Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Watches in 2021
Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood watch at Jul 21, 2021, 2:38 AM MST for 5 counties in Arizona. It took effect at Jul 22, 2021, 11:00 AM MST. It was in force for 4 days.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 21, 2021, 2:38 AM MST (09:38 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jul 22, 2021, 11:00 AM MST
- Expired
- Jul 26, 2021, 12:00 AM MST
- In force
- 4 days
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Apache County, AZ, Coconino County, AZ, Gila County, AZ, Navajo County, AZ, Yavapai County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 00:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 78 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 716 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -31 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1279 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 27 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -4 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 21 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- -0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.0
The text
As transmitted.
172 WGUS65 KFGZ 210938 FFAFGZ URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 238 AM MST Wed Jul 21 2021 AZZ006>008-011>018-037-038-040-221215- /O.NEW.KFGZ.FF.A.0003.210722T1800Z-210726T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains- Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County- Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-Western Mogollon Rim- Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264- Including the cities of Seligman, Show Low, North Rim, Young, Winslow, Window Rock, Snowflake, Williams, Bagdad, Kykotsmovi, Dilkon, Sedona, Wupatki N.M., Heber, Supai, Forest Lakes, Flagstaff, Pinetop, Greer, Valle, Grand Canyon Village, Payson, Strawberry, St. Johns, Camp Verde, Prescott, Cordes Junction, Happy Jack, Ash Fork, Tuba City, Ganado, Munds Park, Cottonwood, Springerville, and Holbrook 238 AM MST Wed Jul 21 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... The National Weather Service in Flagstaff has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for central and portions of northern Arizona, including areas from the Grand Canyon to Window Rock southward. * From Thursday morning through Sunday evening. * A westward propagating wave will combine with ample monsoon moisture to produce periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from Thursday through Saturday. Areas of heavy rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding in washes, streams, and poor drainage areas. Burn scars from recent wildfires will be especially prone to flash flooding. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ MCT
11 follow-up statements
802 WGUS65 KFGZ 211029 FFAFGZ URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 329 AM MST Wed Jul 21 2021 AZZ006>008-011>018-037-038-040-221200- /O.EXT.KFGZ.FF.A.0003.210722T1800Z-210725T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains- Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County- Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-Western Mogollon Rim- Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264- Including the cities of Seligman, Show Low, North Rim, Young, Winslow, Window Rock, Snowflake, Williams, Bagdad, Kykotsmovi, Dilkon, Sedona, Wupatki N.M., Heber, Supai, Forest Lakes, Flagstaff, Pinetop, Greer, Valle, Grand Canyon Village, Payson, Strawberry, St. Johns, Camp Verde, Prescott, Cordes Junction, Happy Jack, Ash Fork, Tuba City, Ganado, Munds Park, Cottonwood, Springerville, and Holbrook 329 AM MST Wed Jul 21 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for * Central and portions of northern Arizona, including areas from the Grand Canyon to Window Rock southward. * From Thursday morning through Saturday evening. * A westward propagating wave will combine with ample monsoon moisture to produce periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from Thursday through Saturday. Areas of heavy rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding in washes, streams, and poor drainage areas. Burn scars from recent wildfires will be especially prone to flash flooding. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ MCT
635 WGUS65 KFGZ 212020 FFAFGZ Flood Watch National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 120 PM MST Wed Jul 21 2021 AZZ006>008-011>018-037-038-040-221830- /O.CON.KFGZ.FF.A.0003.210722T1800Z-210725T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains- Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County- Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-Western Mogollon Rim- Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264- Including the cities of Seligman, Show Low, North Rim, Young, Winslow, Window Rock, Snowflake, Williams, Bagdad, Kykotsmovi, Dilkon, Sedona, Wupatki N.M., Heber, Supai, Forest Lakes, Flagstaff, Pinetop, Greer, Valle, Grand Canyon Village, Payson, Strawberry, St. Johns, Camp Verde, Prescott, Cordes Junction, Happy Jack, Ash Fork, Tuba City, Ganado, Munds Park, Cottonwood, Springerville, and Holbrook 120 PM MST Wed Jul 21 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Central and portions of northern Arizona, including areas from the Grand Canyon to Window Rock southward. * From Thursday morning through Saturday evening. * A westward propagating wave will combine with ample monsoon moisture to produce periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from Thursday through Saturday. Areas of heavy rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding in washes, creeks, and poor drainage areas. Burn scars from recent wildfires will be especially prone to flash flooding. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ NL
