Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
625 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

Satellite and observations show a band of clouds through the central
part of the forecast area this afternoon. The band has been
narrowing during the day and is not moving south as quickly as it
was. The showers/sprinkles have moved out of the area. Temperatures
under the band of clouds has been cooler than the areas in sunshine.

There is a weak cold front/boundary that has been sagging to the
south during the day. The front is in the vicinity of the
Kansas/Nebraska state line at this time. Other than a wind shift,
there really is not much difference due to the front. Temperatures
are actually cooler due to the cloud cover than the front. There is
a weak upper level wave that is expected to move through the area
this evening. Models have at least a little convection that develops
in the vicinity of the front as the wave moves through. There is
already some cumulus that is developing due to the heating in north
central Kansas. The combination of the front, the wave and daytime
heating could be enough to get things going late this afternoon and
as the wave moves through this evening, expect it to keep going with
at least some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The
extent of the precipitation should remain mainly in north central
Kansas, barely spilling over into extreme southern Nebraska.

There is a very weak upper level wave that moves through the area on
Sunday. Have kept some PoPs in the southern part of the forecast
area which is closest to the front/boundary that stalls and weakens
further in the far southern part of the area. Sunday night into
Monday morning is a little bit of a challenge. There are a couple of
weak waves that move through but timing them is a little off. Have
kept the chances for Sunday night into Monday morning, but the
chances are fairly low.

Monday through Thursday the upper level ridge builds across the
area. Temperatures will be on the rise and heat index values will be
a concern. The warmest day at this time appears to be Wednesday.

Later on Thursday another weak front moves through the area.
Temperatures will be a little cooler, but still be above normal for
this time of year. There is also an upper level wave that moves
through and there are some small chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

Satellite still showing a scattered deck of higher clouds out
there around and south of the terminals, along with some smoke
haze. Expect a rather calm night with VFR conditions and light
winds. These conditions are expected to continue through tomorrow
as well.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...JCB
AVIATION...Shawkey

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
336 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
251200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
336 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

This afternoon, heat index values as high as 100 to 105 degrees
are expected in southern portions of the outlook area,
particularly in north central Kansas.

Also this afternoon into tonight, isolated to perhaps scattered
thunderstorms are possible, mainly near and especially south of
the Nebraska-Kansas border. Although the risk for severe storms
appears fairly low, a few storms could produce gusty winds up to
around 50 MPH, along with localized heavy rainfall. The main time
frame of concern for any stronger storms is through 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There will be a prolonged stretch of hot temperatures during the
upcoming week. The hottest days currently look to be Tuesday
through Thursday, when most of the outlook area is expected to
reach heat index values of at least 100 to 105 degrees.

Although coverage is expected to be pretty limited and spotty,
small chances for thunderstorms exist from Sunday morning through
Monday morning for portions of the outlook area. Severe storms
appear fairly unlikely during this time. Thunderstorm chances
return to the forecast for portions of the area late Thursday
night into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any thunderstorm wind gusts of
around 50 MPH or higher that might affect southern portions of
the outlook area this afternoon into this evening.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
646 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

KSZ007-250030-
Jewell KS-
646 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEWELL COUNTY UNTIL
730 PM CDT...

At 645 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Randall, or 13 miles northeast of Beloit, moving east at 10 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Jewell
County.

LAT...LON 3957 9809 3977 9809 3984 9794 3958 9793
      3957 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 283DEG 9KT 3964 9798

Rossi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
701 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

KSZ017-018-250045-
Rooks KS-Osborne KS-
701 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ROOKS AND WESTERN
OSBORNE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 701 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles south of Kirwin to Woodston to 10 miles
north of Codell. Movement was southeast at 5 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

People in northeastern Rooks and western Osborne Counties should
monitor the weather situation closely.  Be ready to seek shelter if
these storms threaten the area.

LAT...LON 3924 9924 3946 9919 3957 9924 3957 9891
      3936 9890 3923 9891
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 295DEG 5KT 3956 9917 3944 9911 3934 9913

Rossi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
720 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

KSZ005-NEZ083-250100-
Phillips KS-Harlan NE-
720 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PHILLIPS AND
SOUTHWESTERN HARLAN COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 720 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Long Island, or 17 miles northwest of Phillipsburg, moving northeast
at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
  Woodruff.

LAT...LON 3990 9947 3993 9960 4009 9953 4004 9931
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 209DEG 7KT 3996 9951

Rossi