Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
835 PM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

The closed off low that has been positioned over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley the past few days continues to move
northward into the Midwestern CONUS. At this time, southwesterly
upper flow persists over Georgia, keeping a warm and moist airmass
in place over the forecast area through this afternoon. As the
closed low continues to move away from the area and turn eastward,
dry upper level air will spread over the area. As upper level dry
air builds into the area, precipitable water values will steadily
decrease, falling from 1.5 - 1.75 inches this afternoon to 1.0 -
1.25 inches by Friday night. Nonetheless, easterly to southeasterly
low level flow will continue to bring in ample low-level moisture,
and as multiple disturbances traverse the upper level flow on the
southeastern side of the cutoff low, they will still allow for the
development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Cloud ceilings have been slow to improve across much of north and
central Georgia this morning, and diurnal destabilization is
expected to be fairly limited across the majority of the forecast
area, and the coverage of thunderstorms is therefore expected to
remain isolated. The best warming has been observed in the far
southern tier, which is contributing to SBCAPE values of 2000-2500
J/kg. The far southern portions of the forecast area will be the
most likely location for thunderstorm development. Widespread
severe weather is not anticipated, although a strong storm or two
could produce gusty winds. Wet antecedent conditions persist
across the entire area, especially in central Georgia, where the
highest rainfall totals have been observed thus far this week.
Heavy rainfall from training storms could therefore pose a high
risk for flash flooding, and the Flash Flood Watch remains in
place through this evening.

On Friday, the closed low will re-open as it continues to move
northeast and is finally and mercifully absorbed by a broad upper
trough covering much of the eastern CONUS. The axis of the trough
will set up to the immediate west of Georgia, and disturbances
rotating around the base of the trough will allow for more scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms once again. As the trough axis
moves eastward throughout the day, rain chances will begin to
diminish from west to east across the forecast area. The highest
rain chances and amounts will be located across central and eastern
Georgia throughout the day on Friday, where an additional 1-2 inches
of rain, along with some locally higher amounts, will be possible
through the remainder of the short term period. Rain chances are
then expected to come to an end during the overnight hours Friday
night into Saturday morning as northwesterly flow sets up behind the
trough axis, leading to a drier weather pattern as we go into the
weekend.

King

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

Long term forecast looks to be primarily dry. Synoptic pattern shows
a cutoff low forming just east of the area, shifting the local CWA
into a more northwesterly upper level flow as moisture continues to
be pushed to our east. Ridging is expected to build in from the Gulf
of Mexico through the weekend with dry conditions expected. By early
next week another low forms and pushes into the northern Plains by
Wednesday. This low lifts rather quickly, but not before introducing
a little moisture across the local forecast area on Tuesday. Towards
the end of the period, the ridge begins to flatten, but overall not
really expecting much in the way of precipitation through the next 7
days.

High temperatures through the extended period are forecast to be in
the 70s in the mountains, with upper 70s to the 80s elsewhere,
around 3 to 8 degrees above average. Low temperatures will be in the
50s in the mountains, with 60s elsewhere, around 8 to 15 degrees
above average.

Reaves

AVIATION...
00Z Update...
IFR/LIFR ceilings and patchy fog are anticipated once again
starting at any time and continuing through the early morning
hours. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
to continue to develop during the night...but may not always
affect the taf sites. Winds are expected to become light and
variable overnight...gradually shifting to N to NW 5 to 8kts
by Friday afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  78  62  80 /  70  50  30  10
Atlanta         67  78  62  80 /  60  30  10   5
Blairsville     61  73  55  77 /  70  40  20  10
Cartersville    65  79  60  81 /  50  20  10   5
Columbus        67  82  63  83 /  60  20  10   5
Gainesville     66  75  61  79 /  70  40  20  10
Macon           67  82  62  83 /  70  60  20  10
Rome            66  81  60  83 /  40  20  10   5
Peachtree City  65  80  60  81 /  60  30  10   5
Vidalia         70  82  66  83 /  60  70  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for the following
zones: Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Butts...Carroll...
Catoosa...Chattahoochee...Chattooga...Cherokee...Clarke...
Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...
Douglas...Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Gordon...
Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...
Jackson...Jasper...Jones...Lamar...Lumpkin...Madison...Marion...
Meriwether...Monroe...Morgan...Murray...Muscogee...Newton...
North Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Pickens...Pike...
Polk...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...
Stewart...Talbot...Taylor...Towns...Troup...Union...Upson...
Walker...Walton...Webster...White...Whitfield.

&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Reaves
AVIATION...41

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
250 PM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-081900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
250 PM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Locally heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms will continue
through tonight, which could lead to localized flash flooding. A
Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of north and central
Georgia through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across much of north and central
Georgia Friday, and across the far eastern portions of the area
on Saturday. The primary threat with any thunderstorms will be
occasional lightning and locally heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged to
submit reports of flooding through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
539 PM EDT THU OCT 07 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WSW BRADLEY           33.05N  83.57W
10/06/2021                   JONES              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WASH OUT IN THE 200 BLOCK OF WHEELER RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100631

THIEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
602 PM EDT THU OCT 07 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S RESSEAUS CROSSROADS 33.19N  83.44W
10/06/2021                   JONES              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BRIDGE OUT AT HWY 44 AND BIG CEDAR CREEK.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100632

THIEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
628 PM EDT THU OCT 07 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E RUSSELLVILLE        32.90N  83.96W
10/06/2021                   MONROE             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREADWELL RD CLOSED IN RUSSELLVILLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100633

THIEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
635 PM EDT THU OCT 07 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CULLODEN                32.86N  84.09W
10/06/2021                   MONROE             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING AFFECTING SEVERAL BUILDINGS IN THE CULLODEN
            AREA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100634

THIEM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
704 PM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021

GAZ023-025-034-035-080030-
Hall GA-Jackson GA-Barrow GA-Gwinnett GA-
704 PM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021

...Heavy rain will impact portions of northwestern Barrow,
northeastern Gwinnett, southeastern Hall and northwestern Jackson
Counties through 830 PM EDT...

At 702 PM EDT, heavy rain was occurring at Chateau Elan, or 9 miles
northwest of Winder, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding especially
         in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesville, Jefferson, Commerce, Sugar Hill, Suwanee, Buford,
Braselton, Auburn, Flowery Branch, Maysville, Arcade, Hoschton,
Pendergrass, Talmo, Rest Haven, Candler, Peach State Speedway,
Thompsons Mill, Chateau Elan and Chestnut Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of
control due to hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3428 8360 3425 8356 3426 8353 3426 8351
      3425 8347 3424 8346 3410 8353 3399 8401
      3410 8407 3431 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 242DEG 12KT 3410 8381

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
838 PM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021

GAZ093-104-105-080115-
Macon GA-Dooly GA-Sumter GA-
838 PM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Macon,
western Dooly and northeastern Sumter Counties through 915 PM EDT...

At 838 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Flint River Wma, or 12
miles west of Vienna, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Frequent cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. If you can
         hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by
         lightning. Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding
         especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Vienna, Byromville, Lilly, Dooling, Drayton, Methvins, Flint River
Wma and Pennington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.  Electrical
appliances should not be used unless in an emergency. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3213 8412 3233 8392 3211 8373 3201 8401
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 233DEG 11KT 3211 8401

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH