Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
316 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

Upper level high in the Atlantic will continue to dominate our
weather this afternoon into tomorrow. Under the aforementioned high
today is playing out very similarly to yesterday with warm
temperatures, high humidity values, light winds and slightly earlier
CI times. This afternoons/evenings storms will be diurnally driven
and will slowly dissipate as the sun goes down. Main threats with
these storms will be heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts.
Overnight, in the wake of the rain showers and thunderstorms patchy
fog will be possible across much of area.

Tomorrow afternoon continued advection of moisture off the Atlantic
will become trapped under the upper high. By tomorrow afternoon the
CWA will sit on the periphery of this high resulting in another
afternoon of scattered, diurnally driven rain showers and
thunderstorms. High temperatures tomorrow will be slightly lower than
today in response to high clouds covering the area.

28

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Only minor tweeks to the long term forecast with the primary concern
being updates for approaching Tropical Storm Fred which is currently
centered over eastern Hispaniola. Overall, there are no major updates
with this tropical cyclone outside the fact that a good portion of
the forecast area is now within the 5-day forecast cone of
uncertainty (although, as we all know by now impacts can be felt far
outside the cone!) Models are in fairly good agreement with the
storm track and evolution up until landfall overnight Sunday night
into Monday morning, however, major discrepancies still exist after
this time. Recent trends have been to nudge the track slightly
westward before landfall then hook the storm back to the northeast
as synoptic-level steering winds direct the storm, but the timing of
the northeasterly ejection of the cyclone is debated between each
run with no overall consensus. Therefore the official forecast aims
for the middle which takes the center of the track near the Atlanta
metro area around Tuesday afternoon, but this is subject to change
in terms of location, timing, and intensity. See previous discussion
for more details...

Thiem

PREV DISCUSSION...  /Issued 407 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021/

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...

First half of the extended forecast remains pretty straight-forward.
Upper-level pattern weak and disorganized. Region stays on the
northwest periphery of the western Atlantic surface ridge into the
weekend, with a secondary surface ridge building down the east coast
by early next week. Scattered to widespread, diurnally driven,
convection persists through the weekend with seasonably warm
temperatures.

Model consensus still fairly good concerning tropical activity
moving north through the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week,
however there continues to be noticeable differences in the
strength/timing/ movement of the system, now called Fred, as it
reaches the gulf coast and beyond. Still a long ways off in the
forecast, but it does still look like we will see some degree of
impacts across central and north Georgia during the first half of
next week, at least increased rainfall over the region.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
SHRA/TSRA continuing to develop across the area this afternoon
with all airfields having a chance of seeing convection on and off
between now and 22Z. In the wake of the rain showers have
included patchy fog for most sites overnight. Outside of the fog
and into tomorrow morning VFR conditions are expected. Winds
through the forecast period will remain light and variable.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low confidence on fog overnight.
High confidence on all other elements.

28

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  90  72  93 /  30  40  30  40
Atlanta         72  90  72  93 /  30  50  40  60
Blairsville     66  84  67  85 /  30  70  40  70
Cartersville    71  91  71  93 /  30  50  30  60
Columbus        73  91  73  94 /  30  50  30  50
Gainesville     71  89  72  91 /  30  50  30  50
Macon           72  92  72  95 /  30  40  20  40
Rome            72  91  72  93 /  20  50  30  60
Peachtree City  71  90  71  93 /  30  50  30  50
Vidalia         73  91  73  93 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
303 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-121915-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
303 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered diurnal thunderstorms are expected, mainly this
afternoon and evening. These storms may be strong to severe with the
primary hazard being strong, potentially damaging wind gusts,
brief periods of heavy rainfall, small hail, and occasional cloud-
to- ground lighting.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day
Thursday through Tuesday, most numerous during the afternoons and
evenings. The primary hazards with any thunderstorm will be heavy
rain, gusty winds and lightning. Although no widespread severe
weather is expected at this time, an isolated severe storm cannot be
ruled out with damaging winds as the main threat.

Although much uncertainty still remains, there is a possibility that
a tropical low will impact the southeastern U.S., including portions
of central and north Georgia, early next week. Please continue to
monitor the forecast for further developments.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
415 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ037-047-049-050-112045-
Morgan GA-Walton GA-Greene GA-Oconee GA-
415 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OCONEE,
NORTH CENTRAL MORGAN, EAST CENTRAL WALTON AND NORTHWESTERN GREENE
COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

At 415 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Farmington, or 7 miles
south of Watkinsville. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Watkinsville, North High Shoals, Bostwick, Bishop, Eastville,
Farmington and Apalachee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3392 8345 3392 8343 3393 8343 3370 8331
      3365 8350 3384 8360 3393 8347
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 258DEG 2KT 3376 8345

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
416 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ027-038-112045-
Madison GA-Oglethorpe GA-
416 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
OGLETHORPE AND SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

At 416 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Comer, or near
Danielsville. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Danielsville, Comer, Colbert, Arnoldsville, Carlton, Diamond Hill,
Smithonia, Watson Mill Bridge State Park, Point Peter and Paoli.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3388 8322 3413 8331 3422 8308 3417 8310
      3415 8306 3412 8305 3411 8303 3410 8304
      3408 8301 3408 8300 3405 8299 3403 8293
      3401 8294 3401 8291 3400 8288
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 258DEG 2KT 3409 8314

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
421 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ031-032-112045-
Cobb GA-Paulding GA-
421 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
PAULDING AND WEST CENTRAL COBB COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

At 421 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over New Hope, or near
Dallas. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cross Roads, Burnt Hickory Ridge, New Hope and Lost Mountain Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3396 8468 3389 8473 3396 8485 3400 8492
      3408 8485
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 140DEG 2KT 3397 8483

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
423 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ013-014-021-022-112100-
Dawson GA-Cherokee GA-Forsyth GA-Pickens GA-
423 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
CHEROKEE, NORTHWESTERN FORSYTH, SOUTHWESTERN DAWSON AND SOUTHEASTERN
PICKENS COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

At 423 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Hollis Lathem
Reservoir, or 8 miles southwest of Dawsonville. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Ball Ground, Silver City, Reavis Mountain, Hightower and Hollis
Lathem Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3430 8428 3433 8437 3448 8428 3435 8407
      3428 8419
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 230DEG 3KT 3434 8423

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
441 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ062-112115-
Warren GA-
441 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WARREN
COUNTY THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

At 441 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Mesena, or near
Thomson. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Camak, Cadley and Mesena.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3343 8265 3352 8270 3357 8263 3344 8258
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 202DEG 2KT 3350 8261

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
444 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ036>038-049-050-112115-
Morgan GA-Oglethorpe GA-Clarke GA-Greene GA-Oconee GA-
444 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE,
CENTRAL MORGAN, SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE, NORTHWESTERN GREENE AND
SOUTHWESTERN OGLETHORPE COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

At 444 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Barnett Shoals to near Greshamville...and moving
southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Madison, Lexington, Crawford, Rutledge, North High Shoals, Bostwick,
Arnoldsville, Bishop, Maxeys, Buckhead, Athens-Clarke County,
Stephens, Wrayswood, Hard Labor Creek State Park, Hutchings, Barnett
Shoals, Greshamville, Farmington and Apalachee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3382 8350 3357 8367 3354 8350 3357 8345
      3356 8332 3393 8306 3394 8327 3382 8337
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 043DEG 8KT 3383 8326 3362 8337

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH