Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
211 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is expected to cross our area from the northwest late
Wednesday into early Thursday and bring more widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the region. Drying high pressure will spread back
over the region in the front's wake and linger through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Wednesday: Over the past few hours, we've been
seeing some fairly robust convective cells develop over our southern
Upstate zones, and some activity coming up from the SW and moving
into our NE Georgia zones. Sct convection will likely continue thru
the overnight hours, especially over the SLY upslope prone areas.
Stronger storms should be limited by the diminishing instability,
and heavier QPF should be limited by decent storm movement. The
abundant clouds will lead to mild mins some 3 degrees above climo
in most areas. Mtn valley fog will likely develop quickly with any
breaks in the clouds.

Once morning shower coverage and cloud cover thin out a bit,
guidance suggests robust instability will develop during the
afternoon, around the time that a frontal zone associated with
upstream height falls is expected to sweep across the forecast area.
Likely PoPs will be carried across portions of the mtns and across
the Piedmont, where less morning clouds/showers are anticipated.
Solid chance PoPs are advertised elsewhere. Deep-layer shear will be
meager in terms of the potential for organized storm structures.
However, 0-3 km shear in the 15-20 kts range should be sufficient to
support clustering along cold pools. Microbursts will be possible in
association with any clusters as well as with single cell pulse
storms. Temps are expected to be a little above climo through the
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 AM EDT Wednesday: The frontal zone is expected to be
in the far eastern CFWA during the beginning portions of the
short-term. Leftover moisture along the boundary may warrant an
early morning shower or thunderstorm along and east of the I-77
corridor, but dry air advection behind the fropa will lead to
much drier conditions during the day Thursday as high pressure
slowly builds in from the west. The upper trough over the Great
Lakes and OH Valley will help push the frontal boundary eastward
as the axis of the upper trough slips past the CFWA Thursday
evening. The sfc pressure gradient tightens up slightly Thursday
into Thursday night and could lead to low-end breezy conditions,
especially in the High Country, but any wind gusts should subside
by Friday morning as the center of the sfc high sets up shop
over the central Appalachians. Mostly sunny and dry conditions will
prevail through Friday as a result. Anomalously lower thicknesses
will keep temperatures in check with near-normal values expected
through the forecast period for highs and a category below normal
for lows as good radiational cooling processes will be in store for
both Thursday and Friday nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 2:15 PM EDT Tuesday: Throughout the extended forecast period,
high pressure will remain the dominate synoptic feature. This will
lead to dry conditions Friday night into early next week. Southerly
flow will be in place allowing temps to gradually increase this
weekend into early next week. High temps this weekend will be about
3 to 8 degrees above normal, becoming 5 to 10 degrees above normal
early next week. Tuesday southerly flow could act to pull in
moisture off the Gulf of Mexico potentially increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances. However, confidence on this is low as it is
towards the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: We've been seeing some robust convective
cells develop over our southern Upstate zones, and some activity
coming up from the SW and moving into our NE Georgia zones. Sct
convection will likely continue through the overnight hours,
especially over the SLY upslope prone areas. Additional VCSH
and/or TEMPOs for SHRA and/or TSRA may be needed through the
overnight and into the morning, mainly across the Upstate sites
and near KAVL, with KAND already carrying a TEMPO for TSRA for
the first couple hours of the period from 06 to 08z. Signals
remain mixed wrt the potential for early morning fog/low stratus,
but any breaks in the clouds will likely permit LIFR conditions
to develop quickly over the mtn valleys and around KAVL. Winds
will be mainly light and SLY to SWLY for the bulk of the period,
but with an uptick in speed to about 10kt with some low-end gusts
this afternoon. I kept the PROB30s for convective chances for
the afternoon/evening hours with the approach of the front from
the NW. Most of the precip should be moving east of our fcst area
as the taf period ends at 06z.

Outlook: Generally fair weather and high pressure is expected
on Thursday in the wake of the frontal passage. The fair wx will
likely persist thru the weekend and into early next week. Mtn
valley fog and low stratus will remain possible each morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG/JPT
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...JPT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1038 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-068>072-
082-507>510-SCZ001>014-019-090245-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Madison-Swain-Haywood-
Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
1038 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the
Piedmont, southern foothills, and central and southern mountains of
western North Carolina, as well as Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will redevelop from the southwest
through the overnight hours. The main impacts with any thunderstorms
that form will be briefly gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and
cloud-to-ground lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-501>506-090245-
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Yancey-Mitchell-Catawba-Rowan-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
1038 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the northwest Piedmont,
northern foothills, and northern mountains of western North
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1146 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021

SCZ011-019-080415-
Abbeville SC-Greenwood SC-
1146 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN
ABBEVILLE AND SOUTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM EDT...

