Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1225 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

Main concern and challenge is the severe magnitude late tonight
into midday Wednesday across south central/southeast Kansas.
Upper low over Arizona early this afternoon will move steadily
eastward this evening, before emerging over the southern high
Plains late tonight. Strong elevated low level moisture transport
will occur along/north of a increasingly baroclinic warm frontal
zone near the Oklahoma/Kansas border overnight. While the usual
differences are shown among the short guidance with regard to
moisture quality, even a general compromise would yield elevated
cape values around 1500 j/kg across far southern Kansas late
tonight in the presence of 45 to 60 kts of cloud bearing shear.
If the NAM/RAP are closer in not only showing better moisture and
instability but also bowing the surface further north to the
Kansas/Oklahoma border Wednesday morning, then an increased threat
for damaging winds and even a tornado will exist. So again, there
appears to be a risk for mainly elevated severe with large hail
in the 06z-12z time frame across south central Kansas and the
Flint Hills and then across southeast Kansas in the 12z-18/19z
time frame on Wednesday. A signal for locally heavy rainfall will
also exist across southern Kansas early Wednesday morning.
Otherwise, while a few strong storms will also be possible across
parts of central Kansas late tonight, locations north of highway
50 look to receive an extended period of mainly rain within the
deformation zone around the north side of the upper low as it
moves eastward across the area into Wednesday evening. A mixed
phase or transition to snow is possible in central Kansas
Wednesday night, before the precip ends early Thursday morning.
Little more than a trace of snow accum is expected at this time.
North winds on the back side of the deep tropospheric cyclone look
to reach criteria so will issue a Wind Advisory with this
forecast package along/west of I-135. Drier weather for Thursday,
though temperatures remaining rather cool, then slightly milder
for Friday.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

Upper ridge early Saturday will shift east of the area by Sunday
with a moderating/slight warming trend thru the weekend. The
medium range models are still trying to resolve shortwaves within
the developing split upper flow regime through early next week. An
upper trof looks to move into the central Plains by Monday which
should result in modest chances for showers and perhaps some
thunder. Then a stronger upper jet and trof looks to dive south
along the West coast with a closed low forming over Arizona by
Tuesday night. Overall, temperatures should trend close to late
March climo thru the period.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Expect flight conditions to deteriorate over the next few hours
with IFR expected in a few hours as colder air spreads south and
rain becomes more widespread. Thunderstorms most likely at KHUT
KICT and KCNU with mainly showers at KSLN, KRSL and KGBD. Winds
are expected to increase with lighter precipitation likely
lingering throughout the day. -Howerton

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

Fire weather concerns will remain low the next couple days due to
widespread precipitation and higher daytime humidity levels.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    45  51  36  52 /  90  80  70   0
Hutchinson      42  47  33  51 /  90  90  80   0
Newton          43  49  34  50 /  90  90  80   0
ElDorado        46  53  35  51 /  90  90  80  10
Winfield-KWLD   50  57  36  52 / 100  70  60   0
Russell         34  42  30  50 /  80  90  50   0
Great Bend      34  42  31  49 /  90  90  50   0
Salina          42  47  33  52 /  90  90  80   0
McPherson       42  47  32  51 /  90  90  80   0
Coffeyville     54  65  38  50 /  90  90  70  10
Chanute         49  59  37  48 /  90  90  70  20
Iola            48  57  37  47 /  90  90  80  20
Parsons-KPPF    52  64  38  48 /  90  90  70  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ032-033-047>051-067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...PJH
FIRE WEATHER...KED

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
138 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

KSZ083-092-170715-
Sumner KS-Sedgwick KS-
138 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northeastern Sumner County in south central Kansas...
  South central Sedgwick County in south central Kansas...

* Until 215 AM CDT.

* At 135 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles
  southeast of Conway Springs to Wellington...and moving northeast at
  30 mph.

* Hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
  possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Wellington, Clearwater, Belle Plaine, Wellington Airport and
  Riverdale.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
south central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3754 9746 3744 9719 3720 9741 3735 9758
TIME...MOT...LOC 0638Z 211DEG 26KT 3734 9752 3728 9742

BUTLER

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