Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Hastings, NE

585 
WGUS83 KGID 031453 RRA
FLSGID

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
953 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021

NEC001-099-137-031503-
/O.EXP.KGID.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210503T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Adams NE-Kearney NE-Phelps NE-
953 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR 
NORTHWESTERN ADAMS, CENTRAL KEARNEY AND CENTRAL PHELPS COUNTIES...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat.

LAT...LON 4057 9955 4061 9918 4063 9893 4068 9871
      4069 9856 4061 9846 4052 9845 4047 9872
      4046 9881 4045 9918 4042 9957 4058 9955

$$

Wesely

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
139 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

Focus is on thunderstorms/severe weather late this evening/tonight...

The pattern aloft featured west/southwest flow ahead of a couple
shortwave troughs translating through the northern/central Rockies
towards the plains. At the surface, low pressure was centered in
southeast CO with a dry line extending to the south, and a cold
front was oriented to the north into far southwest Neb on into
central South Dakota. Moisture advected north into our region in
southerly flow ahead of the front and dps have risen into the upper
50s/around 60F across much of our cwa. The morning low cloud cover
has become more scattered this aftn, allowing for increasing
insolation and destabilization. The latest SPC meso page shows
instability around 1500 j/kg already and models prog instability
around 2000 j/kg by evening before the cold front arrives.

The progressing cold frontal boundary will provide the focus/lift
for showers/thunderstorms as we head through the evening/overnight
hours with latest CAMs showing initial storm development as early as
5 PM but more so 7-8 PM or after. Storms are expected to align
along the boundary while western convection along the front
range/high plains rolls eastward...with a complex of storms
impacting our region into tonight. Conditions will be favorable
for strong to severe storms...bringing a primary damaging wind
threat with 70 mph winds possible along a line of storms...and
storms will also be capable of producing large hail around the
size of ping pong balls. The latest SPC Day 1 outlook has upgraded
portions of north central KS to an enhanced severe weather risk
and the slight risk extends into southwest Neb.

Heavy rainfall is also a concern from the storms given the moisture
availability with dps around 60F and precipitable water values
ranging from 0.75" to 1.25" (which average 1-2 standard deviations
above normal for this time of year). Our current QPF ranges from
roughly a third of an inch on the low end to around 2" on the high
end and as is the nature of convection...there will be winners and
losers on rainfall with some locations seeing little rain and other
areas could exceed the 2" amount. There is still some uncertainty on
where the axis of heavy rain will align and overall trends have
shifted a little farther to the south/southwest.

Also tonight, the cold frontal passage will be a noticeable one.
Aside from the storms, the front will bring an abrupt wind shift to
the north and wind speeds will ramp up behind the boundary. Wind
gusts of 35-40 mph are expected to be common and would not be
surprised if a few locations see gusts near 50 mph.

For the most part, the convection is expected to depart by daybreak
Monday with perhaps some lingering showers/storms in our eastern or
far southern zones. Monday's weather is not looking overly nice with
noticeably cooler temps, strong/gusty north winds and clouds around.

Towards Monday night, an upper trough moving out of the Central
Rockies is expected to bring another round of precip to portions of
the Southern and Central Plains region, mainly to our south across
KS and have carried buffer pops. Temperaturewise, our northwest
zones are forecast to see some chilly overnight low temps Monday
night/Tuesday morning with readings in the low/mid 30s and some
frost development is possible.

Our region generally stays in a cooler pattern under the influence
of an upper trough for much of the upcoming week, with several days
of highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s/40s. Small chances for
precip return around the middle of the workweek and and return again
intermittently for next weekend. Temps looks to moderate to some
degree late in the week/next weekend with high temps closer to the
70 degree mark.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 138 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021

