Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
131 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

...Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

Satellite and observations show a band of clouds through the central
part of the forecast area this afternoon. The band has been
narrowing during the day and is not moving south as quickly as it
was. The showers/sprinkles have moved out of the area. Temperatures
under the band of clouds has been cooler than the areas in sunshine.

There is a weak cold front/boundary that has been sagging to the
south during the day. The front is in the vicinity of the
Kansas/Nebraska state line at this time. Other than a wind shift,
there really is not much difference due to the front. Temperatures
are actually cooler due to the cloud cover than the front. There is
a weak upper level wave that is expected to move through the area
this evening. Models have at least a little convection that develops
in the vicinity of the front as the wave moves through. There is
already some cumulus that is developing due to the heating in north
central Kansas. The combination of the front, the wave and daytime
heating could be enough to get things going late this afternoon and
as the wave moves through this evening, expect it to keep going with
at least some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The
extent of the precipitation should remain mainly in north central
Kansas, barely spilling over into extreme southern Nebraska.

There is a very weak upper level wave that moves through the area on
Sunday. Have kept some PoPs in the southern part of the forecast
area which is closest to the front/boundary that stalls and weakens
further in the far southern part of the area. Sunday night into
Monday morning is a little bit of a challenge. There are a couple of
weak waves that move through but timing them is a little off. Have
kept the chances for Sunday night into Monday morning, but the
chances are fairly low.

Monday through Thursday the upper level ridge builds across the
area. Temperatures will be on the rise and heat index values will be
a concern. The warmest day at this time appears to be Wednesday.

Later on Thursday another weak front moves through the area.
Temperatures will be a little cooler, but still be above normal for
this time of year. There is also an upper level wave that moves
through and there are some small chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

Ceiling/visibility/precipitation:
By far the main issue (and also uncertainty) comes right away this
morning through these first 9 hours or so, as confidence is at least
medium that especially KGRI and perhaps also KEAR will see
shallow fog development and resultant reduced visibility. However,
passing high clouds from weak convection only 20-60 miles to the
southwest (as of this writing) could be a complicating and
possibly mitigating factor to fog development. That being said,
have opted to introduce gradually deteriorating visbility early
this morning, with MVFR/IFR the most likely prevailing condition
especially between 10-14Z, but with a TEMPO group at KGRI as low
as LIFR. Of course, at least brief VLIFR in dense fog (1/4SM)
cannot be ruled out, but did not have enough confidence to
formally advertise this. Once any potential morning fog
lifts/burns off, confidence is relatively high in VFR
visibility/ceiling through the remainder of the period with only
varying degrees of mid-high level clouds. As for
precipitation/thunderstorm chances, later TAFs may have to
consider at least a "vicinity" (VCTS) to account for possible
activity in the nearby area at some point today (mainly during the
daylight hours), but have left out for now as most models keep
the brunt of convection at least slightly south of both KGRI/KEAR.

Winds:
Assuming no convective influences, winds appear much more
straightforward than visibility etc. In short, a very
light/variable direction regime will prevail early this morning
before giving way to a somewhat steadier southeasterly breeze
during the day, but only near-to-below 10KT. Late in the period
Sunday evening, direction will shift more southerly but remain
fairly light.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...JCB
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

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