375 WGUS65 KFGZ 221440 FFAFGZ Flood Watch National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 740 AM MST Thu Jul 22 2021 AZZ006>008-011>018-037-038-040-231445- /O.CON.KFGZ.FF.A.0003.210722T1800Z-210725T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains- Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County- Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-Western Mogollon Rim- Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264- Including the cities of Seligman, Show Low, North Rim, Young, Winslow, Window Rock, Snowflake, Williams, Bagdad, Kykotsmovi, Dilkon, Sedona, Wupatki N.M., Heber, Supai, Forest Lakes, Flagstaff, Pinetop, Greer, Valle, Grand Canyon Village, Payson, Strawberry, St. Johns, Camp Verde, Prescott, Cordes Junction, Happy Jack, Ash Fork, Tuba City, Ganado, Munds Park, Cottonwood, Springerville, and Holbrook 740 AM MST Thu Jul 22 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Central and portions of northern Arizona, including areas from the Grand Canyon to Window Rock southward. * From 11 AM MST this morning through Saturday evening. * A westward propagating wave will combine with ample monsoon moisture to produce periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Areas of heavy rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding in washes, creeks, and poor drainage areas. Burn scars from recent wildfires will be especially prone to flash flooding. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ NL
309 WGUS65 KFGZ 221820 FFAFGZ Flood Watch National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1120 AM MST Thu Jul 22 2021 AZZ006>008-011>018-037-038-040-231830- /O.CON.KFGZ.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210725T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains- Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County- Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-Western Mogollon Rim- Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264- Including the cities of Seligman, Show Low, North Rim, Young, Winslow, Window Rock, Snowflake, Williams, Bagdad, Kykotsmovi, Dilkon, Sedona, Wupatki N.M., Heber, Supai, Forest Lakes, Flagstaff, Pinetop, Greer, Valle, Grand Canyon Village, Payson, Strawberry, St. Johns, Camp Verde, Prescott, Cordes Junction, Happy Jack, Ash Fork, Tuba City, Ganado, Munds Park, Cottonwood, Springerville, and Holbrook 1120 AM MST Thu Jul 22 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Central and portions of northern Arizona, including areas from the Grand Canyon to Window Rock southward. * Through Saturday evening. * There will be periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms through Saturday evening. Areas of heavy rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding in washes, creeks, and poor drainage areas. Burn scars from recent wildfires will be especially prone to flash flooding. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ NL
229 WGUS65 KFGZ 230712 FFAFGZ Flood Watch National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1212 AM MST Fri Jul 23 2021 AZZ006>008-011>018-037-038-040-240715- /O.CON.KFGZ.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210725T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains- Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County- Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-Western Mogollon Rim- Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264- Including the cities of Seligman, Show Low, North Rim, Young, Winslow, Window Rock, Snowflake, Williams, Bagdad, Kykotsmovi, Dilkon, Sedona, Wupatki N.M., Heber, Supai, Forest Lakes, Flagstaff, Pinetop, Greer, Valle, Grand Canyon Village, Payson, Strawberry, St. Johns, Camp Verde, Prescott, Cordes Junction, Happy Jack, Ash Fork, Tuba City, Ganado, Munds Park, Cottonwood, Springerville, and Holbrook 1212 AM MST Fri Jul 23 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Central and portions of northern Arizona, including areas from the Grand Canyon to Window Rock southward. * Through Saturday evening. * Periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue at least through Saturday evening. Areas of heavy rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding in washes, creeks, and poor drainage areas. Burn scars from recent wildfires will be especially prone to flash flooding. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ NL
977 WGUS65 KFGZ 232005 FFAFGZ URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 105 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021 AZZ006>008-011>018-037-038-040-242015- /O.EXT.KFGZ.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210726T0700Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains- Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County- Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-Western Mogollon Rim- Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264- Including the cities of Seligman, Show Low, North Rim, Young, Winslow, Window Rock, Snowflake, Williams, Bagdad, Kykotsmovi, Dilkon, Sedona, Wupatki N.M., Heber, Supai, Forest Lakes, Flagstaff, Pinetop, Greer, Valle, Grand Canyon Village, Payson, Strawberry, St. Johns, Camp Verde, Prescott, Cordes Junction, Happy Jack, Ash Fork, Tuba City, Ganado, Munds Park, Cottonwood, Springerville, and Holbrook 105 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for * Much of central and northern Arizona, including areas from the Grand Canyon to Window Rock and southward. * Through Sunday evening. * Periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue through Sunday evening. Areas of heavy rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding in washes, creeks, and poor drainage areas. Burn scars from recent wildfires will be especially prone to flash flooding. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ Humphreys
