Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
641 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

Focus is on thunderstorms/severe weather late this evening/tonight...

The pattern aloft featured west/southwest flow ahead of a couple
shortwave troughs translating through the northern/central Rockies
towards the plains. At the surface, low pressure was centered in
southeast CO with a dry line extending to the south, and a cold
front was oriented to the north into far southwest Neb on into
central South Dakota. Moisture advected north into our region in
southerly flow ahead of the front and dps have risen into the upper
50s/around 60F across much of our cwa. The morning low cloud cover
has become more scattered this aftn, allowing for increasing
insolation and destabilization. The latest SPC meso page shows
instability around 1500 j/kg already and models prog instability
around 2000 j/kg by evening before the cold front arrives.

The progressing cold frontal boundary will provide the focus/lift
for showers/thunderstorms as we head through the evening/overnight
hours with latest CAMs showing initial storm development as early as
5 PM but more so 7-8 PM or after. Storms are expected to align
along the boundary while western convection along the front
range/high plains rolls eastward...with a complex of storms
impacting our region into tonight. Conditions will be favorable
for strong to severe storms...bringing a primary damaging wind
threat with 70 mph winds possible along a line of storms...and
storms will also be capable of producing large hail around the
size of ping pong balls. The latest SPC Day 1 outlook has upgraded
portions of north central KS to an enhanced severe weather risk
and the slight risk extends into southwest Neb.

Heavy rainfall is also a concern from the storms given the moisture
availability with dps around 60F and precipitable water values
ranging from 0.75" to 1.25" (which average 1-2 standard deviations
above normal for this time of year). Our current QPF ranges from
roughly a third of an inch on the low end to around 2" on the high
end and as is the nature of convection...there will be winners and
losers on rainfall with some locations seeing little rain and other
areas could exceed the 2" amount. There is still some uncertainty on
where the axis of heavy rain will align and overall trends have
shifted a little farther to the south/southwest.

Also tonight, the cold frontal passage will be a noticeable one.
Aside from the storms, the front will bring an abrupt wind shift to
the north and wind speeds will ramp up behind the boundary. Wind
gusts of 35-40 mph are expected to be common and would not be
surprised if a few locations see gusts near 50 mph.

For the most part, the convection is expected to depart by daybreak
Monday with perhaps some lingering showers/storms in our eastern or
far southern zones. Monday's weather is not looking overly nice with
noticeably cooler temps, strong/gusty north winds and clouds around.

Towards Monday night, an upper trough moving out of the Central
Rockies is expected to bring another round of precip to portions of
the Southern and Central Plains region, mainly to our south across
KS and have carried buffer pops. Temperaturewise, our northwest
zones are forecast to see some chilly overnight low temps Monday
night/Tuesday morning with readings in the low/mid 30s and some
frost development is possible.

Our region generally stays in a cooler pattern under the influence
of an upper trough for much of the upcoming week, with several days
of highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s/40s. Small chances for
precip return around the middle of the workweek and and return again
intermittently for next weekend. Temps looks to moderate to some
degree late in the week/next weekend with high temps closer to the
70 degree mark.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected throughout this
evening and into the overnight hours with the passage of a cold
front. The main concerns are strong winds, heavy rain, and
frequent lightning. There is also the possibility for some small
hail, though the environment doesn't look to be as supportive of a
hail threat. Winds are expected to increase over the next few
hours and continue to be breezy throughout tomorrow. Winds could
get up to around 20-25kt sustained with gusts up to around
30-35kts at times.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Fay
AVIATION...Shawkey

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
558 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
031200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
558 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and
tonight as a cold frontal boundary crosses the outlook area.
Storms are expected to develop between 6 and 8 pm and continue
into the overnight hours. The storms will be capable of producing
damaging winds of 70 mph and large hail the size of golf balls.
The greater threat for severe storms is focused across north
central Kansas into far southern Nebraska. In addition, heavy
rainfall in excess of one and two inches could cause localized
flooding.

Also tonight, strong north winds may gust near 50 mph behind a
cold front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

More chances for thunderstorms exist for portions of the outlook
area Wednesday afternoon and evening, and then Friday night into
Saturday night. At this time, the threat for severe storms
appears low for Wednesday, but it is too early to confidently
assess the severe storm potential Friday night into Saturday.

Early Tuesday morning, it could get just cold enough to allow
some frost to develop, mainly for locations west of a line from
Cambridge to Loup City to Greeley. However, sub-freezing
temperatures are not anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report hail, severe winds or instances
of flooding this evening and tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1030 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1006 PM     FLASH FLOOD      AURORA                  40.86N 98.00W
05/02/2021                   HAMILTON           NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODED STREETS IN AURORA, INCLUDING
            UNDERPASS ON HIGHWAY 14.

&&

MH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1114 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

KSZ007-NEZ077-085>087-030515-
Jewell KS-Thayer NE-Nuckolls NE-Webster NE-Fillmore NE-
1114 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JEWELL...NUCKOLLS...SOUTHEASTERN
WEBSTER...SOUTHEASTERN FILLMORE AND THAYER COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM
CDT...

At 1114 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Milligan to Oak to near Esbon. Movement
was southeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Geneva, Superior, Hebron, Mankato, Deshler, Exeter, Nelson, Shickley,
Davenport, Milligan, Bruning, Chester, Guide Rock, Alexandria, Burr
Oak, Hardy, Ruskin, Ohiowa, Esbon and Formoso.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
north central Kansas...and south central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4000 9737 4000 9793 3975 9793 3961 9839
      4005 9852 4035 9793 4035 9783 4042 9782
      4067 9740 4064 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0414Z 325DEG 21KT 4056 9743 4026 9791 3979 9845

Mangels