Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

682 
WWUS55 KFGZ 210252
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
752 PM MST Tue Jul 20 2021

AZC017-210301-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0062.000000T0000Z-210721T0300Z/
Navajo-
752 PM MST Tue Jul 20 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NAVAJO COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
800 PM MST...
                
The storm which prompted the warning near Dry Lake in Navajo County 
has weakened below severe limits. Therefore, the warning will be 
allowed to expire.  However very heavy rain continues to fall and a 
Flash Flood Warning will be issued for the area. 

LAT...LON 3455 11050 3469 11045 3468 11017 3453 11026
TIME...MOT...LOC 0251Z 295DEG 5KT 3459 11032 

$$

TPS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
253 PM MST Tue Jul 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
develop each afternoon this week. Localized flash flooding is
likely with the stronger storms. Temperatures are expected to
remain around normal to slightly below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The current weather is dominated by a Four Corners
high giving us a strong monsoonal flow. Deep moisture over the
region will continue through the weekend. Models indicate a
mid-level low moving west across the southeastern states into
Texas Thursday. This low will continue sliding west under the high
and into Arizona Friday into the weekend. The latest model runs
have slowed the motion of the low by about 24 hours pushing the
heavier rain to Friday into the weekend. Confidence is moderate to
high for heavy rainfall towards the end of the week, but
confidence is low for the timing of the heavy rain due to the weak
flow across the southern states introducing high variance in the
arrival of the low. Stay tuned through the rest of the week for
updates on this system.

For the foreseeable future, expect showers and thunderstorm each
afternoon with locally heavy rain with possible flash flooding. If
you plan to be out in the forests and canyons, be aware of your
surroundings and alert to the possibility of flash floods. Check
out your forecast at weather.gov/fgz before you go.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect mainly VFR conditions for
the next 24 hours with generally light surface winds outside of
showers and thunderstorms. The current thunderstorms across the
region will diminish through the evening hours with a few showers
lingering past midnight. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will reform over the higher terrain after 17Z and
continue through the afternoon. MVFR conditions possible in stronger
storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms are expected each day. Some storms will produce
locally heavy rainfall amounts. Expect light winds and near normal
high temperatures outside of any storms.

Friday through Sunday...Expect an increased chance of showers and
thunderstorms during this period. Widespread wetting rains and
locally heavy showers are likely, with activity persisting
overnight. Flash flooding is the major threat through this period.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION...DB
FIRE WEATHER...DB

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
457 PM MST Tue Jul 20 2021

AZZ004-006-007-210045-
Kaibab Plateau-Coconino Plateau-Grand Canyon Country-
457 PM MST Tue Jul 20 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GRAND CANYON, WEST OF
BRIGHT ANGEL POINT, UNTIL 545 PM MST...

At 455 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Pima Point At Grand Canyon, or 28 miles northwest
of Desert View at Grand Canyon, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
North Rim Entrance Station and Demotte Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle, especially if hiking or
rafting.

&&

LAT...LON 3608 11227 3612 11239 3619 11247 3648 11223
      3630 11198
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 219DEG 12KT 3621 11229

EL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
616 PM MST Tue Jul 20 2021

AZZ014-210145-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
616 PM MST Tue Jul 20 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM EAST OF ST JOHNS UNTIL 645 PM MST...

At 615 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles east of St. Johns, or 30 miles north of Springerville, moving
south at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of Apache County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3445 10937 3467 10924 3461 10904 3436 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 016DEG 8KT 3456 10914

TPS