Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
118 PM MDT Mon May 24 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Mon May 24 2021

17Z WV imagery and RAP analysis indicate CWA on southern periphery
of trough and associated jet streak, which was centered over the
northern plains. At the surface, fairly widespread stratus remains
over the center portions of the area with fog and even measurable
drizzle occurring along Interstate 70.

Main forecast concerns will be thunderstorm chances and severity
this afternoon and evening.

While stratus deck has complicated forecast , this should continue
to mix out through the afternoon and with dewpoints in the lower
60s, will not take much insolation for atmosphere to destabilize.
With MLCAPES in the 1000-2000 j/kg range and effective shear in
the 35-50 kt range expect environment to be favorable for
development of severe storms. For initation, looking at two areas
of initial thunderstorm development. The first will be along
east- west oriented outflow boundary across southern CWA. Skies
have cleared in this area and with apparent triple point forming
along it, think forcing will be strongest in this area.

A secondary area will extend to the north of Tribune towards
McCook, although recent observations seem to suggest this
convergent area has diminished some what, which lowers confidence
for this area being a primary development area. If storms do not
develop in this area, may have to wait until the evening period
before any storms forming over Colorado can make it into the area.

For threats, large hail appears the most likely threat with
stronger storms, but given supercell potential and aided by
differential heating and backed winds along outflow boundary think
possibility for a tornado remains. Right now, it appears favored
area will be in the Greeley-Wichita county area along
aforementioned outflow boundary. Should areas farther north
destabilize and convergence along trough intensify along a
Goodland to McCook line, may see a threat for a brief tornado or
land spout given the strong low level instability along this
boundary.

Low level jet intensifies in the evening and will support the
development of more widespread precipitation along and north of
H85 frontal zone which may be accompanied by a few larger hail
storms, but with storms not being rooted in boundary layer shear
profiles will not be as strong as the afternoon. Finally,
precipitable water values over an inch and recent trends with
precipitation support the threat for heavy rain. A few areas
received heavy rain last night may be more at risk for flooding,
but confidence not high enough in heavy rain lining up with these
areas to warrant a watch.

Cold front will sweep through the area overnight, clearing out any
fog and storms through the morning hours and ushering in a bit of
quiet weather.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 117 PM MDT Mon May 24 2021

The long term period looks to be unsettled though there should be a
few days with quieter weather. High temperatures should be near to
slightly above average through the week. Potential for slightly
below average temperatures next week.

Wednesday starts with a chance for severe weather during the
afternoon and evening hours with the main threat currently favoring
locales east of Hwy 83. With the area under southwest flow aloft,
there is a chance for a shortwave to move through the area during
the afternoon hours. Guidance is also suggesting that a surface low
will move off the Front Range and into Western KS. Finally, guidance
is suggesting that MLCAPE could reach above 2000 J/KG along with
lapse rates greater than 8C and effective shear reaching 40 knots.
It is still a bit early to assume that those parameters will hold
and be exact, but they do suggest that instability will be present
should storms form. High temperatures are expected to reach the 80's
though how high they go will depend on when/where cloud cover forms.

Thursday and Friday are forecasted to be a bit quieter as a cold
front moves in from the northwest late Wed/early Thur and brings
slightly cooler temperatures and drier air. The upper air pattern
aloft is expected to be more laminar during these days and higher
surface pressure is expected to move into the Plains. With all of
this in mind, Thursday and Friday will have lower POPs and sunnier
skies are more likely though an isolated thunderstorm can not be
ruled out due to daytime heating and dewpoints potentially reaching
the mid 50's. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid 70's
to lower 80's.

For the weekend, more uncertainty in the forecast as guidance
diverges in the expected solution for the surface pattern. Guidance
agrees on the upper level pattern transitioning to a broad ridge
over the East-Central CONUS with a trough moving into the Western
CONUS. At the surface, guidance does keep lower pressure to the
southwest of the Tri-State area with higher pressure north and east.
However, the GFS bring the center of the low pressure closer to the
area Sunday while the ECMWF keeps the higher pressure over the area.
The closer the low pressure, the greater the synoptic lift will be
present for storms. Meanwhile the pattern supports Gulf of Mexico
moisture moving north into the area similar to the past week. So
depending on how things set up, there will be a chance for
afternoon/evening storms through the weekend with the potential for
severe weather as well. This will become clearer as we get closer to
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Mon May 24 2021

PERSISTENT LIFR conditions at GLD will improve quickly in the
next 2 hours as fog and stratus deck mixes out, but given the size
of cloud field, think MVFR ceilings may linger around through the
afternoon. Both KGLD and KMCK will likely be impacted by
thunderstorms in the afternoon and again through the overnight
hours. Initial thunderstorms will be accompanied by mvfr
conditions, but think precipitation will also bring IFR conditions
overnight as stratus and fog redevelop. A cold front will sweep
through the area around 12z, bringing a return to VFR conditions.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...JRM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1044 AM MDT Mon May 24 2021

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-251645-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
1044 AM MDT Mon May 24 2021 /1144 AM CDT Mon May 24 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Thunderstorms will develop across the area, mainly along and east of
a Weskan to McCook line after 1 PM MDT (2 PM CDT). Large hail
approaching golf ball size, damaging wind gusts and a tornado are
possible. Thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours and
may become more widespread, with the threat transitioning to large
hail.

The threat for tornadoes will occur in two primary areas through the
early evening. The first is along a Wallace to Oberlin line and if a
tornado were to occur in this area it would likely be brief. The
second area will be across Greeley and Wichita counties, the
potential for a longer lived tornado will be higher in this area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of the region
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Threats will include large hail,
damaging wind, heavy rain and a small threat for tornadoes/

For next weekend, there will be the chance for some strong to severe
thunderstorms to occur each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely after 1 PM MDT (2 PM CDT).

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