Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
214 AM MST Sun Jul 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms continue through tonight as
the threats of flash flooding and strong storms persist. A more
normal pattern of isolated to scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms returns through the rest of the week. Cool daytime
temperatures will warm to near normal by the middle of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms persist in
central Arizona early this morning as an upper low has moved into
south-central Arizona. Storm motion in eastern Arizona will favor
a more northward direction, while western Arizona is a southward
steering flow through sunrise. Light to moderate rainfall is
being observed from these isolated showers and thunderstorms.

The upper low will shift westward over southern Arizona through
the daylight and evening hours today. The result will be continued
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over northern
Arizona beginning later this morning. The trough axis is helping
to favor areas west of a line from the Grand Canyon to Flagstaff
to the White Mountains for the heaviest and most widespread
coverage of rainfall this afternoon. Rainfall rates by this
afternoon under the strongest thunderstorms could again be 1-2"
per hour. A more isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage in
the Little Colorado River valley and north to the Navajo Nation
will still see a threat for flash flooding as soils have become
very saturated from the last 60 hours of widespread heavy rainfall.
To say nothing more, the threat of flash flooding will continue
through today and the Flash Flood Watch remains in effect into
late this evening for much of central and northern Arizona.

As the upper low finally moves into far southern California by
tonight, the greatest area of forcing to sustain overnight showers
will also exit the forecast area. Overnight shower activity is
only expected in western Coconino and Yavapai counties late tonight.

Northern Arizona is expected to return to a more typical monsoonal
pattern beginning Monday. This means storm initiation in the late
morning and early afternoon increases into the afternoon then
gradually decreases each evening. Residual moisture will trigger
scattered coverage on Monday with more isolated to scattered
thunderstorm coverage then expected into mid-week. The very high
rainfall rates that have been observed this weekend are much less
likely on Monday as a less moist airmass sets up over the area.
This will translate into a decreased, but still present, threat
of flash flooding. Beyond the scattered thunderstorms this week,
temperatures will warm to near-normal by mid-week.

Current progs are indicating a potential increase in monsoonal
moisture resulting in an uptick in thunderstorm coverage again by
later this week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Scattered showers continue south
of a line from KPRC to KSOW. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop again after 18Z Sun. Areas of MVFR/IFR
will be possible within the heaviest downpours. Gusty and erratic
winds possible near thunderstorms, with winds remaining light
otherwise. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue through tonight with a threat of flash flooding. Storm
chances decrease from east to west Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...A more typical monsoonal pattern returns
with afternoon thunderstorms diminishing through the evening each
day. Daytime temperatures will warm to near-normal by mid-week.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Flash Flood Watch through this
evening FOR AZZ006>008-011>018-037-038-040.

&&

PUBLIC...NL
AVIATION...ET
FIRE WEATHER...NL

For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 AM MST SUN JUL 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 NE TONALEA            36.40N 110.87W
07/24/2021                   COCONINO           AZ   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS WATER OVER HIGHWAY 160 NEAR
            TONALEA AND COW SPRINGS. BOULDERS AND MUD
            ALSO IN ROADWAY.

&&

ET

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
322 AM MST SUN JUL 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W HOLBROOK            34.89N 110.25W
07/24/2021                   NAVAJO             AZ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NAVAJO COUNTY REPORTS MCCLAWS RD IS CLOSED
            DUE TO FLOODING FROM LITTLE COLORADO RIVER.

&&

ET

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