640 WGUS65 KFGZ 240631 FFAFGZ Flood Watch National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1131 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021 AZZ006>008-011>018-037-038-040-250645- /O.CON.KFGZ.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210726T0700Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains- Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County- Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-Western Mogollon Rim- Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264- Including the cities of Seligman, Show Low, North Rim, Young, Winslow, Window Rock, Snowflake, Williams, Bagdad, Kykotsmovi, Dilkon, Sedona, Wupatki N.M., Heber, Supai, Forest Lakes, Flagstaff, Pinetop, Greer, Valle, Grand Canyon Village, Payson, Strawberry, St. Johns, Camp Verde, Prescott, Cordes Junction, Happy Jack, Ash Fork, Tuba City, Ganado, Munds Park, Cottonwood, Springerville, and Holbrook 1131 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Much of central and northern Arizona, including areas from the Grand Canyon to Window Rock and southward. * Through Sunday evening. * Periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue through late Sunday evening. Areas of heavy rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding in washes, creeks, and poor drainage areas. Burn scars from recent wildfires will be especially prone to flash flooding. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ NL
151 WGUS65 KFGZ 242052 FFAFGZ Flood Watch National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 152 PM MST Sat Jul 24 2021 AZZ006>008-011>018-037-038-040-260600- /O.CON.KFGZ.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210726T0700Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains- Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau- Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County- Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County- Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County- Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains- Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins- Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons- Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264- Including the cities of Grand Canyon Village, Supai, North Rim, Valle, Prescott, Seligman, Ash Fork, Window Rock, Ganado, Wupatki N.M., Tuba City, Winslow, Holbrook, Snowflake, St. Johns, Springerville, Flagstaff, Williams, Munds Park, Heber, Happy Jack, Forest Lakes, Show Low, Greer, Pinetop, Payson, Strawberry, Young, Cottonwood, Camp Verde, Cordes Junction, Bagdad, Sedona, Dilkon, and Kykotsmovi 152 PM MST Sat Jul 24 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Much of central and northern Arizona, including areas from the Grand Canyon to Window Rock and southward. * Through Sunday evening * Periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue through late Sunday evening. Areas of heavy rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding in washes, creeks, and poor drainage areas. Burn scars from recent wildfires will be especially prone to flash flooding. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$
368 WGUS65 KFGZ 250812 FFAFGZ Flood Watch National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 112 AM MST Sun Jul 25 2021 AZZ006>008-011>018-037-038-040-260700- /O.CON.KFGZ.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210726T0700Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains- Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County- Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-Western Mogollon Rim- Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264- Including the cities of Seligman, Show Low, North Rim, Young, Winslow, Window Rock, Snowflake, Williams, Bagdad, Kykotsmovi, Dilkon, Sedona, Wupatki N.M., Heber, Supai, Forest Lakes, Flagstaff, Pinetop, Greer, Valle, Grand Canyon Village, Payson, Strawberry, St. Johns, Camp Verde, Prescott, Cordes Junction, Happy Jack, Ash Fork, Tuba City, Ganado, Munds Park, Cottonwood, Springerville, and Holbrook 112 AM MST Sun Jul 25 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Much of central and northern Arizona, including areas from the Grand Canyon to Window Rock and southward. * Through this evening. * Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through late this evening. Areas of heavy rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding in washes, creeks, and poor drainage areas. Burn scars from recent wildfires will be especially prone to flash flooding. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ NL
