Special Weather Statement, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
155 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

A very dangerous/volatile wx situation continues to evolve across
the mid TN Valley this Thu afternoon, as a second/stronger wave of
tstms develops/begins to spread NE out of south MS/west cntrl AL. The
warm front which is helping to fuel this new convective development
is beginning to lift nwd into north AL. Many of these tstm cells are
taking on more of a single cell structure which can be very
conducive to supercell development. With much of the region outlooked
in a Moderate/High probability for severe tstms, these cellular
storms will be capable of tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind
gusts thru the afternoon period and into the first half of this
evening. Given the increase in SBCAPE near 1-2K J/kg coupled with
0-1/3km SRH around 400-600 m2/s2 and 0-6/8km Bulk Shear values in the
60-80kt range, a few of these severe tstms may produce violent,
long-lived tornadoes. In addition to the severe wx threat, multiple
waves of locally heavy rainfall in the same areas may also translate
into a localized Flash Flooding threat, similar to some of the
flooding from this morning. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect
thru 1AM tonight. This is in addition to Tornado Watch 50 in effect
for all of the local area thru 8PM this evening.

This is again a very dangerous situation for this afternoon into this
evening. Have a severe wx plan in place and know what to do should a
warning be issued for your area. Lingering showers/tstms should then
begin to taper off from the west heading into the overnight hrs
following the passage of the oncoming cold front. In addition to the
convective watches, a Wind Advisory is also in effect thru 1AM for
gusty S/SW winds near 15 to 25MPH with gusts to 40MPH. These winds
should also weaken with the frontal passage, as overnight lows fall
into the upper 40s/near 50F for most spots.

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

A brief quiet period in the wx is then expected for the end of the
work week, as high pressure out of the Plains states quickly builds
into the region. This should translate in afternoon highs in the
lower 70s Fri, before temps drop into the lower 50s by early Sat.

The wx pattern then turns active again Sat/Sat night, as another
storm system develops across the srn Plains/wrn Gulf Coast before
lifting more to the E/NE. An attendant cold front will push thru much
of the region by Sun morning, with num/wide showers/tstms developing
along/ahead of the front. Given the increase in buoyant energy along
with an increasing low level jet, another wave of strong/marginally
severe tstms will be possible with this next storm system.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

As mentioned, this next front will push ewd thru the region into the
second half of the weekend, as another strong dome of high pressure
out of the Plains states builds into the region. This should provide
for some quiet/near seasonal conditions into the first half of next
week. Afternoon highs into the new week look to trend in the upper
60s/near 70F while overnight lows climb into the upper 40s/mid 50s.
Rain chances will also return Tue into Wed, as the sfc high moves
east of the region and moisture spreads back into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

Restricted flying conds are expected to continue at both primary
airports heading into the afternoon/evening hrs, as a second/stronger
wave of shra/tsra over south MS begins to lift newd. These shra/tsra
look to move into the area in the 19-20Z time frame, while a cold
front gradually approaches from the west. Some of these tsra may be
strong in nature, with the potential for vrb wind gusts near 30-40kt
and brief IFR conds/vis. Lingering shra/tsra will then begin to taper
off from the west heading into the late evening period, following the
passage of the cold front. Cigs look to lift well above 3K ft in the
04-06Z Fri time period, as sfc winds veer to the SW/W near 12-15kt
with higher gusts.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for ALZ001>010-016.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for TNZ076-096-097.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM...09
AVIATION...09

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
208 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-261130-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
208 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 50 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Alabama,
northeast Alabama, northwest Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

 Tornado Watch.
 Flash Flood Watch.
 Wind Advisory.

An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected across the region
this afternoon and evening, featuring all modes of severe weather
including significant damaging winds, large hail, and strong to
perhaps violent long-track tornadoes. In addition to the risk from
severe thunderstorms, multiple rounds of locally heavy rainfall will
lead to a heightened threat for both flash and areal flooding. Strong
environmental winds will also occur across the entire region outside
of thunderstorms, and a Wind Advisory remains in effect through 1 AM
CDT.

Conditions will begin to improve from west to east this evening as a
cold front moves across the region, with the threat for
thunderstorms ending across northeast Alabama around or shortly after
Midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Areal and river flooding will persist across the region on Friday.
However, flooding conditions could worsen over the weekend as the
frontal boundary will lift northward on Friday night, focusing
several waves of rain and thunderstorms that will impact the region
through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
requested until Tornado Watch 50 either expires or has been cancelled
for your location.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

70/DD

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