General overview:
We are down to the last 1-4 hours few hours of steady, lingering
light rain (lasting longer at KGRI than KEAR), with dry conditions
then likely through the remainder of the period. The lingering
rain is light enough that VFR visibility will likely prevail from
here on out. Ceilings are a major question mark, as the overall
likelihood/duration of MVFR ceiling appears to have backed off
versus expectations from the 00Z TAF issuance. As a result, have
now confined the window of opportunity for MVFR to the 12-20Z time
frame (and even then suspect it may not be solidly last that
entire time before lifting to at least low-end VFR and/or
scattering out). As for winds, the ongoing convection has actually
kept winds a bit lighter/more variable in direction the past
several hours, but based on upstream obs a steadier/gusty north
wind is not far away, and expect much of especially the 12-00Z
time frame to feature sustained speeds commonly around 20KT/gusts
to around 30KT. Winds will start dropping off again Monday
evening, with speeds by around sunset/especially after easing down
to around 10KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Fay
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1221 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
031200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
1221 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Overnight.

Although the threat for severe thunderstorms has ended for the
night, general, non-severe storms capable of producing brief
heavy rain, small hail and wind gusts up to around 45 MPH will
remain possible through around 3 AM in far southeast portions of
the outlook area, particularly within Thayer, Nuckolls and
Fillmore counties.

Due to small corridors of very heavy rain that fell Sunday
afternoon and evening, various Flash Flood Warnings, Flood
Advisories and a Flood Warning remain in effect early this
morning, affecting portions of the following counties: Hamilton,
Adams, Kearney, Phelps, Gosper, Polk, York and Rooks. Please refer
to the Warning and Advisory statements for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorm chances exist for various portions of the outlook
area Wednesday afternoon and evening, and then Friday night into
Saturday night. At this time, the threat for severe storms appears
low for Wednesday, but it is too early to confidently assess the
severe storm potential Friday night into Saturday.

Early Tuesday morning, it could get just cold enough to allow
some frost to develop, mainly for locations west of a line from
Cambridge to Loup City to Greeley. However, sub-freezing
temperatures are not anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any flooding impacts,
particularly any possible water covering roads.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Pfannkuch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1030 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1006 PM     FLASH FLOOD      AURORA                  40.86N 98.00W
05/02/2021                   HAMILTON           NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODED STREETS IN AURORA, INCLUDING
            UNDERPASS ON HIGHWAY 14.

&&

MH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1114 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

KSZ007-NEZ077-085>087-030515-
Jewell KS-Thayer NE-Nuckolls NE-Webster NE-Fillmore NE-
1114 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JEWELL...NUCKOLLS...SOUTHEASTERN
WEBSTER...SOUTHEASTERN FILLMORE AND THAYER COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM
CDT...

At 1114 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Milligan to Oak to near Esbon. Movement
was southeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Geneva, Superior, Hebron, Mankato, Deshler, Exeter, Nelson, Shickley,
Davenport, Milligan, Bruning, Chester, Guide Rock, Alexandria, Burr
Oak, Hardy, Ruskin, Ohiowa, Esbon and Formoso.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
north central Kansas...and south central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4000 9737 4000 9793 3975 9793 3961 9839
      4005 9852 4035 9793 4035 9783 4042 9782
      4067 9740 4064 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0414Z 325DEG 21KT 4056 9743 4026 9791 3979 9845

Mangels

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1129 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     FLOOD            2 ENE JUNIATA           40.60N 98.46W
05/02/2021                   ADAMS              NE   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: STREET/ROAD FLOODING;
            STREET/ROAD CLOSED; VEHICLES STRANDED.

&&

MANGELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     HEAVY RAIN       AURORA                  40.87N 98.00W
05/02/2021  M3.57 INCH       HAMILTON           NE   MESONET

            DAILY TOTAL FROM DAVIS WEATHERLINK STATION.
            LIGHT RAIN STILL ONGOING.

&&

MANGELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1208 AM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 PM     HAIL             9 N STOCKTON            39.56N 99.29W
05/02/2021  E1.00 INCH       ROOKS              KS   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HAIL VISIBLE ON HIGHWAY CAMERA AT BOW CREEK
            BRIDGE. ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND QUARTER SIZE.

