Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
925 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

.UPDATE...
Removed metro ATL and additional counties from the watch.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 755 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021/

.12Z Aviation Area Forecast Discussion...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 531 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021/

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...

Tornado Watch across the CWA as Tropical Depression Fred moves
through the area this morning. Several intense bands have formed
along a few areas of convergence. These are taking advantage of a
tropical surface boundary layer that has remained well mixed and
buoyant thanks to high moisture/temperature advection to produce
enough instability to get some mini-supercell like structures
going. With this we've already seen a few spin up tornadoes, and
looks like we will likely see a few more going forward today.

Flash flooding is the other big concern, but Fred has had a bit of a
faster forward motion thus far than was expected. This has spared us
to an extent down in central Georgia for now, but the aforementioned
areas of convergence are producing torrential rainfall rates thanks
to the tropical atmosphere of 1-2" an hour, so these will likely
lead to some flooding problems as the day progresses. Additionally,
concerned about the mountains of NE GA, where additional mechanical
lift will aid in producing heavy rainfall throughout the day. Still
expecting widespread 2-4" of rainfall with heavier amounts possible
where these bands traverse and in the mountains.

Winds so far have been pretty tame outside of these bands, with
highest measured winds right at 30 mph, just below criteria. That
said, we are close, and still can't rule out something aided by the
baroclinic transition of the storm, so will continue the advisory
for now and let the next pair of eyes decide if it should continue.

Tropical Depression Fred (soon to be extratropical) will continue
through the CWA this morning into the afternoon. Expect that what is
left of the center will likely be moving out by this evening. We
still will have some chances of rain on the backside, but these
should quickly diminish overnight. Tropical airmass will stick
around for Wednesday, so chances of afternoon storms will return.

Lusk

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

Models remain fairly consistent with the long term. High pressure
over the western Atlantic will expand westward over the area.
Meanwhile an upper trough will persist over the Great Lakes. A
couple of waves passing through the trough will allow it to deepen
some into the OH Valley. By next weekend...the trough moves off
the East Coast and the ridge builds over the lower MS Valley.
Generally this means an overall diurnal pattern for showers and
thunderstorms and warming temperatures through the period.
Models indicate some drying possible as the ridge builds over the
area by the start of the next week.

41

AVIATION...
12Z Update...
IFR cigs across all TAF sites as what is left of Fred continues to
push through. Expect rain, heavy at times, through the afternoon.
Winds will be from the E, switching quickly to SE and then SW in
the 17-20Z timeframe as storm passes by metro. Winds will be 8-15
kts, gusts to 20+ at times. Expect cigs to begin to lift to MVFR
and possibly go SCT and VFR by this evening, but some uncertainty.
May see some lower vsby in the morning creep into the metro once
again.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence in cigs heights and timing tonight. High
confidence all other elements.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          79  70  88  72 /  90  50  30  30
Atlanta         78  70  88  72 / 100  30  30  30
Blairsville     74  66  84  66 / 100  60  40  40
Cartersville    78  69  89  72 /  90  30  30  30
Columbus        83  72  89  73 /  70  20  40  20
Gainesville     76  70  87  72 / 100  50  30  40
Macon           85  72  90  73 /  70  30  30  20
Rome            80  70  90  72 /  90  20  30  30
Peachtree City  80  69  89  72 /  90  20  30  20
Vidalia         87  75  88  75 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for the following
zones: Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...
Chattooga...Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Dade...
Dawson...DeKalb...Douglas...Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...
Gilmer...Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Haralson...Heard...
Henry...Jackson...Jasper...Jones...Lumpkin...Madison...Morgan...
Murray...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...
Paulding...Pickens...Polk...Putnam...Rockdale...South Fulton...
Spalding...Towns...Union...Walker...Walton...White...Whitfield.

Tornado Watch until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for the following
zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Clarke...Forsyth...Glascock...
Greene...Hall...Hancock...Jackson...Madison...Morgan...Oconee...
Oglethorpe...Putnam...Taliaferro...Walton...Warren...
Washington...Wilkes.

&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Lusk

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
546 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-181000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
546 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Tropical Depression Fred will move north across the forecast area
today accompanied by widespread showers and thunderstorms. Heavy
rain with possible flooding and gusty winds will be the main
threats across the area...with also a few tornadoes possible
mainly central Georgia. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for
much of the area through Wednesday morning. A wind advisory
remains in effect for much of central Georgia through today. Also
a Tornado Watch is in effect for much of central Georgia until
early afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Expect mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
through the period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
932 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 AM     TORNADO          2 NNE DISTRICT PATH     32.64N  83.37W
08/17/2021                   TWIGGS             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWNED NEAR PROSPECT CHURCH RD AND HWY
            96

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100519

KMM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
935 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

GAZ039-051-062-171400-
Taliaferro GA-Wilkes GA-Warren GA-
935 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
WARREN, EAST CENTRAL TALIAFERRO AND SOUTHWESTERN WILKES COUNTIES
THROUGH 1000 AM EDT...

At 935 AM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band over Raytown, or 7 miles
east of Crawfordville...moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
         localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Washington, Sharon, Ficklin, Lundberg, Rocky Creek Fire Dept.,
Raytown and Sandy Cross.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 PM EDT for east central
Georgia.

LAT...LON 3352 8271 3352 8282 3373 8291 3381 8278
      3377 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 1335Z 176DEG 21KT 3360 8277

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
941 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

GAZ062-075-171415-
Glascock GA-Warren GA-
941 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN WARREN
AND GLASCOCK COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 AM EDT...

At 940 AM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band near Agricola, or near
Gibson...moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
         localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Warrenton, Gibson, Mitchell, Edge Hill, Edgehill, Shoals, Agricola,
Jewell, Beall Springs and Reese.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 PM EDT for east central
Georgia.

LAT...LON 3314 8260 3313 8268 3315 8271 3317 8272
      3318 8274 3322 8274 3324 8275 3325 8275
      3326 8277 3331 8278 3333 8280 3334 8280
      3341 8269 3336 8256
TIME...MOT...LOC 1340Z 176DEG 21KT 3319 8267

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
948 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S NORCROSS            33.91N  84.21W
08/17/2021                   GWINNETT           GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ALONG I-85 NEAR JIMMY CARTER BLVD.
            PARTS OF THE INTERSTATE SHUT DOWN DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100520

DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
951 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DORAVILLE               33.90N  84.27W
08/17/2021                   DEKALB             GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            EXIT RAMPS TO AND FROM BUFORD HIGHWAY TO I-285 HAVE
            BEEN SHUT DOWN DUE TO HIGH WATER. REPORT FROM DORAVILLE
            PD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100521

DJN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
958 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

GAZ024-025-027-171430-
Madison GA-Banks GA-Jackson GA-
958 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN BANKS,
NORTHEASTERN JACKSON AND NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 1030
AM EDT...

At 958 AM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band near Neese, or 7 miles west
of Danielsville...moving north at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
         localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Commerce, Homer, Nicholson, Ila, Pocataligo, Neese and Banks
Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 PM EDT for northeastern
Georgia.

LAT...LON 3440 8338 3432 8339 3427 8334 3424 8334
      3426 8330 3425 8327 3407 8326 3406 8339
      3433 8354 3442 8344
TIME...MOT...LOC 1358Z 166DEG 37KT 3413 8335

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...