Areal Flood Warning 3, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
758 PM MST Sat Jul 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue through
Sunday night with the threat of flash flooding as well as a chance
of strong to severe storms. The area weather returns to a more
typical monsoonal pattern Monday with scattered afternoon showers
and thunderstorms through the rest of next week. Cool daytime
temperatures will warm to near normal by the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...MCS currently moving southeast central-northern
Arizona this evening. Along with a few more discrete cells out
ahead moving into Yavapai County. Severe threat with these storms
has mostly diminished, as concerns switch to flash flooding from
heavy rainfall. Showers and thunderstorm are moving quickly
across the area, however very heavy rainfall rates are occurring.
Guage reports have already shown rainfall amounts of up to an
inch in 30 minutes with the showers, along with radar estimates
of 2-3 inches per hour. Much of the activity should diminish
around 3 am, with only a few lighter showers lingering through the
rest of the morning. Updated PoPs to incorporate current radar
trends and latest hi- res guidance, otherwise forecast remains
unchanged.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /305 PM MST/...Mid level warming has quieted the
activity today across the region and cleared out the skies to
allow some daytime heating. The next wave of thunderstorms is
moving into the eastern areas along the New Mexico border with
very cold cloud tops, intense lightning activity and elevated
radar returns indicating likely severe thunderstorms. This wave
will continue to move through the region this afternoon and
overnight. Expect the heavier activity to reach the Flagstaff area
late this afternoon into the evening and to move into Yavapai
County this evening and overnight. With the soils saturated across
much of the region, Flash flooding will continue to be the main
concern with these storms. This being said, modeled soundings have
the level of free convection extending to 150 mb and CAPE
exceeding 1000. Given the added energy from the diurnal heating
today, these storms will have increased likelihood to become
severe thunderstorms with strong winds and large hail. If you
need to be out tonight, check the weather forecast and know the
terrain where you'll be. Flash floods are particularly dangerous
and night due to the flood waters being difficult to see and judge
its extent. If you see any flood waters, stay away, turn around,
don't drown.

Model guidance indicates the possibility for one to two more waves
to move through before this synoptic pattern dissipates. Another
strong wave will likely impact the area Sunday afternoon with
impacts similar to what we will see today and tonight. A less
certain wave Sunday night into Monday morning looks to be the end
of this very wet pattern.

The weather pattern will shift back into a more traditional
monsoonal pattern with afternoon thunderstorm lasting into the
evening hours driven by diurnal heating. Precipitable water
forecast remain right around one inch with the wind streamlines
remaining generally southerly off the Gulf of California for the
foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Showers and thunderstorms
continue through 12Z, with much of the activity remaining south
and west of a KPRC-KSOW line. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop again after 18Z. Areas of MVFR/IFR will be
possible within the heaviest downpours. Gusty and erratic winds
possible near thunderstorms, with winds remaining light otherwise.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue through Sunday night with a significant threat of flash
flooding. Widespread wetting rain is likely with embedded areas of
heavy rain. Storm chances decrease from east to west Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Weather returns to a more typical
monsoonal pattern with afternoon thunderstorms diminishing through
the evening each day. Daytime temperatures will warm to near-normal
by mid-week.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening FOR AZZ006>008-011>018-
037-038-040.

&&

PUBLIC...Humphreys/DB
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...DB

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

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