

* At 1018 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 6 miles northeast of Attica...moving
  north at 35 mph.

* Hail up to the size of dimes will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Harper, Attica, Spivey, Rago and Crystal Springs.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
south central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3725 9801 3725 9825 3751 9825 3750 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0321Z 189DEG 29KT 3731 9814

BUTLER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1056 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

KSZ082-170430-
Kingman KS-
1056 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Kingman County in south central Kansas...

* Until 1130 PM CDT.

* At 1054 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 11 miles west of Norwich, or 12
  miles north of Harper...moving north at 20 mph.

* Hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 45 mph will be
  possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Kingman, Murdock, Cleveland and Rago.

LAT...LON 3741 9791 3742 9813 3765 9818 3765 9782
TIME...MOT...LOC 0356Z 199DEG 18KT 3747 9806

BUTLER