&&

MANGELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1210 AM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     HAIL             8 SSE GLADE             39.57N 99.27W
05/02/2021  E0.70 INCH       PHILLIPS           KS   PUBLIC

0637 PM     HAIL             9 N STOCKTON            39.56N 99.29W
05/02/2021  E1.00 INCH       ROOKS              KS   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HAIL VISIBLE ON HIGHWAY CAMERA AT BOW CREEK
            BRIDGE. ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND QUARTER SIZE.

0732 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WSW CAMBRIDGE         40.28N 100.19W
05/02/2021  M64 MPH          FURNAS             NE   STORM CHASER

            MEASURED WITH A HAND HELD ANEMOMETER.

0745 PM     HAIL             MINDEN                  40.50N 98.95W
05/02/2021  E1.25 INCH       KEARNEY            NE   AMATEUR RADIO

0748 PM     HAIL             MINDEN                  40.50N 98.95W
05/02/2021  E1.75 INCH       KEARNEY            NE   AMATEUR RADIO

0750 PM     TORNADO          1 SSE AURORA            40.85N 98.00W
05/02/2021                   HAMILTON           NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER CONFIRMS THAT A LANDSPOUT
            BLEW IN GARAGE DOORS AT A STORAGE UNIT ON
            THE EXTREME SOUTH SIDE OF AURORA NEAR
            HIGHWAY 14. SEVERAL VIDEOS OF THIS ACTIVITY
            ALSO RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0800 PM     TORNADO          5 WSW STROMSBURG        41.08N 97.67W
05/02/2021                   POLK               NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS A HORSE TRAILER
            FLIPPED ALONG HIGHWAY 66 FROM A LIKELY
            LANDSPOUT. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON SEVERAL
            REPORTS WE RECEIVED OF LANDSPOUTS VISIBLE
            FROM THE BENEDICT AND STROMSBURG AREAS.

0820 PM     FLOOD            4 SE KENESAW            40.59N 98.60W
05/02/2021                   ADAMS              NE   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF WATER OVER COUNTY ROAD WESTER OF
            JUNIATA.

0830 PM     FLOOD            5 NW STOCKTON           39.50N 99.34W
05/02/2021                   ROOKS              KS   PUBLIC

            COUNTY DISPATCH RELAYED REPORT OF OVER 4
            INCHES OF RAIN AND WATER OVER F ROAD. NO
            ESTIMATES OF DEPTH OF WATER. APPROXIMATE
            TIME.

0850 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 S SHELBY              41.15N 97.43W
05/02/2021  M3.75 INCH       POLK               NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM RAIN GAUGE MEASURED.

0901 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W LOGAN               39.66N 99.58W
05/02/2021  M68 MPH          PHILLIPS           KS   MESONET

            MESONET STATION EW3001.

0932 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 SSW STOCKTON          39.35N 99.30W
05/02/2021  M56 MPH          ROOKS              KS   MESONET

            ROOKS COUNTY AIRPORT.

0945 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE MINDEN             40.51N 98.94W
05/02/2021                   KEARNEY            NE   PUBLIC

            FACEBOOK POST OF FLOODED UNDERPASS IN
            MINDEN.

0952 PM     FLOOD            2 ENE JUNIATA           40.60N 98.46W
05/02/2021                   ADAMS              NE   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: STREET/ROAD FLOODING;
            STREET/ROAD CLOSED; VEHICLES STRANDED.

1006 PM     FLASH FLOOD      AURORA                  40.86N 98.00W
05/02/2021                   HAMILTON           NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODED STREETS IN AURORA, INCLUDING
            UNDERPASS ON HIGHWAY 14.

1015 PM     TSTM WND GST     SMITH CENTER AIRPORT    39.76N 98.79W
05/02/2021  M59 MPH          SMITH              KS   AWOS

1140 PM     HEAVY RAIN       AURORA                  40.87N 98.00W
05/02/2021  M3.57 INCH       HAMILTON           NE   MESONET

            DAILY TOTAL FROM DAVIS WEATHERLINK STATION.
            LIGHT RAIN STILL ONGOING.

&&