Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
316 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

Upper level high in the Atlantic will continue to dominate our
weather this afternoon into tomorrow. Under the aforementioned high
today is playing out very similarly to yesterday with warm
temperatures, high humidity values, light winds and slightly earlier
CI times. This afternoons/evenings storms will be diurnally driven
and will slowly dissipate as the sun goes down. Main threats with
these storms will be heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts.
Overnight, in the wake of the rain showers and thunderstorms patchy
fog will be possible across much of area.

Tomorrow afternoon continued advection of moisture off the Atlantic
will become trapped under the upper high. By tomorrow afternoon the
CWA will sit on the periphery of this high resulting in another
afternoon of scattered, diurnally driven rain showers and
thunderstorms. High temperatures tomorrow will be slightly lower than
today in response to high clouds covering the area.

28

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Only minor tweeks to the long term forecast with the primary concern
being updates for approaching Tropical Storm Fred which is currently
centered over eastern Hispaniola. Overall, there are no major updates
with this tropical cyclone outside the fact that a good portion of
the forecast area is now within the 5-day forecast cone of
uncertainty (although, as we all know by now impacts can be felt far
outside the cone!) Models are in fairly good agreement with the
storm track and evolution up until landfall overnight Sunday night
into Monday morning, however, major discrepancies still exist after
this time. Recent trends have been to nudge the track slightly
westward before landfall then hook the storm back to the northeast
as synoptic-level steering winds direct the storm, but the timing of
the northeasterly ejection of the cyclone is debated between each
run with no overall consensus. Therefore the official forecast aims
for the middle which takes the center of the track near the Atlanta
metro area around Tuesday afternoon, but this is subject to change
in terms of location, timing, and intensity. See previous discussion
for more details...

Thiem

PREV DISCUSSION...  /Issued 407 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021/

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...

First half of the extended forecast remains pretty straight-forward.
Upper-level pattern weak and disorganized. Region stays on the
northwest periphery of the western Atlantic surface ridge into the
weekend, with a secondary surface ridge building down the east coast
by early next week. Scattered to widespread, diurnally driven,
convection persists through the weekend with seasonably warm
temperatures.

Model consensus still fairly good concerning tropical activity
moving north through the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week,
however there continues to be noticeable differences in the
strength/timing/ movement of the system, now called Fred, as it
reaches the gulf coast and beyond. Still a long ways off in the
forecast, but it does still look like we will see some degree of
impacts across central and north Georgia during the first half of
next week, at least increased rainfall over the region.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
SHRA/TSRA continuing to develop across the area this afternoon
with all airfields having a chance of seeing convection on and off
between now and 22Z. In the wake of the rain showers have
included patchy fog for most sites overnight. Outside of the fog
and into tomorrow morning VFR conditions are expected. Winds
through the forecast period will remain light and variable.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low confidence on fog overnight.
High confidence on all other elements.

28

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  90  72  93 /  30  40  30  40
Atlanta         72  90  72  93 /  30  50  40  60
Blairsville     66  84  67  85 /  30  70  40  70
Cartersville    71  91  71  93 /  30  50  30  60
Columbus        73  91  73  94 /  30  50  30  50
Gainesville     71  89  72  91 /  30  50  30  50
Macon           72  92  72  95 /  30  40  20  40
Rome            72  91  72  93 /  20  50  30  60
Peachtree City  71  90  71  93 /  30  50  30  50
Vidalia         73  91  73  93 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
303 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-121915-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
303 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered diurnal thunderstorms are expected, mainly this
afternoon and evening. These storms may be strong to severe with the
primary hazard being strong, potentially damaging wind gusts,
brief periods of heavy rainfall, small hail, and occasional cloud-
to- ground lighting.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day
Thursday through Tuesday, most numerous during the afternoons and
evenings. The primary hazards with any thunderstorm will be heavy
rain, gusty winds and lightning. Although no widespread severe
weather is expected at this time, an isolated severe storm cannot be
ruled out with damaging winds as the main threat.

Although much uncertainty still remains, there is a possibility that
a tropical low will impact the southeastern U.S., including portions
of central and north Georgia, early next week. Please continue to
monitor the forecast for further developments.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
645 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ061-062-075-112315-
Hancock GA-Glascock GA-Warren GA-
645 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN WARREN,
NORTHEASTERN HANCOCK AND WEST CENTRAL GLASCOCK COUNTIES THROUGH 715
PM EDT...

At 645 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Mayfield, or near
Warrenton...moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Warrenton, Norwood, Camak, Shoals, Jewell, Beall Springs and
Mayfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3337 8288 3347 8281 3344 8258 3322 8273
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 298DEG 9KT 3339 8277

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
649 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ006-112315-
Fannin GA-
649 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FANNIN
COUNTY THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

At 649 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Blue Ridge...moving
south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Blue Ridge and Morganton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3490 8417 3478 8422 3478 8430 3481 8432
      3481 8433 3482 8433 3483 8436 3484 8437
      3484 8438 3487 8439 3491 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 340DEG 10KT 3488 8434

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
700 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ006-008-112330-
Union GA-Fannin GA-
700 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN UNION
AND NORTHEASTERN FANNIN COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

At 700 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Nottely Dam, or 9
miles northwest of Blairsville. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Blairsville, Hemp, Nottely Dam and Ivy Log.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3498 8395 3497 8394 3486 8396 3486 8419
      3492 8416 3495 8418 3499 8414 3499 8394
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 163DEG 3KT 3495 8410

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
712 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ002-011-012-019-112345-
Chattooga GA-Walker GA-Gordon GA-Floyd GA-
712 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLOYD,
SOUTHEASTERN WALKER, WEST CENTRAL GORDON AND NORTHEASTERN CHATTOOGA
COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

At 712 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Suttles Mill, or 7
miles southeast of Lafayette. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Lafayette, Naomi, Subligna, Suttles Mill, Villanow, Everett Springs
and Lake Marvin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3469 8535 3473 8517 3472 8517 3472 8510
      3448 8504 3443 8522
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 163DEG 3KT 3462 8521

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
714 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ082-083-095-112345-
Bibb GA-Houston GA-Twiggs GA-
714 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL BIBB,
WEST CENTRAL TWIGGS AND NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM
EDT...

At 714 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Elberta, or 13 miles
south of Macon. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...nickel sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Warner Robins, Centerville, Robins Air Force Base, Elberta and Middle
Georgia Regional Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3254 8367 3260 8372 3261 8371 3262 8372
      3263 8372 3264 8373 3265 8373 3265 8371
      3266 8371 3273 8361 3263 8352
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 058DEG 1KT 3264 8361

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88IN
MAX WIND GUST...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
722 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ078-089-120000-
Harris GA-Muscogee GA-
722 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
MUSCOGEE AND SOUTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

At 722 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Green Island Hills, or
near Columbus. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Columbus, Bibb City, Highland Park, Laurel Hills, Green Island Hills,
Columbus Metropolitan Airport, Rose Hill and Fortson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3265 8501 3265 8487 3257 8488 3254 8492
      3247 8494 3246 8500 3250 8500 3252 8501
      3253 8502 3255 8503
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 059DEG 1KT 3255 8497

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH