Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Watches in 2021

Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 21, 20215 counties in Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood watch at Jul 21, 2021, 2:38 AM MST for 5 counties in Arizona. It took effect at Jul 22, 2021, 11:00 AM MST. It was in force for 4 days.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 21, 2021, 2:38 AM MST (09:38 UTC)
In effect from
Jul 22, 2021, 11:00 AM MST
Expired
Jul 26, 2021, 12:00 AM MST
In force
4 days
Issued by
NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Flood severity
None

Counties Apache County, AZ, Coconino County, AZ, Gila County, AZ, Navajo County, AZ, Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 00:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 78 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 00:00Z on 2021-07-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 716 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 00:00Z on 2021-07-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -4 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
716 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-31 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1279 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-4 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
21 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
-0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

172 
WGUS65 KFGZ 210938
FFAFGZ

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
238 AM MST Wed Jul 21 2021

AZZ006>008-011>018-037-038-040-221215-
/O.NEW.KFGZ.FF.A.0003.210722T1800Z-210726T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-Little Colorado River Valley
in Coconino County-Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-Western Mogollon Rim-
Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-Northern Gila County-Yavapai
County Valleys and Basins-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Northeast
Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Seligman, Show Low, North Rim, Young, 
Winslow, Window Rock, Snowflake, Williams, Bagdad, Kykotsmovi, 
Dilkon, Sedona, Wupatki N.M., Heber, Supai, Forest Lakes, Flagstaff, 
Pinetop, Greer, Valle, Grand Canyon Village, Payson, Strawberry, St. 
Johns, Camp Verde, Prescott, Cordes Junction, Happy Jack, Ash Fork, 
Tuba City, Ganado, Munds Park, Cottonwood, Springerville, and 
Holbrook
238 AM MST Wed Jul 21 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY 
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Flagstaff has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for central and portions of northern Arizona, 
  including areas from the Grand Canyon to Window Rock southward.

* From Thursday morning through Sunday evening.

* A westward propagating wave will combine with ample monsoon 
  moisture to produce periods of widespread showers and 
  thunderstorms from Thursday through Saturday. Areas of heavy 
  rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding in washes, streams, 
  and poor drainage areas. Burn scars from recent wildfires will be 
  especially prone to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

MCT
11 follow-up statements
802 
WGUS65 KFGZ 211029
FFAFGZ

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
329 AM MST Wed Jul 21 2021

AZZ006>008-011>018-037-038-040-221200-
/O.EXT.KFGZ.FF.A.0003.210722T1800Z-210725T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-Little Colorado River Valley
in Coconino County-Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-Western Mogollon Rim-
Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-Northern Gila County-Yavapai
County Valleys and Basins-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Northeast
Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Seligman, Show Low, North Rim, Young, 
Winslow, Window Rock, Snowflake, Williams, Bagdad, Kykotsmovi, 
Dilkon, Sedona, Wupatki N.M., Heber, Supai, Forest Lakes, Flagstaff, 
Pinetop, Greer, Valle, Grand Canyon Village, Payson, Strawberry, St. 
Johns, Camp Verde, Prescott, Cordes Junction, Happy Jack, Ash Fork, 
Tuba City, Ganado, Munds Park, Cottonwood, Springerville, and 
Holbrook
329 AM MST Wed Jul 21 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 
SATURDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* Central and portions of northern Arizona, 
  including areas from the Grand Canyon to Window Rock southward.

* From Thursday morning through Saturday evening.

* A westward propagating wave will combine with ample monsoon 
  moisture to produce periods of widespread showers and 
  thunderstorms from Thursday through Saturday. Areas of heavy 
  rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding in washes, streams, 
  and poor drainage areas. Burn scars from recent wildfires will be 
  especially prone to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

MCT
635 
WGUS65 KFGZ 212020
FFAFGZ

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
120 PM MST Wed Jul 21 2021

AZZ006>008-011>018-037-038-040-221830-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.A.0003.210722T1800Z-210725T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-Little Colorado River Valley
in Coconino County-Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-Western Mogollon Rim-
Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-Northern Gila County-Yavapai
County Valleys and Basins-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Northeast
Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Seligman, Show Low, North Rim, Young, 
Winslow, Window Rock, Snowflake, Williams, Bagdad, Kykotsmovi, 
Dilkon, Sedona, Wupatki N.M., Heber, Supai, Forest Lakes, Flagstaff, 
Pinetop, Greer, Valle, Grand Canyon Village, Payson, Strawberry, St. 
Johns, Camp Verde, Prescott, Cordes Junction, Happy Jack, Ash Fork, 
Tuba City, Ganado, Munds Park, Cottonwood, Springerville, and 
Holbrook
120 PM MST Wed Jul 21 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY LATE MORNING 
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Central and portions of northern Arizona, including areas from the 
  Grand Canyon to Window Rock southward.