At 1145 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with
intense lightning near Abbeville, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenwood, Abbeville, Due West, Hodges, Troy, Cokesbury, Calhoun
Falls, Promised Land and Bradley.

In addition to intense lightning, very heavy rainfall rates up to 2
inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3406 8233 3406 8246 3408 8248 3407 8250
      3407 8252 3411 8261 3436 8237 3422 8206
      3400 8222 3402 8225 3397 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 0345Z 220DEG 15KT 3415 8236

CAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1215 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

SCZ011-012-019-080500-
Laurens SC-Abbeville SC-Greenwood SC-
1215 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN
LAURENS...EAST CENTRAL ABBEVILLE AND NORTHERN GREENWOOD COUNTIES
UNTIL 100 AM EDT...

At 1215 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with
intense lightning 5 miles west of Greenwood, moving northeast at 20
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenwood, Abbeville, Ware Shoals, Ninety Six, Cross Hill, Cokesbury,
Waterloo, Hodges, Lake Greenwood and Greenwood State Park.

In addition to intense lightning, very heavy rainfall rates up to 2
inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3417 8240 3450 8224 3429 8190 3424 8191
      3420 8194 3406 8221
TIME...MOT...LOC 0415Z 218DEG 16KT 3420 8225

CAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
100 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

GAZ028-SCZ010-080530-
Hart GA-Anderson SC-
100 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN
HART AND CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM EDT...

At 100 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with intense
lightning 8 miles east of Hartwell, or 5 miles west of Starr, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Anderson, Homeland Park, Northlake, Starr, Anderson Airport, Lake
Hartwell, Iva, Reed Creek, Sandy Springs and Broadway Lake.

In addition to intense lightning, very heavy rainfall rates up to 2
inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3427 8275 3429 8277 3428 8279 3432 8292
      3462 8284 3464 8283 3447 8249 3426 8272
TIME...MOT...LOC 0500Z 206DEG 10KT 3438 8279

CAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
118 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

GAZ028-SCZ010-080545-
Hart GA-Anderson SC-
118 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT CENTRAL HART AND
SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM EDT...

At 118 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with intense
lightning near Hartwell, moving northeast at 5 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hartwell, Reed Creek, Lake Hartwell, Homeland Park and Sadlers Creek
State Park.

In addition to intense lightning, very heavy rainfall rates up to 2
inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3433 8303 3449 8298 3455 8292 3445 8266
      3427 8287
TIME...MOT...LOC 0518Z 223DEG 6KT 3434 8293

CAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
227 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

GAZ010-017-018-026-SCZ001-004-080700-
Franklin GA-Rabun GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-Greater Oconee SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
227 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN
FRANKLIN...STEPHENS...EASTERN HABERSHAM...CENTRAL RABUN AND OCONEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM EDT...

At 227 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with intense
lightning 8 miles east of Toccoa, or 6 miles southwest of
Westminster, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Toccoa, Seneca, Walhalla, Clayton, Westminster, Gumlog, Martin,
Avalon, Tallulah Falls and Lake Rabun.

In addition to intense lightning, very heavy rainfall rates up to 2
inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3445 8309 3449 8344 3474 8352 3497 8333
      3479 8289
TIME...MOT...LOC 0627Z 207DEG 21KT 3462 8319

CAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
309 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

GAZ010-018-026-028-SCZ001-004-080745-
Hart GA-Franklin GA-Rabun GA-Stephens GA-Greater Oconee SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
309 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT FRANKLIN...
STEPHENS...EASTERN RABUN...NORTHWESTERN HART AND CENTRAL OCONEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM EDT...

At 309 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms with intense
lightning along a line extending from 6 miles east of Clayton to 5
miles west of Carnesville, and moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Toccoa, Walhalla, Carnesville, Westminster, Lavonia, Gumlog, Canon,
Bowersville, Martin and Avalon.

In addition to intense lightning, very heavy rainfall rates up to 2
inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors, try
to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away
from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When
indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired
electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug
unnecessary appliances before the storms approach.

&&

LAT...LON 3433 8339 3439 8338 3444 8339 3468 8336
      3469 8334 3470 8335 3472 8335 3492 8333
      3500 8301 3432 8303 3428 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 0709Z 250DEG 11KT 3488 8329 3437 8333

CAC