360 WGUS65 KFGZ 252141 FFAFGZ Flood Watch National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 241 PM MST Sun Jul 25 2021 AZZ006>008-011>018-037-038-040-260700- /O.CON.KFGZ.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210726T0700Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains- Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau- Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County- Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County- Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County- Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains- Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins- Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons- Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264- Including the cities of Grand Canyon Village, Supai, North Rim, Valle, Prescott, Seligman, Ash Fork, Window Rock, Ganado, Wupatki N.M., Tuba City, Winslow, Holbrook, Snowflake, St. Johns, Springerville, Flagstaff, Williams, Munds Park, Heber, Happy Jack, Forest Lakes, Show Low, Greer, Pinetop, Payson, Strawberry, Young, Cottonwood, Camp Verde, Cordes Junction, Bagdad, Sedona, Dilkon, and Kykotsmovi 241 PM MST Sun Jul 25 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Much of central and northern Arizona, including areas from the Grand Canyon to Window Rock and southward. * Until midnight MST tonight * Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through late this evening. Areas of heavy rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding in washes, creeks, and poor drainage areas. Burn scars from recent wildfires will be especially prone to flash flooding. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$
436 WGUS65 KFGZ 260654 FFAFGZ Flood Watch National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1154 PM MST Sun Jul 25 2021 AZZ006>008-011>018-037-038-040-260800- /O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210726T0700Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains- Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County- Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-Western Mogollon Rim- Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264- Including the cities of Seligman, Show Low, North Rim, Young, Winslow, Window Rock, Snowflake, Williams, Bagdad, Kykotsmovi, Dilkon, Sedona, Wupatki N.M., Heber, Supai, Forest Lakes, Flagstaff, Pinetop, Greer, Valle, Grand Canyon Village, Payson, Strawberry, St. Johns, Camp Verde, Prescott, Cordes Junction, Happy Jack, Ash Fork, Tuba City, Ganado, Munds Park, Cottonwood, Springerville, and Holbrook 1154 PM MST Sun Jul 25 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT... The Flash Flood Watch for portions of east central Arizona, north central Arizona, northeast Arizona and west central Arizona, including the following areas, in east central Arizona, Northern Gila County. In north central Arizona, Coconino Plateau, Eastern Mogollon Rim, Grand Canyon Country and Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County. In northeast Arizona, Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau, Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County, Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County, Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264 and White Mountains. In west central Arizona, Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons, Western Mogollon Rim, Yavapai County Mountains and Yavapai County Valleys and Basins will expire at Midnight MST tonight. The Flash Flood Watch is cancelled. Flash flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please heed road closures and don't drive across water on roads. $$ McCollum
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Jul 20, 9:20 PM MST, 5 hours 18 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 20, 9:20 PM MST, 5 hours 18 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 920 PM MST Tue Jul 20 2021 .SYNOPSIS...Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is forecast to develop for Wednesday afternoon. Localized flash flooding is likely with the stronger storms. Thunderstorm activity becomes widespread across northern Arizona for Thursday into the weekend with higher chances for flash flooding. Temperatures are expected to remain average turning cooler by Friday and into the weekend. && .UPDATE...Storm activity continues this evening for portions of southern Navajo and Apache counties. Heavy rain with possible flash flooding is taking place, as of writing this, near the Snowflake and Taylor area. The heavy rainfall and thunderstorms could persist for the next hour or so for these locations, possibly extending into northern Gila County according to the recent runs of the HRRR, HREF, and SREF. Activity looks to taper by midnight. Same story expected for Wednesday with storms developing along the higher terrain around 11 am MST with increasing coverage across the region through the evening hours. Storm motions expected to be on the slower side, 5-10 mph, propagating from the east-southeast headed towards the west-northwest. Heavy rain resulting in localized flash flooding will remain the main threat with rain rates around the 1-2 inch per hour rate. Coverage looks to increase for Thursday into the weekend as a result from a surge of monsoonal moisture due to the southwest flow of the Four Corners high interacting with an upper-level low pressure system from the southeast. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely for Thursday across northern Arizona, however confidence is medium at this time for the threat to continue for Friday into the weekend. The majority of the model guidance points towards this solution, but the chance to cloud over resulting in less diurnal heating and overall convection is possible. && .PREV DISCUSSION /253 PM MST/...The current weather is dominated by a Four Corners high giving us a strong monsoonal flow. Deep moisture over the region will continue through the weekend. Models indicate a mid-level low moving west across the southeastern states into Texas Thursday. This low will continue sliding west under the high and into Arizona Friday into the weekend. The latest model runs have slowed the motion of the low by about 24 hours pushing the heavier rain to Friday into the weekend. Confidence is moderate to high for heavy rainfall towards the end of the week, but confidence is low for the timing of the heavy rain due to the weak flow across the southern states introducing high variance in the arrival of the low. Stay tuned through the rest of the week for updates on this system. For the foreseeable future, expect showers and thunderstorm each afternoon with locally heavy rain with possible flash flooding. If you plan to be out in the forests and canyons, be aware of your surroundings and alert to the possibility of flash floods. Check out your forecast at weather.gov/fgz before you go. && .AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Besides for ongoing thunderstorms and heavy rainfall near southern Navajo and Apache counties, expect mainly VFR conditions overnight. Another round of showers and thunderstorms develops Wednesday afternoon. Mainly VFR, however MVFR conditions possible in stronger storms. Sfc winds outside of storms generally light. Shower and thunderstorm chances gradually diminish by Wednesday evening. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. Some storms will produce locally heavy rainfall amounts. Expect light winds and near normal high temperatures outside of any storms. Friday through Sunday...Expect an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms during this period. Widespread wetting rains and locally heavy showers are likely, with activity persisting overnight. Flash flooding is the major threat through this period. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...LaGuardia/DB AVIATION...LaGuardia FIRE WEATHER...DB For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jul 20, 9:39 PM MST, 4 hours 59 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
939 PM MST TUE JUL 20 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0936 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SE SNOWFLAKE 34.51N 110.07W
07/20/2021 M1.97 INCH NAVAJO AZ MESONET
NAVAJO COUNTY RAIN GAUGE MEASURED 1.97
INCHES OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE LAST HOUR.
&&
ELLocal storm report, Jul 20, 9:44 PM MST, 4 hours 54 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
944 PM MST TUE JUL 20 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0930 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 S SNOWFLAKE 34.51N 110.08W
07/20/2021 NAVAJO AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT
THE SNOWFLAKE-TAYLOR POLICE DEPT. REPORTED
FLASH FLOODING THAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN
SNOWFLAKE, AZ WITH 6 INCHES OF WATER OVER
THE ROADWAYS AND HOUSES THREATENED IN THE W
1ST STREET AREA.
&&
ELThe office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 6:16 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | 29 min | |
| Jul 20, 7:32 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Navajo | 28 min |
| Jul 20, 7:55 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Navajo | 2 hr |
| Jul 20, 8:33 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Navajo | 117 min |
| Jul 21, 12:17 AM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Gila | 118 min |
| Jul 21, 10:19 AM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | Yavapai | 26 min |
| Jul 21, 10:48 AM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 2 hr |
| Jul 21, 12:03 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | Yavapai | 42 min |
| Jul 21, 12:13 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 56 min |
| Jul 21, 12:20 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 114 min |
| Jul 21, 12:35 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | 40 min | |
| Jul 21, 12:47 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 118 min |
| Jul 21, 12:54 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | 36 min | |
| Jul 21, 1:06 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 92 min |
| Jul 21, 1:24 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 110 min |
| Jul 21, 1:27 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 74 min |
| Jul 21, 1:57 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | Yavapai | 48 min |
| Jul 21, 2:01 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Yavapai | 119 min |
| Jul 21, 2:05 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 2 hr |
| Jul 21, 2:22 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Coconino | 3 hr |
| Jul 21, 2:30 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | 45 min | |
| Jul 21, 2:36 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 54 min |
| Jul 21, 2:53 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 82 min |
| Jul 21, 2:57 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 60 min |
| Jul 21, 2:59 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 60 min |
| Jul 21, 3:21 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 26 min |
| Jul 21, 3:34 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 98 min |
| Jul 21, 3:49 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 3 hr |
| Jul 21, 4:35 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 115 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Watches in Arizona, 2021Every flash flood watch in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.