* From Thursday morning through Saturday evening.

* A westward propagating wave will combine with ample monsoon 
  moisture to produce periods of widespread showers and 
  thunderstorms from Thursday through Saturday. Areas of heavy 
  rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding in washes, creeks, 
  and poor drainage areas. Burn scars from recent wildfires will be 
  especially prone to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NL
375 
WGUS65 KFGZ 221440
FFAFGZ

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
740 AM MST Thu Jul 22 2021

AZZ006>008-011>018-037-038-040-231445-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.A.0003.210722T1800Z-210725T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-Little Colorado River Valley
in Coconino County-Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-Western Mogollon Rim-
Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-Northern Gila County-Yavapai
County Valleys and Basins-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Northeast
Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Seligman, Show Low, North Rim, Young, 
Winslow, Window Rock, Snowflake, Williams, Bagdad, Kykotsmovi, 
Dilkon, Sedona, Wupatki N.M., Heber, Supai, Forest Lakes, Flagstaff, 
Pinetop, Greer, Valle, Grand Canyon Village, Payson, Strawberry, St. 
Johns, Camp Verde, Prescott, Cordes Junction, Happy Jack, Ash Fork, 
Tuba City, Ganado, Munds Park, Cottonwood, Springerville, and 
Holbrook
740 AM MST Thu Jul 22 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MST TODAY THROUGH 
SATURDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Central and portions of northern Arizona, including areas from the 
  Grand Canyon to Window Rock southward.

* From 11 AM MST this morning through Saturday evening.

* A westward propagating wave will combine with ample monsoon 
  moisture to produce periods of widespread showers and 
  thunderstorms through Saturday. Areas of heavy rainfall will 
  likely lead to flash flooding in washes, creeks, and poor drainage 
  areas. Burn scars from recent wildfires will be especially prone 
  to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NL
309 
WGUS65 KFGZ 221820
FFAFGZ

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1120 AM MST Thu Jul 22 2021

AZZ006>008-011>018-037-038-040-231830-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210725T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-Little Colorado River Valley
in Coconino County-Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-Western Mogollon Rim-
Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-Northern Gila County-Yavapai
County Valleys and Basins-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Northeast
Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Seligman, Show Low, North Rim, Young, 
Winslow, Window Rock, Snowflake, Williams, Bagdad, Kykotsmovi, 
Dilkon, Sedona, Wupatki N.M., Heber, Supai, Forest Lakes, Flagstaff, 
Pinetop, Greer, Valle, Grand Canyon Village, Payson, Strawberry, St. 
Johns, Camp Verde, Prescott, Cordes Junction, Happy Jack, Ash Fork, 
Tuba City, Ganado, Munds Park, Cottonwood, Springerville, and 
Holbrook
1120 AM MST Thu Jul 22 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Central and portions of northern Arizona, including areas from the 
  Grand Canyon to Window Rock southward.

* Through Saturday evening.

* There will be periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms 
  through Saturday evening. Areas of heavy rainfall will likely lead 
  to flash flooding in washes, creeks, and poor drainage areas. Burn 
  scars from recent wildfires will be especially prone to flash 
  flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NL
229 
WGUS65 KFGZ 230712
FFAFGZ

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1212 AM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

AZZ006>008-011>018-037-038-040-240715-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210725T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-Little Colorado River Valley
in Coconino County-Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-Western Mogollon Rim-
Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-Northern Gila County-Yavapai
County Valleys and Basins-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Northeast
Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Seligman, Show Low, North Rim, Young, 
Winslow, Window Rock, Snowflake, Williams, Bagdad, Kykotsmovi, 
Dilkon, Sedona, Wupatki N.M., Heber, Supai, Forest Lakes, Flagstaff, 
Pinetop, Greer, Valle, Grand Canyon Village, Payson, Strawberry, St. 
Johns, Camp Verde, Prescott, Cordes Junction, Happy Jack, Ash Fork, 
Tuba City, Ganado, Munds Park, Cottonwood, Springerville, and 
Holbrook
1212 AM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Central and portions of northern Arizona, including areas from the 
  Grand Canyon to Window Rock southward.

* Through Saturday evening.

* Periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue at 
  least through Saturday evening. Areas of heavy rainfall will 
  likely lead to flash flooding in washes, creeks, and poor drainage 
  areas. Burn scars from recent wildfires will be especially prone 
  to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NL
977 
WGUS65 KFGZ 232005
FFAFGZ

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
105 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

AZZ006>008-011>018-037-038-040-242015-
/O.EXT.KFGZ.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210726T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-Little Colorado River Valley
in Coconino County-Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-Western Mogollon Rim-
Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-Northern Gila County-Yavapai
County Valleys and Basins-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Northeast
Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Seligman, Show Low, North Rim, Young, 
Winslow, Window Rock, Snowflake, Williams, Bagdad, Kykotsmovi, 
Dilkon, Sedona, Wupatki N.M., Heber, Supai, Forest Lakes, Flagstaff, 
Pinetop, Greer, Valle, Grand Canyon Village, Payson, Strawberry, St. 
Johns, Camp Verde, Prescott, Cordes Junction, Happy Jack, Ash Fork, 
Tuba City, Ganado, Munds Park, Cottonwood, Springerville, and 
Holbrook
105 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* Much of central and northern Arizona, including areas from the 
  Grand Canyon to Window Rock and southward.

* Through Sunday evening.

* Periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue 
  through Sunday evening. Areas of heavy rainfall will likely lead 
  to flash flooding in washes, creeks, and poor drainage areas. Burn 
  scars from recent wildfires will be especially prone to flash 
  flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Humphreys
640 
WGUS65 KFGZ 240631
FFAFGZ

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1131 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

AZZ006>008-011>018-037-038-040-250645-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210726T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-Little Colorado River Valley
in Coconino County-Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-Western Mogollon Rim-
Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-Northern Gila County-Yavapai
County Valleys and Basins-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Northeast
Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Seligman, Show Low, North Rim, Young, 
Winslow, Window Rock, Snowflake, Williams, Bagdad, Kykotsmovi, 
Dilkon, Sedona, Wupatki N.M., Heber, Supai, Forest Lakes, Flagstaff, 
Pinetop, Greer, Valle, Grand Canyon Village, Payson, Strawberry, St. 
Johns, Camp Verde, Prescott, Cordes Junction, Happy Jack, Ash Fork, 
Tuba City, Ganado, Munds Park, Cottonwood, Springerville, and 
Holbrook
1131 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Much of central and northern Arizona, including areas from the 
  Grand Canyon to Window Rock and southward.

* Through Sunday evening.

* Periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue 
  through late Sunday evening. Areas of heavy rainfall will likely 
  lead to flash flooding in washes, creeks, and poor drainage areas. 
  Burn scars from recent wildfires will be especially prone to flash 
  flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NL
151 
WGUS65 KFGZ 242052
FFAFGZ

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
152 PM MST Sat Jul 24 2021


AZZ006>008-011>018-037-038-040-260600-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210726T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-
Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Grand Canyon Village, Supai, North Rim, 
Valle, Prescott, Seligman, Ash Fork, Window Rock, Ganado, 
Wupatki N.M., Tuba City, Winslow, Holbrook, Snowflake, St. Johns,
Springerville, Flagstaff, Williams, Munds Park, Heber, 
Happy Jack, Forest Lakes, Show Low, Greer, Pinetop, Payson, 
Strawberry, Young, Cottonwood, Camp Verde, Cordes Junction, 
Bagdad, Sedona, Dilkon, and Kykotsmovi
152 PM MST Sat Jul 24 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Much of central and northern Arizona, including areas from the
  Grand Canyon to Window Rock and southward. 

* Through Sunday evening

* Periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue 
  through late Sunday evening. Areas of heavy rainfall will 
  likely lead to flash flooding in washes, creeks, and poor 
  drainage areas. Burn scars from recent wildfires will be 
  especially prone to flash flooding. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
368 
WGUS65 KFGZ 250812
FFAFGZ

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
112 AM MST Sun Jul 25 2021

AZZ006>008-011>018-037-038-040-260700-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210726T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-Little Colorado River Valley
in Coconino County-Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-Western Mogollon Rim-
Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-Northern Gila County-Yavapai
County Valleys and Basins-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Northeast
Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Seligman, Show Low, North Rim, Young, 
Winslow, Window Rock, Snowflake, Williams, Bagdad, Kykotsmovi, 
Dilkon, Sedona, Wupatki N.M., Heber, Supai, Forest Lakes, Flagstaff, 
Pinetop, Greer, Valle, Grand Canyon Village, Payson, Strawberry, St. 
Johns, Camp Verde, Prescott, Cordes Junction, Happy Jack, Ash Fork, 
Tuba City, Ganado, Munds Park, Cottonwood, Springerville, and 
Holbrook
112 AM MST Sun Jul 25 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Much of central and northern Arizona, including areas from the 
  Grand Canyon to Window Rock and southward.

* Through this evening.

* Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through late 
  this evening. Areas of heavy rainfall will likely lead to flash 
  flooding in washes, creeks, and poor drainage areas. Burn scars 
  from recent wildfires will be especially prone to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NL
360 
WGUS65 KFGZ 252141
FFAFGZ

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
241 PM MST Sun Jul 25 2021

AZZ006>008-011>018-037-038-040-260700-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210726T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-
Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Grand Canyon Village, Supai, North Rim, 
Valle, Prescott, Seligman, Ash Fork, Window Rock, Ganado, 
Wupatki N.M., Tuba City, Winslow, Holbrook, Snowflake, St. Johns,
Springerville, Flagstaff, Williams, Munds Park, Heber, 
Happy Jack, Forest Lakes, Show Low, Greer, Pinetop, Payson, 
Strawberry, Young, Cottonwood, Camp Verde, Cordes Junction, 
Bagdad, Sedona, Dilkon, and Kykotsmovi
241 PM MST Sun Jul 25 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST
TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Much of central and northern Arizona, including areas from the
  Grand Canyon to Window Rock and southward. 

* Until midnight MST tonight

* Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through 
  late this evening. Areas of heavy rainfall will likely lead to 
  flash flooding in washes, creeks, and poor drainage areas. 
  Burn scars from recent wildfires will be especially prone to 
  flash flooding. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
436 
WGUS65 KFGZ 260654
FFAFGZ

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1154 PM MST Sun Jul 25 2021

AZZ006>008-011>018-037-038-040-260800-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210726T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-Little Colorado River Valley
in Coconino County-Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-Western Mogollon Rim-
Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-Northern Gila County-Yavapai
County Valleys and Basins-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Northeast
Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Seligman, Show Low, North Rim, Young, 
Winslow, Window Rock, Snowflake, Williams, Bagdad, Kykotsmovi, 
Dilkon, Sedona, Wupatki N.M., Heber, Supai, Forest Lakes, Flagstaff, 
Pinetop, Greer, Valle, Grand Canyon Village, Payson, Strawberry, St. 
Johns, Camp Verde, Prescott, Cordes Junction, Happy Jack, Ash Fork, 
Tuba City, Ganado, Munds Park, Cottonwood, Springerville, and 
Holbrook
1154 PM MST Sun Jul 25 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of east central Arizona, north 
central Arizona, northeast Arizona and west central Arizona, 
including the following areas, in east central Arizona, Northern 
Gila County. In north central Arizona, Coconino Plateau, Eastern 
Mogollon Rim, Grand Canyon Country and Little Colorado River Valley 
in Coconino County. In northeast Arizona, Chuska Mountains and 
Defiance Plateau, Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County, 
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County, Northeast Plateaus 
and Mesas South of Hwy 264 and White Mountains. In west central 
Arizona, Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons, Western Mogollon Rim, 
Yavapai County Mountains and Yavapai County Valleys and Basins will 
expire at Midnight MST tonight.

The Flash Flood Watch is cancelled. Flash flooding is no longer 
expected to pose a threat. Please heed road closures and don't drive 
across water on roads.

$$

McCollum

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Jul 20, 9:20 PM MST, 5 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 20, 9:20 PM MST, 5 hours 18 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
920 PM MST Tue Jul 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms
is forecast to develop for Wednesday afternoon. Localized flash
flooding is likely with the stronger storms. Thunderstorm activity
becomes widespread across northern Arizona for Thursday into the
weekend with higher chances for flash flooding. Temperatures are
expected to remain average turning cooler by Friday and into the
weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...Storm activity continues this evening for portions of
southern Navajo and Apache counties. Heavy rain with possible
flash flooding is taking place, as of writing this, near the
Snowflake and Taylor area. The heavy rainfall and thunderstorms
could persist for the next hour or so for these locations,
possibly extending into northern Gila County according to the
recent runs of the HRRR, HREF, and SREF. Activity looks to taper
by midnight.

Same story expected for Wednesday with storms developing along the
higher terrain around 11 am MST with increasing coverage across
the region through the evening hours. Storm motions expected to be
on the slower side, 5-10 mph, propagating from the east-southeast
headed towards the west-northwest. Heavy rain resulting in
localized flash flooding will remain the main threat with rain
rates around the 1-2 inch per hour rate.

Coverage looks to increase for Thursday into the weekend as a
result from a surge of monsoonal moisture due to the southwest
flow of the Four Corners high interacting with an upper-level low
pressure system from the southeast. Heavy rainfall and flash
flooding are likely for Thursday across northern Arizona, however
confidence is medium at this time for the threat to continue for
Friday into the weekend. The majority of the model guidance
points towards this solution, but the chance to cloud over
resulting in less diurnal heating and overall convection is
possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /253 PM MST/...The current weather is dominated
by a Four Corners high giving us a strong monsoonal flow. Deep
moisture over the region will continue through the weekend. Models
indicate a mid-level low moving west across the southeastern
states into Texas Thursday. This low will continue sliding west
under the high and into Arizona Friday into the weekend. The
latest model runs have slowed the motion of the low by about 24
hours pushing the heavier rain to Friday into the weekend.
Confidence is moderate to high for heavy rainfall towards the end
of the week, but confidence is low for the timing of the heavy
rain due to the weak flow across the southern states introducing
high variance in the arrival of the low. Stay tuned through the
rest of the week for updates on this system.

For the foreseeable future, expect showers and thunderstorm each
afternoon with locally heavy rain with possible flash flooding. If
you plan to be out in the forests and canyons, be aware of your
surroundings and alert to the possibility of flash floods. Check
out your forecast at weather.gov/fgz before you go.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Besides for ongoing thunderstorms
and heavy rainfall near southern Navajo and Apache counties, expect
mainly VFR conditions overnight. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms develops Wednesday afternoon. Mainly VFR, however
MVFR conditions possible in stronger storms. Sfc winds outside of
storms generally light. Shower and thunderstorm chances gradually
diminish by Wednesday evening. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms are expected each day. Some storms will produce
locally heavy rainfall amounts. Expect light winds and near normal
high temperatures outside of any storms.

Friday through Sunday...Expect an increased chance of showers and
thunderstorms during this period. Widespread wetting rains and
locally heavy showers are likely, with activity persisting
overnight. Flash flooding is the major threat through this period.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...LaGuardia/DB
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...DB

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 20, 9:39 PM MST, 4 hours 59 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
939 PM MST TUE JUL 20 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0936 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE SNOWFLAKE          34.51N 110.07W
07/20/2021  M1.97 INCH       NAVAJO             AZ   MESONET

            NAVAJO COUNTY RAIN GAUGE MEASURED 1.97
            INCHES OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE LAST HOUR.

&&

EL
Local storm report, Jul 20, 9:44 PM MST, 4 hours 54 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
944 PM MST TUE JUL 20 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S SNOWFLAKE           34.51N 110.08W
07/20/2021                   NAVAJO             AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THE SNOWFLAKE-TAYLOR POLICE DEPT. REPORTED
            FLASH FLOODING THAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN
            SNOWFLAKE, AZ WITH 6 INCHES OF WATER OVER
            THE ROADWAYS AND HOUSES THREATENED IN THE W
            1ST STREET AREA.

&&

EL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 20, 6:16 PM MSTSpecial Weather StatementFGZ29 min
Jul 20, 7:32 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZNavajo28 min
Jul 20, 7:55 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatFGZNavajo2 hr
Jul 20, 8:33 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatFGZNavajo117 min
Jul 21, 12:17 AM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatFGZGila118 min
Jul 21, 10:19 AM MSTSpecial Weather StatementFGZYavapai26 min
Jul 21, 10:48 AM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatFGZYavapai2 hr
Jul 21, 12:03 PM MSTSpecial Weather StatementFGZYavapai42 min
Jul 21, 12:13 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatFGZYavapai56 min
Jul 21, 12:20 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatFGZYavapai114 min
Jul 21, 12:35 PM MSTSpecial Weather StatementFGZ40 min
Jul 21, 12:47 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatFGZCoconino118 min
Jul 21, 12:54 PM MSTSpecial Weather StatementFGZ36 min
Jul 21, 1:06 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatFGZCoconino92 min
Jul 21, 1:24 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatFGZCoconino110 min
Jul 21, 1:27 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatFGZYavapai74 min
Jul 21, 1:57 PM MSTSpecial Weather StatementFGZYavapai48 min
Jul 21, 2:01 PM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryFGZYavapai119 min
Jul 21, 2:05 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatFGZCoconino2 hr
Jul 21, 2:22 PM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryFGZCoconino3 hr
Jul 21, 2:30 PM MSTSpecial Weather StatementFGZ45 min
Jul 21, 2:36 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatFGZYavapai54 min
Jul 21, 2:53 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatFGZCoconino82 min
Jul 21, 2:57 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatFGZYavapai60 min
Jul 21, 2:59 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatFGZYavapai60 min
Jul 21, 3:21 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino26 min
Jul 21, 3:34 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatFGZCoconino98 min
Jul 21, 3:49 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatFGZYavapai3 hr
Jul 21, 4:35 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatFGZCoconino115 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in Arizona, 2021Every flash flood watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.